对号入座 火爆出圈的赛道都具备哪些要素?

币圈资讯 阅读:46 2024-04-22 11:42:33 评论:0
美化布局示例

欧易(OKX)最新版本

【遇到注册下载问题请加文章最下面的客服微信】永久享受返佣20%手续费!

APP下载   全球官网 大陆官网

币安(Binance)最新版本

币安交易所app【遇到注册下载问题请加文章最下面的客服微信】永久享受返佣20%手续费!

APP下载   官网地址

火币HTX最新版本

火币老牌交易所【遇到注册下载问题请加文章最下面的客服微信】永久享受返佣20%手续费!

APP下载   官网地址

 作者:鉴叔

一、热度因何而起

爆火的原因就只有一个,就是能够让更多的人知道并参与进去,所以下面的影响因素全是围绕这一点进行分析的。需要注意的是,一个赛道能够爆火的理由并不一定包含下面所有因素。

1.参与门槛低

参与门槛低包含这几个要点:

  • 原理简单容易理解

原理简单意味着即使不了解区块链行业的圈外人也能很快接受,所以传播起来也比原理复杂的项目更加容易。我们在一些区块链媒体进行“出圈”二字的搜索时,出现的相关赛道最多的是 NFT 和链游。像链游这种原本 Web2 或 TradFi 有的事物,圈外人理解和接受起来的也更容易。复杂的原理是阻隔圈外人的围墙,正如 VISA 的研报《加密货币现象:消费者态度和使用》中所述:“55% 非加密用户认为,陡峭的学习曲线是他们没有投资加密货币的原因。”

  • 对参与条件没有限制或者说是低成本

很多项目的参与都有一个前置条件,需要持有某些特定的 NFT 或者他的代币等等。虽然这说明了这个项目的火热,提高了其 NFT 和代币的价值,但是也把更广大的玩家拒之门外,因为逐渐抬高的价格降低了用户的参与意愿。

  • 相关基础设施完善

一个赛道相关的基础设施是否完善决定了在操作上的简单与否,以及他带给用户的体验如何。如果操作过于复杂,会大大提高圈外用户的学习成本。

2.有持续的讨论

  • 赚钱效应

赚钱效应是最好的营销。无论是 GameFi 或是 SocialFi,在用户体验的角度都比不上 Web2 中的项目,用户使用的原因不过是有利可图的投机心理在作祟。市场上的热钱总是遵循着资金的熵增原理:资金总是从赚钱效率低的地方流向赚钱效率高的地方。

  • 文化属性

文化属性能够增加市场的讨论度和社区的凝聚力,这点体现在 Meme 和 NFT 类项目尤为明显。这类项目一般有着明显的社区文化和文化符号,比如 Milady 的反偶像文化(介绍来自 @codeboymadif)和狗狗币的柴犬符号等等。但是文化属性只能起到锦上添花的作用,因为参与者的还是投机为主,价格滑落之后也就没人继续为爱发电了。

3.百花齐放而不是一枝独秀

这个因素对于一些 Meme 赛道可能不太适用,因为该因素主要适用于一些注重实用性的领域,项目越多意味着竞争越激烈,也就会带来更多的业务创新和产品优惠程度上的竞争。这一点体现在 DeFi Summer 上尤其明显,各个协议都采取了代币激励、推出更高 APR 的 LP 池以及业务上的创新。

4.尤其体现出一个“新”字

币圈有个老话“玩新不玩旧”,新赛道具有更大的想象空间。新赛道往往因为其“新”,而没有一个完善的估值体系,也就是说没有一个可以预估的市值,从而有更大的上涨空间,这本质上是有了让普通人也能获取低价筹码的机会。老赛道由于有了合理的估计体系,VC 投资的“天亡级”项目一上线就有很高的估值,在二级市场很难有大的盈利机会。赛道发展的红利只有少部分人能吃到,这个赛道还能有人玩吗?

5.赛道概念具有想象力

元宇宙大概是这个因素最佳的例子。元宇宙是一个宏大的概念,作为真实世界的延伸与拓展,人们对元宇宙巨大的机遇和革命性的作用都非常期待,也就开启了“元宇宙”的热潮,元宇宙相关概念的代币比如 $Mana 和 $Sand 在上轮牛市中都有着不错的表现。

对号入座,火爆出圈的赛道都具备哪些要素?

6.项目方和社区的积极宣传

一个项目的能够有热度,离不开社区项目方和社区的宣传。比如近期的以太坊铭文 $ETHS 和 BRC-20 的 $rats 等,各自的社区都疯狂地为自家项目引流和造势。

二、我们该如何在狂欢中安全退出

加密用户画像一直没有发生过改变,大部分是投机赚钱的,短期内也不会改变。只要点燃了市场的 FOMO 情绪,加密用户就会积极拥抱泡沫。既然是泡沫和投机,这也就决定了没有死忠粉会死心塌地的一直持有他们的代币。

新牛市来临时,最耀眼的肯定是能带来最多收益的项目,其背后隐藏是杠杆和庞氏。一旦市场转向,涨得最快的是他们,跌得最快的也是他们,直接从“蓝筹”向“烂臭”转变。

在泡沫破碎之前又有哪些信号能指引我们安全退出?

  • 重复造轮子没有创新,资金和热度被分散

在一个项目爆火之后,一定会有其他项目的抄袭,一般都是对龙头的简单模仿和重复。这样只会分散市场的注意力和资金,而不会对该赛道的发展到积极作用。当仿盘逐渐增多,赚钱效应也被这些仿盘消耗殆尽,这时该赛道的衰退也是理所当然了。像在 DeFi Summer 中,Sushi 对 Uniswap 进行吸血鬼攻击之后,又有许多其他协议通过代币的高排放进行流动性窃取,对该赛道的发展起到作用,只是不同项目的零和博弈。

  • 龙头热度与价格降温,并没有稳定的上涨

赛道龙头所能起到的领涨作用是毋庸置疑的,如果赛道龙头的热度和价格都开始降温了,很容易引起市场情绪的崩溃,与之相关的仿盘也免不了“连坐”的结果。

三、比特币生态为何爆火,行情能否持续?

近期最热的肯定是比特币生态相关的话题,尤其是各类铭文,巨大的财富效应使许多人对此趋之若鹜。这轮行情离不开比特币的上涨对加密市场的情绪起到的提振作用,但是各类铭文代币为何能在众多赛道中独树一帜?我们将结合上述爆火的因素对其进行分析。

在参与门槛上,原理复杂和基础设施不完善限制了它的进一步传播,但是公平的一级参与机会成了它的一大卖点,散户铸就了这场与 VC 无关的小牛市;

在讨论度上,铭文代币毫无疑问具备巨大的赚钱效应。不论是早期的 $ordi、$sats,还是一些近期的 $atom 和 $pipe 等,都为持有者带来了巨大的回报。而且 BRC-20 代币还开启了一轮文化属性明显的“动物园”行情,一堆以动物名称命名的铭文十分流行,比如 $rats、$bear、$cats 等等,还有以往的 NFT 社区的铭文,比如黑猫的 $MMSS 和愤怒猫的 $UCAT 等;

在丰富度上,比特币生态还不够繁荣,虽然有很多具有创新性的协议,但是对于普通玩家来说还没有什么参与机会,还属于比较早期的阶段。而且现在站在各类铭文的角度,出现了重复造轮子的现象,不只存在于比特币链上,其他链也有了各自的铭文协议。由此市场注意力和资金被分散,其他链上的铭文很难再走出像比特币铭文的这种繁荣景象了;

在新颖程度上,铭文是一种新的资产形式,是熊市向牛市转变中提出的新概念,还没有经历过一个完整的牛市,所以属于符合“新”的标准;

在赛道想象力上,比特币是最具知名度的链,但其生态对比与以太坊可以说是少得可怜。以太坊本就是承接了比特币支持开发智能合约的任务,而现在比特币生态的发展受到了整个加密市场的关注,吸引到了资金和开发者的进入,其未来的发展空间无法想象。

在项目方和社区的宣传上,在这点上大家应该都有所体会,当某一推特博主聊起买哪些铭文时,一些社区发现后就会组织社区成员到评论区刷屏自家代币,比如 $rats 大军的刷屏、发现交易所数据砸盘后开启的提币运动等等。知名的 CX 币 Π 币,听说该社区也有了自己的代币 $piin,并且在抖音、快手等平台直播推荐和代买,吸引了许多的大爷大妈。

总结,比特币生态爆火原因主要有:参与门槛十分公平、赚钱效应和部分铭文的文化属性带来广泛的讨论、赛道新颖具有想象空间、各铭文社区进行了积极的传播等等。但是从短期看,多链的铭文部署导致了资金和热度的分散,比特币链上铭文降温。但是比特币生态并不只有铭文,还有着 RGB、Lightning Network、BitVM 等协议,这些协议还都处在发展的早期,还未显现其应有的光芒,所以我们有理由相信比特币生态会在这轮牛市中大放异彩。

参考资料:

  1. 《How to DeFi》

  2. 《加密货币现象:消费者态度及使用情况》


Author Jian Shuyi, there is only one reason why the heat caused the fire, that is, more people can know and participate in it, so the following influencing factors are all analyzed around this point. It should be noted that the reason why a track can explode does not necessarily include all the following factors. The low participation threshold includes these points. The principle is simple and easy to understand, which means that even outsiders who don't know the blockchain industry can accept it quickly, so it is more complicated to spread than the principle. The project is easier. When we search for the word "circle" in some blockchain media, most of the related tracks are understood and accepted by outsiders, such as chain tour. The complicated principle is to block the fence of outsiders, just as the research report on the phenomenon of cryptocurrency, consumers' attitude and use said, non-encrypted users think that the steep learning curve is the reason why they have not invested in cryptocurrency, and there are no restrictions on participation conditions or many items with low cost. There is a precondition for everyone to participate in the event, such as holding some specific or other tokens, etc. Although this shows that the popularity of this project has improved the value of its tokens, it has also shut out more players, because the rising price has reduced the user's willingness to participate, and whether the infrastructure related to a track is perfect or not determines the simplicity of operation and the experience it brings to users. If the operation is too complicated, it will greatly improve the learning of users outside the circle. There is a continuous discussion on the cost of learning. The money-making effect is the best marketing, which is not comparable to the Chinese project in terms of user experience. The reason why users use it is just profitable speculative psychology. The hot money in the market always follows the principle of entropy increase of funds, and funds always flow from places with low efficiency to places with high efficiency. Cultural attributes can increase the discussion degree of the market and the cohesion of the community, which is particularly obvious in similar projects. There are obvious community culture and cultural symbols, such as the anti-idol culture, the Shiba Inu symbol from dogecoin and so on, but the cultural attribute can only play a icing on the cake, because the participants are still speculative, and no one will continue to generate electricity for love after the price drops. This factor may not be applicable to some tracks, because it is mainly applicable to some practical fields. The more projects, the more intense the competition, the more businesses will be brought. This is reflected in the competition between service innovation and product preferential degree, which is particularly obvious in the world. All agreements have adopted token incentives to launch a higher pool and business innovation, especially in a new currency circle. There is an old saying that playing new but not playing old new tracks has more room for imagination. New tracks often do not have a perfect valuation system because of their newness, that is to say, there is no predictable market value, so there is more room for growth. This is essentially an opportunity for ordinary people to obtain low-priced chips. Due to the reasonable estimation system, the celestial death-class project invested in the old track has a high valuation as soon as it goes online. It is difficult to have a big profit opportunity in the secondary market. Can only a few people eat the track and can anyone play? The track concept is imaginative. Metauniverse is probably the best example of this factor. Metauniverse is a grand concept. As an extension and expansion of the real world, people are very much looking forward to the great opportunity and revolutionary role of Metauniverse, which has opened the Metauniverse. Tokens related to the concept of "hot meta-universe", for example, have performed well in the last bull market. What are the elements of the track that is hot and out of the circle? The active publicity of the project and the community can not be separated from the publicity of the community project and the community, such as the recent inscription of Ethereum and others. Their respective communities are frantically draining and creating momentum for their own projects. Second, how should we safely withdraw from the encrypted user portraits in the carnival? Most of them are speculative to make money. It won't change in the short term, as long as the mood of the market is ignited, encrypted users will actively embrace the bubble. Since it is a bubble and speculation, it also determines that no diehard fans will always hold their tokens. When a new bull market comes, the most dazzling project will definitely bring the most benefits. The hidden behind it is leverage and Ponzi. Once the market turns, the fastest one is that they fall directly from blue chips to rotten ones. What signals can guide us before the bubble bursts? Total withdrawal, repeated wheel-making, no innovative funds and heat are scattered in one project. After the explosion, there will be plagiarism of other projects, which is generally a simple imitation and repetition of the faucet. This will only distract the attention and funds of the market and will not play a positive role in the development of the track. When the imitation discs gradually increase and the money-making effect is exhausted by these imitation discs, it is natural that the decline of the track will be taken for granted. For example, after the vampire attack in China, many other agreements will be discharged through the high emission of tokens. The theft of liquidity has played a role in the development of the track, but the zero-sum game of different projects has not steadily increased the heat and price of the track leader. There is no doubt that the leading role of the track leader can be played. If the heat and price of the track leader start to cool down, it will easily lead to the collapse of market sentiment, and the imitation disk related to it will inevitably lead to the result of sitting together. Why does the bitcoin ecology explode? The hottest topic in the near future is definitely the bitcoin ecology, especially all kinds of inscriptions. The huge wealth effect makes many people flock to this market. This round of market can not be separated from the rise of Bitcoin, which has boosted the mood of the encryption market. But why are all kinds of inscription tokens unique in many tracks? We will analyze them in combination with the above-mentioned factors. The complicated principle and imperfect infrastructure on the participation threshold limit its further spread, but the fair first-level participation opportunity has become a big selling point, and retail investors have created this irrelevant small bull market. There is no doubt that the token has a huge money-making effect, whether it is early or some recent peace and so on, which has brought huge returns to the holders. Moreover, the token has also opened a round of zoo market with obvious cultural attributes. A bunch of inscriptions named after animals are very popular, such as and so on. There are also inscriptions in previous communities, such as black cats and angry cats. Although there are many innovative agreements, the bitcoin ecology is not prosperous enough, but it is still in an early stage for ordinary players, and now there is a phenomenon of repeated wheel-making from the perspective of various inscriptions 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台

文字格式和图片示例

注册有任何问题请添加 微信:MVIP619 拉你进入群

弹窗与图片大小一致 文章转载注明 网址:https://netpsp.com/?id=62374

美化布局示例

欧易(OKX)最新版本

【遇到注册下载问题请加文章最下面的客服微信】永久享受返佣20%手续费!

APP下载   全球官网 大陆官网

币安(Binance)最新版本

币安交易所app【遇到注册下载问题请加文章最下面的客服微信】永久享受返佣20%手续费!

APP下载   官网地址

火币HTX最新版本

火币老牌交易所【遇到注册下载问题请加文章最下面的客服微信】永久享受返佣20%手续费!

APP下载   官网地址
可以去百度分享获取分享代码输入这里。
声明

1.本站遵循行业规范,任何转载的稿件都会明确标注作者和来源;2.本站的原创文章,请转载时务必注明文章作者和来源,不尊重原创的行为我们将追究责任;3.作者投稿可能会经我们编辑修改或补充。

发表评论
平台列表
美化布局示例

欧易(OKX)

  全球官网 大陆官网

币安(Binance)

  官网

火币(HTX)

  官网

Gate.io

  官网

Bitget

  官网

deepcoin

  官网
关注我们

若遇到问题,加微信客服---清歌

搜索
排行榜
扫一扫,加我为微信好友加我为微信好友