美联储利率飙升 比特币市场闪崩?

币圈资讯 阅读:37 2024-04-22 11:45:20 评论:0
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作者:Daniel Kuhn,coindesk 翻译:善欧巴,比特币买卖交易网

比特币暴跌!周一盘中跌幅7.5%,创8月中旬以来最大跌幅!

比特币今年以来仍然上涨超过150%,但盘中突然出现的大幅下跌提醒了人们,这个最大加密货币的波动性依然巨大。

上周,比特币似乎势不可挡,行业许多长期存在的难题似乎都得到了解决。那么,为什么今天比特币会突然暴跌?

或许,我们应该先从它之前上涨的原因说起。

例如,最大的加密货币交易所币安同意向美国当局支付43亿美元的罚款以继续运营,这笔“历史性的”罚款似乎不会让币安元气大伤。这一和解也让美国证券交易委员会 (SEC) 与美国交易所 Coinbase 和 Kraken 之间的法律纠纷看起来没那么糟糕了。

总体而言,美国的监管环境似乎正在放松。虽然还没有达到“监管清晰”的程度,但高层立法者已经提出了相关提案,暗示了未来的发展方向。

此外,一些可预见的事件,比如明年的比特币“减半”(网络将减半挖出的比特币数量),以及潜在的 SEC 批准比特币 ETF 申请,也推动了比特币价格的上涨。市场观察者一直在讨论这两件事,可以说 ETF 是最近比特币价格上涨的主要推动力。

最后,还有宏观经济因素。比特币有时被称为“数字黄金”,因为它理论上可以像黄金一样充当价值储存手段,因此其价格与实物黄金一起上涨。近期金价创下收盘历史新高,部分原因是通胀担忧。

美联储利率飙升,加密货币市场闪崩?

美国联邦储备委员会为遏制通胀和抑制过热的经济而将利率升至21世纪以来的最高水平。许多专家认为,美联储的工作即将完成,甚至有人表示,美联储可能会在明年上半年回过头来降低利率。

降低利率对比特币有利,就像对经济活动有利一样,它通过降低借贷成本“使钱变得更便宜”,这意味着市场上流通的资金会增加。此外,由于较低的利率会降低政府债券等更安全的投资的吸引力,导致预期投资回报降低,因此这些资本可能会沿着风险曲线向下流动,流向像加密货币这样的资产类别。

我并不真正理解导致今天“闪崩”的原因,这场崩盘始于周日晚上的一次市场修正。与加密货币相关的股票,如 MARA 和 RIOT,今天都出现两位数的跌幅,即使科技股重仓的纳斯达克指数有望上涨。

许多人,比如 VDX 研究负责人 Greta Yuan,将目光投向了宏观因素。周五,一份强于预期的就业报告出炉,华尔街日报的“美联储风向标”记者 Nick Timiraos 预测,美联储本身将在 2024 年降息。“微调”的原因可能是“超出预期的非农就业数据和更低的失业率,”她说。

与此同时,Metalpha 高级分析师 Lucy Hu 昨晚告诉 CoinDesk,这可能是“理性的获利过程”的一部分,这意味着交易者基本上赚到了他们想要的钱,并决定套现。CoinDesk 的市场观察员 Omkar Godbole 称,加密货币衍生品的资金利率“过热”。

虽然加密货币衍生品市场中的杠杆程度可能无法解释市场修正的始作俑者问题,即到底是什么导致了市场修正,但它确实有助于解释为什么一种资产会在如此短的时间内跌幅如此之大。Godbole 还使用了诸如“过度的看涨杠杆”和“多头头寸过度拥挤”等词语。

当交易者过度杠杆化时,他们本质上是在交易借来的钱。这意味着他们正在利用并不真正存在的资本来推高资产价格,同时,如果价格下跌,他们可能会被清算,这对整个市场产生更大的影响。杠杆很好,直到它不好为止。

这也意味着,无论是好是坏,杠杆程度被重置到了一个更健康的状态。读者朋友们,这在加密世界中要记住的一个教训:当一切看起来利好时,价格可能会因为一个小小的闪失而大幅波动。所以保持理性,认识到波动性是双向的……


The author's translation of Shanouba Bitcoin Trading Network Bitcoin plummeted on Monday, the biggest drop since the middle of the month. Bitcoin has still risen more than this year, but the sudden sharp drop in intraday trading reminds people that the volatility of this largest cryptocurrency is still huge. Last week, Bitcoin seemed to be overwhelming. Many long-standing problems in the industry seem to have been solved. So why did Bitcoin suddenly plummet today? Maybe we should start with the reasons for its previous rise, such as the biggest increase. The secret currency exchange, Qian An, agreed to pay a fine of $ billion to the US authorities to continue its operation. This historic fine does not seem to hurt Qian An's vitality. This settlement also makes the legal dispute between the US Securities and Exchange Commission and the US exchange and the United States look less bad. Generally speaking, the regulatory environment in the United States seems to be relaxing, although it has not yet reached the level of clear supervision, high-level legislators have put forward relevant proposals, suggesting the future development direction, and some foreseeable events. For example, next year's bitcoin will be halved, and the number of bitcoins dug up by the network and the potential approval of bitcoin applications have also pushed up the price of bitcoin. Market observers have been discussing these two things, which can be said to be the main driving force for the recent increase in bitcoin prices. Finally, there are macroeconomic factors. Bitcoin is sometimes called digital gold because it can theoretically serve as a means of value storage like gold, so its price has risen together with physical gold, and recently the price of gold has reached a record high. The reason is that inflation worries about the soaring interest rate of the Federal Reserve and the collapse of the cryptocurrency market. In order to curb inflation and curb the overheated economy, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates to the highest level in the century. Many experts believe that the Fed's work will be completed soon, and some even say that the Fed may go back to lower interest rates in the first half of next year. Lowering interest rates is as beneficial to Bitcoin as it is to economic activities. It makes money cheaper by reducing borrowing costs, which means that funds circulating in the market will In addition, because the lower interest rate will reduce the attractiveness of safer investments such as government bonds, the expected return on investment will decrease, so these capitals may flow down the risk curve to asset classes such as cryptocurrency. I don't really understand the reasons for today's flash crash. This crash began with a market correction on Sunday night, and the stocks related to cryptocurrency, such as today, have a double-digit decline, even though the Nasdaq index, where technology stocks are heavily invested, is expected to rise by many people, such as. The head of the research turned his attention to macro factors. A stronger-than-expected employment report was released on Friday. The reporter of the Wall Street Journal's Fed Wind Vane predicted that the reason for the fine-tuning of the Fed's interest rate cut in may be the non-agricultural employment data that exceeded expectations and the lower unemployment rate. She said that at the same time, senior analysts told last night that this may be part of a rational profit-making process, which means that traders basically earned the money they wanted and decided to cash out. Market observers said that cryptocurrency derivatives. Although the degree of leverage in the cryptocurrency derivatives market may not explain the initiator of the market correction, that is, what caused the market correction, it does help to explain why an asset has fallen so much in such a short period of time, and words such as excessive bullish leverage and overcrowded long positions are used. When traders are over-leveraged, they are essentially trading borrowed money, which means they are using capital that does not really exist. At the same time, if the price falls, they may be liquidated, which will have a greater impact on the whole market. The leverage is good until it is bad, which also means that whether it is good or bad, the leverage is reset to a healthier state. Readers, this is a lesson to remember in the encrypted world. When everything looks good, the price may fluctuate greatly because of a small mistake, so stay rational and realize that volatility is two-way. 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台

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