铭文引发加密世界“集邮潮” 现在进行到哪个阶段了?

币圈资讯 阅读:44 2024-04-22 11:52:34 评论:0
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作者:王骏,inpower创始合伙人;来源:RWA观察

几乎整个币圈都在“打铭文”!

昨晚Fil铭文发布,早上起来就打光了。

圈外的人着急得跺脚,买都不知道怎么买。

1.铭文是个什么东西?

关于铭文的技术细节,有兴趣的可以去自行搜索哈。

如果说比特币最早的定义是一种点对点的支付系统,那铭文更类似于支付的备注。

然后因为一些更新,这个备注的数据量可以支持变得很大,大到可以装比较小的图片。

甚至还引发了与核心开发者的一些争议。

但是这些都没影响到铭文价格疯狂上涨。

黑格尔说“存在即是合理”,但是我更相信圣经里面说的“太阳底下无新事”。

找到类似的事情,更有助于我们把握机遇(或者避坑)。

如果硬要把加密货币比作股票(别拿加密货币和股票比了,这太侮辱加密货币了),那现在的铭文比三十年前的集邮热,只强不弱。

如果按这个类比的话,我们大概可以这样理解:

比特币生态-某国市场

Ordinals协议-某国邮政局

Brc20各种铭文-某国各种系列邮票

其他公链铭文-其他国家系列邮票

2.也是有国家把发行邮票当主业的

铭文能不能撑起一条公链我不知道,但是邮票发行事业可以撑起一个国家。

列支敦士登公国是个正儿八经的欧洲国家,而且还是日耳曼人讲德语的。

邮票是这个国家的重要经济来源之一,行情好的时候能占国民经济总收入的10%。

根据列支敦士登公国邮票发行的经验,邮票发行得掌握这么几个要点:

一是邮票图案清新,色彩协调,印制精美。(设计要过硬)

二是印刷量少,每图基本上稳定在100万枚以内,其中80%被收进集邮者的集邮册里。其他国家的邮票印刷量,每图在2000-10000万枚之间,当然大部分系当邮资用的。(铭文数量少)

三是每年发行邮票套数很少,仅出约12-25枚左右邮票,每枚的印量都在50万枚以上,其中只有20%用于寄信,所以一般集邮爱好者都能买的着、买得起。(铭文种类少)

3.当年邮市火热秒杀铭文

当然也有国家不遵守上述第二/三条,也能发行不错的。

这一般要掌握另一个独门手艺:

1980年的时候,”猴票“发行,是中华人民共和国发行的第一张生肖邮票。

可以认为这种邮票就是为了收藏用的,对应今年也算是铭文元年。

猴票的面值从0.08元一路飙升,最高时突破2000元,涨幅2万多倍。

当时邮票火热场面是这样的:

1985年4月《梅花》小型张发行时,邮人纷纷抢购。一米宽、几公里的队伍从北京和平门中国邮票总公司的营业部一直排到宣武门,约有3万人之多。公安部门害怕出事,出动了 100多名警察维持秩序。在上海、南京等地,邮票公司的门窗被挤破、柜台被挤翻。(铭文Gas费高涨)

此后,国家邮政局逐渐加大邮票发行量,三五千万的发行量很常见,有的甚至发行了上亿枚。例如1985年发行的《熊猫》小型张1200多万枚,对于以前仅几十万到上百万发行量的小型张来说,绝对是个“天量”,而与1997年发行的5000多万枚的《香港回归》小型张相比,又是小巫见大巫。(各种铭文批量发行)

与此同时,集邮者人数迅速扩容。一组数据显示,1980年全国集邮协会会员只有十多万人,到了1985年已增到了500万人,1990年时达到800万人,1994 年更猛增至1500万人。(参与人数暴涨100倍)

邮市最高峰的时候是这样的:要买民国等早期邮票、实寄封却十分困难。专业集邮者将这种形态的邮市比喻成了“批发市场”,这个市场最大的特征就是以新邮为主的“批发”交易形式,邮票也可以像卖白菜那样百斤千斤地叫卖,这在全世界都是独一无二的奇观!(习惯就好)

与此同时,国家邮政也推出了四次销毁邮票的举措。1996年,中国邮政第一次销毁邮票。1997年邮市大行情便由此而生;2001年,邮政再次举起了销毁大旗,但销毁数量和品种依然未公诸于世;2003年上半年,邮政第三次舞起销毁大旗,据悉此次销毁了总面值11.9亿元的库存邮票;2004年,面值高达30亿元的库存纪特邮票被销毁,成为了中国邮政历史上最大规模的销毁举措。(销毁机制很早就有)

然而邮人发现,虽然邮政推出的销毁规模不断加大,但每一次销毁之后所刺激的行情波澜却一次弱于一次。有集邮者指出,所谓的销毁邮票根本不是从集邮事业的角度出发而做出的决定,邮政管理部门只是在为自己修理邮市这台破败不堪的“提款机”而已。(韭菜觉醒)

到现在集邮市场还在,但是某国的集邮市场差不多消亡了。

4.铭文比邮票如何?

从上文可以看出,某国邮票市场的主要痛点有:

  • 发行量太大

  • 优质邮票(民国/实寄封)买不到

  • 销毁/库存情况不透明

  • 管理部门治理只割韭菜,而不考虑集邮事业

对于铭文来说,面临的情况会好一些:

  • 优质铭文是公开的(各种头部),不存在买不到

  • 销毁/库存情况公开透明

  • 各种铭文自由竞争,没有主管部门。(类似于市场上可以买到全世界各国邮票)

5.现在进行到哪个阶段了?

在商言商,CX言CX

邮票市场炒作起来最重要的就是发动群众,当初集邮是一个全国只有十几万人参与的小众活动,变成全国几千万人参与的公众事业,或者按最近时髦的词,叫社会实验。

现在铭文市场虽然火爆,但各个主流铭文的持有者也就一万左右,还有很大的上涨空间。

可能至少持有者人数翻十倍才算到炒作成功吧,否则都是圈内自嗨。

参考邮票市场,现在顶多才是80年代初期。

现在打铭文还有点难度,购买铭文也不简单。

交易市场的建立是牛市的必备条件。

P.S.应该会有人问,为什么不用NFT做比较而用铭文?


Author Wang Jun started to observe the source of the partner. Almost the whole coin circle was typing inscriptions. Last night, the inscription was released and it was exhausted in the morning. People outside the circle were so anxious that they stamped their feet and didn't know how to buy it. Those interested in the technical details of the inscription can search for it themselves. If the earliest definition of Bitcoin is a peer-to-peer payment system, the inscription is more similar to the payment note, and then it can be greatly reduced because of the data volume that can be supported by some updates. The picture even caused some controversy with the core developers, but these did not affect the crazy rise in the price of the inscription. Hegel said that existence is reasonable, but I believe that the Bible says that there is nothing new under the sun, and finding similar things is more helpful for us to seize opportunities or avoid pits. If we insist on comparing cryptocurrency to stocks, it is too insulting to compare cryptocurrency with stocks. Then the current inscription is only stronger than the stamp collecting craze 30 years ago. If we follow this analogy, we will probably It can be understood as follows: bitcoin ecology, a country's market agreement, various inscriptions in a country's post office, various series of stamps in a country, and other series of stamps in other countries are also inscriptions in countries that take issuing stamps as their main business. Can you support a public chain? I don't know, but the cause of stamp issuance can support a country. Liechtenstein is a serious European country, and German-speaking stamps are one of the important economic sources of this country. When the market is good, it can occupy the national economy. According to the experience of stamp issuing in the Principality of Liechtenstein, there are several key points to be grasped in stamp issuing. First, the stamp pattern is fresh, the color is coordinated, and the exquisite design should be excellent. Second, the printing quantity of each picture is basically stable within 10,000 pieces, among which the printing quantity of stamps from other countries is between 10,000 pieces. Of course, most of them are used as postage inscriptions. Third, the number of sets of stamps issued each year is very small, and only about 10,000 stamps are printed. Only for sending letters, so ordinary stamp collectors can afford it. There are few kinds of inscriptions. Of course, some countries can also issue good inscriptions if they don't abide by the above-mentioned Article 23. Generally, it is necessary to master another unique craft year. When the monkey ticket is issued, it is the first zodiac stamp issued in People's Republic of China (PRC). It can be considered that this stamp is for collection. This year is also the first year of inscriptions. At that time, the face value of the monkey ticket soared from Yuan all the way to the highest, exceeding 10,000 times. The hot scene of tickets is like this. When the plum blossom stamp sheetlet was issued in January, postal people rushed to buy a team with a width of one meter and several kilometers, from the sales department of Beijing Heping Gate China Stamp Corporation to Xuanwumen. There were about 10,000 people. The public security department was afraid of an accident and dispatched many policemen to maintain order. In Shanghai, Nanjing and other places, the doors and windows of stamp companies were crushed and the counters were smashed. Since then, the State Post Bureau has gradually increased the circulation of stamps by 35 million. Some even issued hundreds of millions, for example, in the year. There are more than 10,000 panda sheetlets, which are absolutely a huge amount compared with the 10,000 Hong Kong Reunification Sheetlets issued in 2000. At the same time, the number of stamp collectors has expanded rapidly. A set of data shows that the number of members of the National Philatelic Association has only increased to more than 100,000 in 2000, reaching 10,000 in 2000, and the number of people participating in the stamp market has soared to double the peak of the postal market. It is very difficult to seal stamps in the early days. Professional stamp collectors compare this form of postal market to a wholesale market. The biggest feature of this market is that stamps can also be sold in the form of wholesale transactions, which is like selling cabbage. This is a unique spectacle habit all over the world. At the same time, the State Post has also launched four measures to destroy stamps. In 2008, China Post destroyed stamps for the first time, and the postal market was booming in 2008. The postal service once again raised the banner of destruction, but destroyed it. The quantity and variety have not yet been made public. In the first half of 1998, the postal service waved the banner of destruction for the third time. It is reported that the inventory stamps with a total face value of 100 million yuan and an annual face value of 100 million yuan have been destroyed, which has become the largest destruction measure in the history of China Post. The destruction mechanism has existed for a long time. However, the postman found that although the scale of destruction launched by the postal service has been increasing, the market turmoil stimulated by each destruction is weaker than that once. Some philatelists pointed out that the so-called destruction of stamps is not from the collection at all. From the perspective of postal service, the postal management department is only repairing the ruined cash machine of the postal market for itself. The leek has awakened to the fact that the philatelic market is still there, but the philatelic market in a certain country has almost died out. How can we see from the above that the main pain point of the stamp market in a certain country is that the circulation is too large, high-quality stamps can't be bought, and the inventory can't be destroyed. The management department only cuts leeks without considering the situation faced by the philatelic industry for inscriptions. It will be better. High-quality inscriptions are public. There is no such thing as being unable to buy or destroy stocks. All kinds of inscriptions are open and transparent. There is no competent department to compete freely. What stage has it reached now? In the business-to-business stamp market, the most important thing is to mobilize the masses to collect stamps. At the beginning, it was a minority activity with only 100,000 people participating in the country, and it became a public undertaking with tens of millions of people participating in the country. According to the latest fashionable words, it is called social experiment. Now the inscription. Although the market is hot, there are only about 10,000 holders of major inscriptions, and there is still a lot of room for growth. Maybe at least the number of holders will be tenfold before the hype is successful. Otherwise, it is all self-satisfied in the circle. The reference stamp market is at most the early 1990 s, and it is still a little difficult to type inscriptions now. It is not simple to buy inscriptions. The establishment of a trading market is a necessary condition for a bull market. Someone should ask why inscriptions are used instead of comparison. 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台

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