散户该如何把握未来两年的牛市

币圈资讯 阅读:38 2024-04-22 11:18:42 评论:0
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作者:Ningning,EMC Fund高级研究员 来源:X,@0xNing0x

按美林时钟的划分,我们(以老美经济体为判断标准)即将从滞胀进入衰退。在这一阶段,金融市场表现为在降息预期下,风险资产先行复苏,这是当前推动加密市场和纳斯达克指数上涨的核心因素之一。

回顾21世纪以来的美林时钟周期历史数据显示,在衰退确认到正式降息之间,金融市场容易发生黑天鹅危机。这一行业共识导致许多机构对自10月以来的小牛市行情采取观望态度。

尽管24年大概率会发生黑天鹅事件,清空许多合约账户,导致投资组合PnL出现大额亏损,但这并不影响为期两年的长周期牛市的到来和演绎。

因此,在23年的岁尾,我们有必要规划未来两年的牛市投资、理财和交易策略。

我效仿小黑哥Authur冥想,得出以下三点投资启示:

1.以Web3 Native的方式稳健扩张个人资产负债表

回顾上一轮牛市中迅速崛起的枭雄SBF、Dokwon、Suzhu,他们的一大法门是通过DeFi借贷平台扩大资产负债表。例如,将ETH在AAVE质押,然后将质押的ETH作为质押物,高比例(80%)提取ETH,再将这些ETH投入到具有潜在Alpha收益的新叙事资产。这样做的好处是既可以获得ETH的Beta收益,又可捕获新叙事资产的Alpha收益。缺点是对投资组合配置和资金管理有着极高的要求。

2.降低交易频次,保持耐心,长期持有投资组合

使用backtrader库对上一轮牛市中BTC、DOT、Doge的趋势策略、回归策略和长持策略进行全面回测显示,长持策略遥遥领先于其他两种策略。在这一轮牛市中,预计结果将相似。构建好投资组合后,应多看少动,学会在无人问津时买入,卖在人声鼎沸处。

3.坎昆升级将成为24年的超级叙事主线,现在是买入ETH的历史时机

与小黑哥得到的启示一致,坎昆升级将重新聚焦市场的关注点到以太坊及其生态项目上,ETH在坎昆升级的炒作中可能涨至$5000以上,年内有望突破$10000。


According to the division of Merrill Lynch clock, the source of the author's senior researcher is that we are about to enter recession from stagflation based on the old American economy. At this stage, the financial market is characterized by the first recovery of risky assets under the expectation of interest rate cuts, which is one of the core factors driving the rise of encryption market and Nasdaq index at present. Reviewing the historical data of Merrill Lynch clock cycle since the century, it is shown that the financial market is prone to black swan crisis between the confirmation of recession and the official interest rate cuts, which has led many institutions to pay attention to it since January. The coming bull market will take a wait-and-see attitude. Although there is a high probability that a black swan event will happen in 2008, emptying many contract accounts will lead to a large loss in the portfolio, this will not affect the arrival and interpretation of a two-year long-term bull market. Therefore, at the end of 2008, it is necessary for us to plan the bull market investment, financial management and trading strategy for the next two years. I follow the example of Little Black Brother's meditation and draw the following three investment inspirations: expanding my personal balance sheet steadily in a new way, and reviewing one of them who rose rapidly in the last round of bull market. The big method is to expand the balance sheet through the lending platform, for example, to pledge and then extract the pledged as collateral in a high proportion, and then invest these in new narrative assets with potential benefits. The advantage of this is that the benefits can be obtained and the benefits of new narrative assets can be captured. The disadvantage is that it has extremely high requirements for portfolio allocation and fund management, reducing the transaction frequency and maintaining patience for a long time. Use the library to carry out the trend strategy, regression strategy and long-term strategy in the last bull market. The comprehensive back test shows that the long-term holding strategy is far ahead of the other two strategies. In this bull market, it is expected that the results will be similar. After the portfolio is built, you should watch more and move less. Learn to buy and sell when no one cares. Cancun upgrade will become the super narrative main line of 2008. Now it is the historical opportunity to buy, which is consistent with the enlightenment that Little Black Brother got. Cancun upgrade will refocus the market on Ethereum and its ecological projects. It is expected to break through in the hype of Cancun upgrade in the past years. 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台

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