非共识大赌场:解读加密市场多元走势和投资策略

币圈资讯 阅读:42 2024-04-22 11:50:58 评论:0
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作者:Rui,HashKey Capita 来源:X @YeruiZhang

非共识大赌场,有胆你就来,来就赚!

这一篇本来是打算周天发,但是一路奔波来台北出差,所以没来得及写,然后今天就暴跌,索性整体性的写一写我的思路。这周没有诗,但我这句话是目前市场最佳写照。

1、CME反复震荡,缺口或将补

上周一有说到缺口是会补的,在实际ETF通过前市场会有反复,于是今天的CME开盘后的最低点就是缺口的上部42K的位置,但还没有下去补。周三有说到看CME的持仓报告是接下来行情的主要观察点,周六的报告很明显反映大户和经济商都在加空,只有纯多的Asset mgmt在开多,而Open interest还在涨,这个数据我个人理解是一致合力做多结束,分歧到来,市场在接下来的一两周至少应该是震荡。个人认为最理想的状态是回到39K然后在39K-44K之间宽幅震荡,其次就是不回踩缺口,42K-44K的窄幅震荡,可能怎么走要看今晚美国人怎么想。但说实话,圣诞期间的CME交投情绪应该一般,所以个人倾向于第一种。

2、ETH系的变数和Layer2的叙事

ETH系好像发生了鬼故事,因为坎昆升级的时间确定导致某天ETH系整体都涨,但是也就仅仅一天,这里可能需要更多坎昆升级的利好,又到了紧盯开发者会议的时候了。这里个人认为明线就是Layer2的叙事,暗线可以看看有没有Staking方面的新玩意出来,虽然Validator Queue的排队已经清零,但如果Layer2都像是Blast一样把手上的ETH都质押进去呢?以及这里Eigenlayer的新玩意会上了,或许这两个会改变ETH系疲软的情况。

3、BTC相关资产的Alpha标的

BTC相关的资产在BTC不涨之后终于消停消停了,但是Ordi依然有着极佳的共识,很多大户都希望暴跌抄底Ordi,因为ETF是明牌,那么大家都在寻找BTC的Alpha标的,目前看只有Ordi。这里个人认为Brc20会比较难(很多其他链的铭文出来),反而是另类的Btc生态比如说BTC NFT这些会有些标的冒出来,主打的还是概念,财富效应。并且明年一季度会有一批BitVM和BitEVM或许有很好的机会。

4、非共识大赌场的崛起

其他公链则是主打我标题说的,非共识大赌场,在Sol之后,陆续看到Avax、Dot甚至Ada都开始拉盘,可谓是大家越不看好谁谁拉的越猛,这里其实可以考虑布局这些公链上最原生,最大的Dapp(大多数是Defi,这个策略其实上周天做蛮好的),毕竟Alt L1的一大特点是本币拉盘链上的大应用会跟着拉,然后好的走起了飞轮,不好的就一起崩盘。

5、非共识玩意的涌现

最后就是难以定义的非共识玩意比如说Depin、Ai等等,这些币主要出没于抹茶,只要有叙事一天拉个100-200%不成问题,属于Degen(但非Defi Degen)的游戏,我觉得策略就是MC 5M/50M是两个坎,能过坎则有机会更进一步。50M以上基本等的就是交易所Listing了。

6、新币的期待

新币方面一直在等待有新的顶级IDO/IEO出现,OKX上了Ace,这是一个及其会讲故事,及其会利用社区情绪的项目,目前针对的是台湾/韩国用户为主,并且后续有治理/游戏代币的币等上,个人觉得上线表现会超过大家的预期。


The author comes from a non-consensus casino. If you have the courage, you will make money. This article was originally intended to be sent to Taipei on business on Sunday, so I didn't have time to write it, and then I plunged today. I simply wrote my thoughts as a whole. There is no poem this week, but my sentence is the best portrayal of the current market. It was said last Monday that the gap will be filled, and the market will be repeated before it actually passes. So the lowest point after today's opening is the upper position of the gap, but it has not been filled on Wednesday. Speaking of the position report, it is the main observation point of the next market. Saturday's report clearly reflects that large companies and economic firms are adding space, only pure ones are opening more and still rising. My personal understanding is that we should work together to end differences and come to the market in the next week or two. Personally, the ideal state should be to return and then fluctuate widely. Secondly, it depends on what Americans think tonight, but to be honest, during Christmas. The trading mood should be average, so I personally tend to the variables of the first series and the narrative system seems to have a ghost story. Because the time of Cancun upgrade is determined, the whole system will rise one day, but it will only be one day. It is time to keep an eye on the developer meeting. Personally, I think the open line is the narrative dark line. We can see if there are any new things coming out. Although the queue has been cleared, what if all the hands are pledged as if it were the same? The new gadgets here are at the meeting. Perhaps these two related assets will change the weak situation, and the related assets will finally stop after not rising, but there is still an excellent consensus. Many large households hope to plummet to the bottom because it is winning numbers, so the target that everyone is looking for is only here. Personally, I think it will be more difficult for many other chains to come out, but it will be an alternative ecology. For example, these will have some targets, mainly the concept wealth effect, and there will be one in the first quarter of next year. A group of non-consensus big casinos may have a good chance. The rise of other public chains is the mainstay. The non-consensus big casinos mentioned in my title have been seen one after another and even started to pull. It can be said that the less optimistic people are about who is pulling, the more fierce they are. In fact, we can consider the layout of these public chains. Most of them are this strategy. In fact, they did quite well last week. After all, one of the major features is that the big applications on the local currency pull chain will follow, and then the flywheel will collapse together if it is not good. In the end, there are non-consensus gadgets that are difficult to define. For example, these coins are mainly found in matcha. As long as there is a narrative, it is not a problem to play a game that belongs to but is not. I think the strategy is that if two hurdles can pass, there will be a chance to go further. Above all, the exchange has expected new coins. The new coins have been waiting for a new top to appear. This is a project that can tell stories and make use of community emotions. At present, it is aimed at Taiwan Province and South Korea users, and the coins that manage game tokens in the future will be more than everyone's expectations. 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台

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