以太坊链上数据、技术进展和2024年看点

币圈资讯 阅读:37 2024-04-22 11:23:12 评论:0
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 ETH/BTC 汇率  链上数据对比

 自 10 月以来,截止到 12 月 15 日,BTC 涨幅为 57.5 %,而 ETH 涨幅为 48.34 %。尽管差异并不是很大,但 ETH 价格表现不如 BTC 的情况已经接近一年。

 BTC 的强势表现主要来源于 BTC 现货 ETF 的预期、产量减半周期临近以及近期 BTC 生态的兴起。虽然 ETH 短期内并没有类似的利好预期,但链上数据还是呈现出比较积极的信号。

以太坊链上数据、技术进展和2024年看点

首先,从最直观的卖压来看,自 6 月以来,BTC 在交易平台的余额一直持续下降,但在 12 月 5 日至 12 月 12 日有明显的反弹迹象。在此峰值之后,BTC 价格一度从跌至 4.1 万美元。

以太坊链上数据、技术进展和2024年看点

 相比于 BTC,ETH 在交易平台的余额波动性较小。自 2023 年 2 月以来,ETH 在交易平台的余额一直处于下降趋势。在 12 月 11 日至 13 日期间,ETH 在交易平台的余额也出现了小幅反弹,但反弹出现在市场价格下跌期间和之后。这表明,有部分投资者在市场短暂下跌之后选择将 ETH 转入交易平台套现。

以太坊链上数据、技术进展和2024年看点

另外,根据 Santiment 网站的数据,在社交热度方面,二者的总体趋势相似,但 BTC 热度明显高于 ETH。在 MVRV(流动市值与已实现市值的比值,常用于评估买卖压力)方面,二者的整体趋势相似,但幅度差别较大。截止 12 月 15 日,BTC 为 41.17 %,而 ETH 为 26.45 %,二者的数值都处于 6 个月以来的高点。

以太坊链上数据、技术进展和2024年看点

尽管以太坊最近涨幅不如比特币,但以太坊市场在机构兴趣方面的趋势变化仍然值得注意,这一现象在 2023 年 11 月之后变得更加明显。

根据链上数据网站 Cryptoquant 的图表,前段时间,当以太坊价格稳定在 1800-1900 美元期间,机构持有的 ETH 出现了明显反弹。Cryptoquant 认为,近期机构持有 ETH 数量激增表明,机构投资者的兴趣增长,以及对以太坊的长期价值和市场增长潜力的认可。该现象背后的原因不仅是 ETH 的价格稳定性和 ETH 现货 ETF 的潜在预期,还包括以太坊基本面的稳固和技术升级。

JP Morgan 在最近发布的 2024 年金融前景报告中,对加密货币行业表明了立场。报告指出,尽管 BTC 临近减产周期,但预计 ETH 明年的表现将优于 BTC。JP Morgan 认为即将到来的 EIP-4844 升级(Proto-dank sharding)是其性能的潜在催化剂,该升级将提高以太坊的网络效率和可扩展性,从而在市场上赢得优势。

另一方面,BTC 的减产利好因素已经被提前兑现到当前价格之中。BTC 区块奖励减半预计将增加生产成本,并有可能导致其哈希率下降 20 %。根据 JP Morgan 的说法,这可能会导致矿工的运营成本更高,并使效率较低的矿工撤出市场。

以太坊 Dencun 升级前的关键步骤启动

 根据核心开发人员共识电话会议的报告, 2023 年底,以太坊开发人员终于启用了 Dencun 升级前的关键步骤。以太坊开发人员表示,将在未来一到两周内与所有客户端一起启动 Goerli 影子分叉,测试 Cancun/ Deneb 升级。

Devnet 12 上的 Cancun/ Deneb 升级测试正在进行中。目前,所有执行层(EL)和共识层(CL)客户端组合(包括 PRYSM 客户端)已被加载到 Devnet 12 。MEV-BOOST 软件已被激活用于大多数客户端组合(除了 PRYSM 客户端组合)。

以太坊 Dencun 升级将给以太坊的两个主网层(执行层和共识层)带来变化。对执行层的升级称为 Cancun 升级,而共识层的升级称为 Deneb 升级,因此合称为 Dencun 升级。

Dencun 升级将通过实施名为 EIP-4844 的改进提议,来为 ETH 和L2进一步扩容。Dencun 升级代表了以太坊的路线图中的重要里程碑,升级完成后,L2的手续费将更加具有竞争力。

通过封装 zkEVM 将L2功能返还L1

 由于L2网络可以将交易打包在一起进行链下处理,然后再将交易带回主链,因此它是一种可改善以太坊可扩展性的方法,也是 Vitalik Buterin 在 2020 会议上提出的重点(当时以太坊网络上的费用飙升)。

最近,以太坊联合创始人 Vitalik Buterin 认为,随着“轻客户端”变得更强大,通过封装 zkEVM 把L2的功能返还给L1将是以太坊的下一步行动。Vitalik Buterin 提出将L2网络或 rollup 的一些功能返还给以太坊主链,这种“封装 zkEVM”(零知识以太坊虚拟机)的方法与他几年前将计算负载从以太坊主链转移到L2网络的观点相反。

在最近的博客文章中,Vitalik Buterin 指出了轻客户端的重要性,即剥离客户端软件的轻节点。这些轻客户端仅根据需要要求数据,而不是通过保留其数据副本来独立验证对区块链数据的变化。通常,轻客户端或轻节点主要是处理区块头,只是偶尔下载实际区块内容。

Vitalik Buterin 认为,随着其功能和数据的增加,这些轻客户端将变得更加强大,甚至可以像L2网络一样完全验证L1交易。届时,以太坊网络将有效地具有内置的 ZK-EVM。

ZK 零知识证明是一种加密协议,它允许一方对另一方证明交易的正确性,且无需提供任何特定的交易详细信息。另一方面,EVM 是以太坊的虚拟机,像计算机用来执行程序一样,EVM 实际负责执行智能合约。

目前,L2网络(如 Polygon、Scroll、Matter Labs)都在使用零知识证明,这些平台是 DeFi 的主要利益相关者。因此,Vitalik Buterin 的封装 zkEVM 的方法可能会使这些平台失去一些动力。那么,如果 zkEVM 被封装并成为以太坊原始协议的一部分,L2的功能将会如何变化?

据 Vitalik Buterin 的说法,这些L2项目仍将负责许多重要职能。其中一些功能包括快速的预先确认,MEV 缓解策略以及对 EVM 的扩展。此外,封装 ZKEVM 的方法还将处理用户和面向开发人员的便利。他认为,“L2团队进行了许多工作,吸引了用户和项目进入其生态系统,并使其感到受欢迎;通过在网络中捕获 MEV 和交易拥堵费,L2们可以获得一定的利润补偿。这种关系将继续下去。”

2024 年 ETH 的主要看点

 Dencun 升级将在 2024 年 3 月或 4 月部署,通过 EIP-4844 ,以太坊L2的 gas 成本将大大降低,以太坊的可扩展性将得到改进。

以太坊链上数据、技术进展和2024年看点

以太坊L2活动正在持续增长,目前已经来到历史最高水平。根据 L 2B eat 近期的数据,整个生态系统的总价值为 160 亿美元。

目前的L2主要以 EVM 兼容型为主,例如 Arb, OP, Metis 等等。另外,Eclipse 和 Flyent 等非 EVM L2正在启动,将带来新型的应用程序和开发人员。加密游戏将主要基于L2生态系统,钱包用户体验将得到继续改善,使以太坊生态系统吸收更多的新用户。

最后,现实世界中的资产代币化一直在获得动力,将更多的“旧世界”金融产品带到以太坊区块链上。


The comparison of the data on the exchange rate chain has increased by, although the difference is not very big, the price performance is not as good as it has been for nearly a year. The strong performance mainly comes from the expected halving cycle of spot production and the recent rise of ecology. Although there is no similar favorable expectation in the short term, the data on the chain still shows a relatively positive signal. The progress of data technology and the annual point of view on the Ethereum chain first look at the balance on the trading platform since January from the most intuitive selling pressure. It has been declining continuously, but there are obvious signs of rebound from March to March. After this peak, the price once fell from 10,000 US dollars. Compared with the balance on the trading platform, the progress of data technology and the annual point of view are less volatile. The balance on the trading platform has been on a downward trend since June, and the balance on the trading platform also rebounded slightly during and after the market price fell, which indicates that some investors will choose to change after a short-term decline in the market. In addition, according to the data of the website, the overall trend of the two is similar in social popularity, but the popularity is obviously higher than that in the ratio of current market value to realized market value. It is often used to evaluate the trading pressure, but the overall trend is similar, but the magnitude is quite different. As of the end of the month, the values of the two are at the high point since last month. Although the recent increase of Ethereum is not as good as that of Bitcoin, the data technology progress and annual outlook of Ethereum are in Ethereum. The trend of institutional interest in the field is still noteworthy, and this phenomenon has become more obvious after October. According to the chart of the online data website, the institutional holdings rebounded obviously during the period when the price of Ethereum stabilized in the US dollar some time ago. It is believed that the recent surge in the number of institutional holdings indicates the interest growth of institutional investors and the recognition of the long-term value and market growth potential of Ethereum. The reasons behind this phenomenon are not only the price stability and the potential expectation of spot, but also the Ethereum base. In the recently released annual financial outlook report, the stability and technical upgrade of the company made clear its position on the cryptocurrency industry. The report pointed out that although the production reduction cycle is approaching, it is expected that the performance next year will be better than that the upcoming upgrade is a potential catalyst for its performance. This upgrade will improve the network efficiency and scalability of Ethereum, thus gaining an advantage in the market. On the other hand, the favorable factors of production reduction have been cashed in ahead of schedule to the current price, and the block reward will be halved, which is expected to increase production costs and is possible. According to the statement, this may lead to higher operating costs for miners and make inefficient miners withdraw from the market. According to the report of the core developer consensus conference call, at the end of the year, Ethereum developers finally started the key steps before the upgrade. Ethereum developers said that they would start the shadow bifurcation test with all clients in the next one to two weeks. The upgrade test on the upgrade is currently in progress at all execution layers and consensus layers. The client combination includes that the client has been loaded into the software and has been activated for most client combinations, except for the client combination. The upgrade of Ethereum will bring changes to the two main network layers of Ethereum, the executive layer and the consensus layer. The upgrade of the executive layer is called upgrade, while the upgrade of the consensus layer is called upgrade. Therefore, it is collectively called upgrade. The upgrade will further expand and represent an important milestone in the roadmap of Ethereum by implementing the improvement proposal named. After the upgrade, the handling fee will be more competitive. Force to return functions through encapsulation. Because the network can package transactions together for offline processing and then bring them back to the main chain, it is a method to improve the scalability of Ethereum, which was also the focus of the meeting. At that time, the expenses on the Ethereum network soared. Recently, the co-founders of Ethereum thought that with the light client becoming more powerful, the next step of returning functions through encapsulation would be to return some functions of the network to the main chain of Ethereum. The method of zero-knowledge Ethereum virtual machine is contrary to his view that the computing load was transferred from the main chain of Ethereum to the network a few years ago. In a recent blog post, the importance of light clients was pointed out, that is, the light nodes of client software were stripped off. These light clients only required data as needed, rather than independently verifying the changes to blockchain data by keeping copies of their data. Usually, light clients or light nodes mainly deal with the block header and only occasionally download the actual block content, thinking that with their functions and data, With the increase of the number of clients, these light clients will become more powerful and even be able to fully verify transactions like the network. At that time, the Ethernet network will effectively have a built-in zero-knowledge proof, which is an encryption protocol that allows one party to prove the correctness of transactions to the other party without providing any specific transaction details. On the other hand, the virtual machines of Ethernet are actually responsible for executing smart contracts like computers are used to execute programs. At present, the networks are all using zero-knowledge to prove that these platforms are the main interests. Therefore, the packaging method may make these platforms lose some power, so how will the functions change if they are packaged and become part of the original protocol of Ethereum? It is said that these projects will still be responsible for many important functions, some of which include rapid pre-confirmation of mitigation strategies and expansion of them. In addition, the packaging method will also handle the convenience of users and developers. He believes that the team has done a lot of work to attract users and projects into its ecosystem and make them feel better. By capturing and trading congestion charges in the network, we can get some profit compensation. This relationship will continue. Last year's major upgrade will be deployed in May or May, and the cost of passing through the Ethereum will be greatly reduced. The scalability of the Ethereum will be improved. The data technology progress on the Ethereum chain and the annual activities of the Ethereum are growing continuously, and it has reached the highest level in history. According to recent data, the total value of the whole ecosystem is US$ 100 million. At present, it is mainly compatible. For example, another and other non-start will bring new applications and developers encryption games, which will be mainly based on the ecosystem wallet, and the user experience will continue to be improved, so that the Ethereum ecosystem can absorb more new users. Finally, the token of assets in the real world has been gaining momentum, bringing more old-world financial products to the Ethereum blockchain. 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台

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