Bitget董事总经理:2024年值得期待的六大加密事件

币圈资讯 阅读:40 2024-04-22 11:17:56 评论:0
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作者:Gracy Chen,Bitget董事总经理 来源:crypto.news 翻译:善欧巴

经历了漫长的加密熊市,我们就像在冬天里一样,时刻要做好保暖的准备。不禁会想:什么时候才会到春天?

然而,我现在的感受已经发生了变化。这不仅仅是期待夏天或即将到来的牛市,而是感觉就像已经脱下了厚厚的棉袄,换上了轻便的 T 恤。我认为,有明确的迹象表明牛市已经悄然而至。

2023 年对加密行业来说是值得纪念的一年。加密市场总市值从 2023 年 1 月 1 日的 7940 亿美元激增近 93%,截至 12 月 5 日已达到 1.53 万亿美元。2023 年即将结束,是时候展望未来,将目光投向即将到来的 2024 年。在这篇文章中,我收集了 2024 年最值得期待的加密事件。

在 2024 年,我相信将会出现六个不同的市场催化剂,它们可能成为市场参与者的关键兴趣点,并可能创造新的投资机会。

现货比特币 ETF 在美国获得批准

2021 年 10 月,美国证券交易委员会 (SEC) 批准了美国首只基于 BTC 的交易所交易基金。美国金融监管机构尚未批准比特币现货 ETF,但我预计这种情况很快就会改变。

11 月 30 日,SEC 官员会见了著名加密资产管理公司 Grayscale 的代表,寻求将其现有的Grayscale 比特币信托转换为交易所交易基金。该公司在 8 月份赢得了与该机构的一场关键法庭诉讼,从法律上迫使后者审查其 BTC ETF 申请。

一天前,金融监管机构贝莱德和纳斯达克之间还举行了正式会议。该资产管理公司于 6 月向 SEC 申请了现货比特币 ETF,并于 11 月向美国证券交易委员会申请了现货以太坊 ETF。除了上述进展外,Bloomberg Intelligence ETF 分析师 James Seyffart 表示,他认为SEC 明年初批准比特币 ETF 的概率约为 90%。分析师认为批准将在 1 月 8 日至 10 日之间进行。

目前市场乐观,美国的比特币现货ETF将在机构寻求通过比特币投资实现多元化资产配置方面发挥重要作用。

以太坊坎昆升级

以太坊网络的重大升级通常是一年中最重要的事件之一。2024 年将会出现这种情况,届时坎昆升级预计将在 2024 年第一季度进行,引入期待已久的原始 danksharding。

Proto-danksharding是以太坊开发的 danksharding 技术迭代的原型。由于以太坊的可扩展性有限,交易在大量使用期间变得缓慢且昂贵。开发人员计划利用分片,将网络划分为称为分片的较小部分,这些部分可以独立执行智能合约和处理交易。

坎昆升级后,基于 Rollup 的第 2 层链(如 Arbitrum One、Optimism 和 Base)可以通过 Blob 将更便宜的数据添加到以太坊主网上的区块,这些数据可以发送并附加到以太坊无法访问的区块中虚拟机。通过 blob 和携带 blob 的交易,L2可以以经济高效的方式在以太坊主网上存储和检索链下数据,从而使L2交易在坎昆升级后显着便宜。

坎昆升级还将为以太坊用户提供其他好处,包括优化区块空间、降低数据存储成本、改进跨链通信以及通过减少 SELF-DESTRUCT 操作码来增强安全性功能。

美国加息结束

自2022年初以来,联邦基金利率持续上调,直至2023年第三季度,美联储试图对抗美国的通胀。2022年1月至2023年8月期间,有效率从0.08%提高 到目前的目标率5.25%和5.5%。

随着 美国通胀率从2022年6月的9.1%高点降至2023年10月的低至3.2%,我相信美联储的加息周期即将结束。市场预计 首次降息最早将于2024年5月发生。在此推动下,加密货币行业的积极情绪有望增强,从而增强比特币和其他数字资产的吸引力。 

为什么这对我们很重要?如果我们把各个金融市场看作一系列不同层次的池子,那么在最高层,我们会发现美国的货币和债券市场,可以与最大的池子相比较。

目前,利率较高,导致该池中存在大量“水”。然而,一旦利率降低,水就开始流向较小的资金池,例如股票和加密货币。当利率下降时,债券市场的吸引力就会降低,个人更倾向于将资金投资于提供更高风险和回报的资产,例如加密货币。

Circle IPO

根据 2023 年 11 月的一份报告,USD Coin ( USDC ) 稳定币的发行人 Circle 正准备于明年初通过首次公开募股 (IPO) 上市。由于这将使该公司成为发行人中第一家上市公司,因此此举预计将支持加密稳定币的采用。

然而,这并不是 Circle 第一次尝试上市。一年前,这家稳定币发行人终止了与特殊目的收购公司 (SPAC) Concord Acquisition Corp 的协议。据报道,终止的原因是由于 SEC 未批准该交易,该交易于 2021 年 7 月首次宣布。

比特币减半

就像以太坊的主要升级一样,比特币减半是2024 年加密行业最重要的发展之一。然而,与 ETH 硬分叉不同,这些事件大约每四年发生一次。

该事件将使矿工从每个新开采的区块中获得的新比特币数量减少 50%。通过将新硬币供应量减少一半,比特币将变得更加稀缺,通货膨胀率也会降低。

随着供需动态的增强,我预计比特币的价格会在活动结束后飙升。事实上,之前所有的减半都伴随着主要的加密货币牛市。

FTX案件即将解决

FTX 创始人Sam Bankman-Fried 去年 11 月被判犯有数十亿美元欺诈罪。作为解决程序的一部分,已获得清算近 8.8 亿美元资产以偿还债权人的批准。这些进展表明FTX正逐步进入交易所重组阶段。此事的解决预计将恢复投资者的一些信任和监管的清晰度,从而有可能吸引新的散户资金进入该行业。SEC 主席Gary Gensler 表示愿意在新的领导层取代SBF并且交易所在合法范围内运营的情况下考虑重启FTX。如果获得监管机构批准,此类重启可能有助于增加对 FTX 的信任,或者至少减轻丑闻的负面影响。

通往下一个加密货币牛市之路

随着美国批准BTC现货ETF、Decun升级以及其他重要催化剂,我们很可能在2024年见证比特币超级周期。然而,明年可能会出现潜在的负面因素。 

例如,现已解散的 Mt.Gox 交易所预计将向债权人偿还 137,000 BTC,美国政府计划清算在丝绸之路案件中扣押的比特币藏品。这些事件可能会带来抛售压力,并可能导致加密货币价格下跌。此外,加密货币的全球监管环境仍然不确定,这为不可预见的事件打开了大门。

另一方面,我认为,Mt.Gox 案件中的 BTC 清算和美国政府对丝绸之路的扣押可能标志着真正的牛市的出现。这可能伴随着加密货币的广泛采用和创新的引入。无论未来如何,“自己进行研究”(DYOR)并为可能成为加密货币历史上最乐观的市场做好准备非常重要。


The author, managing director and source translation Shan Ouba has experienced a long encryption bear market. We should always be prepared to keep warm just like in winter. We can't help wondering when it will arrive in spring. However, my feelings have changed now. This is not just looking forward to the summer or the upcoming bull market, but it feels like I have taken off my thick cotton-padded jacket and put on a light shirt. I think there are clear signs that the bull market has quietly arrived, which is a memorable year for the encryption industry. In this article, I collected the most anticipated encryption events in 2008, and I believe that there will be six different market catalysts in 2008, which may become the key points of interest for market participants and may create new investment opportunities. Spot bitcoin was approved in the United States in September, and the US Securities and Exchange Commission approved the first transaction based on in the United States. The U.S. financial regulator has not yet approved the spot bitcoin, but I expect this situation will change soon. On May, officials met with representatives of famous crypto asset management companies seeking to convert their existing bitcoin trust into exchange-traded funds. The company won a key court lawsuit with this institution in May, legally forcing the latter to review its application. A day ago, a formal meeting was held between financial regulators BlackRock and Nasdaq. The asset management company applied to the company in May. In addition to the above progress, the analyst said that he thinks the probability of approving bitcoin early next year is about the same as that of analysts who think that the approval will be carried out between March and March. At present, the market is optimistic. The spot bitcoin in the United States will play an important role in the organization's pursuit of diversified asset allocation through bitcoin investment. Upgrading the Ethereum in Cancun is usually one of the most important events in a year. When this happens, the Cancun upgrade is expected to be introduced in the first quarter of 2008. The long-awaited prototype was originally the technical iteration developed by Ethereum. Due to the limited scalability of Ethereum, transactions become slow and expensive during the period of heavy use. Developers plan to use fragmentation to divide the network into smaller parts called fragmentation. These parts can independently execute smart contracts and handle transactions. The layer chain based on Cancun upgrade, such as and, can be added to the main network of Ethereum by adding cheaper data. These data can be sent and attached to the blocks that cannot be accessed by Ethereum. The transactions passed and carried by virtual machines can store and retrieve offline data on the main network of Ethereum in an economical and efficient way, thus making the transactions significantly cheaper after the Cancun upgrade. Cancun upgrade will also provide other benefits for Ethereum users, including optimizing block space, reducing data storage costs, improving cross-chain communication and enhancing security functions by reducing opcodes. The rate continued to rise until the third quarter of 2008, when the Federal Reserve tried to fight inflation in the United States, the efficiency increased from January to June to the current target rate, and as the inflation rate in the United States dropped from the high point in June to the low point in June, I believe that the Fed's interest rate hike cycle is coming to an end, and the market is expected to cut interest rates for the first time as early as June. Driven by this, the positive sentiment of cryptocurrency industry is expected to increase, thus enhancing the attractiveness of Bitcoin and other digital assets. Why is this important to us if we put all the? The financial market is regarded as a series of pools at different levels. At the top, we will find that the currency and bond market in the United States can be compared with the largest pool. At present, the high interest rate leads to a large amount of water in the pool. However, once the interest rate is lowered, the water begins to flow to smaller pools of funds, such as stocks and cryptocurrencies. When the interest rate falls, the attractiveness of the bond market will decrease. Individuals are more inclined to invest their funds in assets that provide higher risks and returns, such as cryptocurrencies. The issuer of fixed currency is preparing to go public through initial public offering at the beginning of next year. As this will make the company the first listed company among the issuers, this move is expected to support the adoption of encrypted stable currency. However, this is not the first attempt to go public. A year ago, the issuer of stable currency terminated its agreement with the special purpose acquisition company. It is reported that the reason for the termination was that the transaction was not approved. Just like the major upgrade of Ethereum, the transaction was first announced to be halved in June. However, unlike hard bifurcation, these events occur about once every four years, which will reduce the amount of new bitcoin that miners get from each newly mined block. By reducing the supply of new coins by half, bitcoin will become scarcer, and the inflation rate will also decrease. With the enhancement of supply and demand dynamics, I expect the price of bitcoin to soar after the event. In fact, all the previous halving cases are accompanied by the solution of the major cryptocurrency bull market. People were convicted of billions of dollars of fraud last month, and as part of the settlement procedure, they have been approved to liquidate nearly hundreds of millions of dollars of assets to repay creditors. These developments show that they are gradually entering the stage of reorganization of the exchange. The settlement of this matter is expected to restore some trust of investors and the clarity of supervision, thus it is possible to attract new retail funds into the industry. The chairman expressed his willingness to consider restarting the exchange if it is replaced by the new leadership and the exchange is operating within the legal scope. Quasi-restart of this kind may help to increase trust in or at least mitigate the negative impact of the scandal, leading to the next cryptocurrency bull market. With the approval of spot upgrades and other important catalysts in the United States, we are likely to witness the bitcoin supercycle in 2008, but there may be potential negative factors next year, such as the now dissolved exchange, which is expected to repay creditors the bitcoin collection that the US government plans to liquidate in the Silk Road case. These events may bring selling pressure and may In addition, the global regulatory environment of cryptocurrency is still uncertain, which opens the door to unforeseen events. On the other hand, I think the liquidation of the case and the seizure of the Silk Road by the US government may mark the emergence of a real bull market, which may be accompanied by the wide adoption and innovation of cryptocurrency. It is very important to conduct research on it yourself and prepare for becoming the most optimistic market in the history of cryptocurrency. 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台

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