2024年Web3创新展望:形势紧迫、条件具备、关键在思路

币圈资讯 阅读:37 2024-04-22 11:10:50 评论:0
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作者:孟岩,Solv 联创 来源:X,@myanTokenGeek

现在的态势十分明显,如果正常发展,2024 年 crypto 市场将迎来牛市,资金和市场情绪将带动 crypto 资产价格大幅上升。虽然在过去十年间已经发生三次牛市,但这次所处的外部环境明显不同。简单的说,前几次牛市,crypto 赚钱,其他行业也赚钱,人家羡慕你,但并不嫉恨你。这次不一样,现在全球的政治经济形势逐渐走向复杂、紧张、对抗,很多人的日子不好过。在这种背景的衬托之下,如果一个被外界普遍视为以投机赌博为主的行业出现异常繁荣,将会显得格外刺眼。

而且现在愿意为 crypto 说话的人并不多。自从 2022 年 crypto 市场的暴烈崩溃之后,外界对于 crypto 行业的好奇和耐心已经基本耗尽。今天,除了这个行业内部的利益相关者之外,我们很难找到对 crypto 不抱偏见、持有正面观感的外部人士。如果 crypto 市场发生牛市行情,这种偏见和强烈的负面观感,很容易在刺激之下转变为嫉妒和憎恶,进而变成对于 crypto 行业的激烈干预甚至打击。在严重的情况下,市场可能会因为外部的干预而瞬间崩盘,一些人也会麻烦缠身。Crypto 行业的人对此要有一定的心理准备。

怎么办?

必须尽快在 Web3 领域里搞出一些有价值的、有公众影响力、有说服力的创新,这已经变得格外重要、格外迫切。

需要把 crypto 与 Web3 的关系厘清。我把 crypto 定义为加密数字资产的交易,把 Web3 定义为一场旨在构建可信数字经济的技术创新运动。理想情况下,crypto 和 Web3 相互关联,互为表里,Web3 是 crypto 的实体经济,crypto 是 Web3 的虚拟经济。但是实际情况是,多年来在这个组合当中虚强实弱、阴盛阳衰,投机炒作屡屡花样翻新,Web3 应用长期死水一潭。

导致这个问题的原因有三个。第一,很多人不相信 Web3 有前途。第二,Web3 成功所需的技术基础设施十分薄弱,第三,Web3 还没有确立指导思想和方法论。解决了这三个问题,Web3 的创新应用就会非常蓬勃地发展起来。

那么这三个问题在 2024 年能够得到解决吗?我认为很有机会。

先看第一个问题,也就是“Web3 是不是有前途”的问题。Web3 的叙事并不难理解,主要是基于密码学的一系列创新,在数字经济里构建一个自主权的、可信的契约环境。Web3 的技术基础是坚实的,可行性毋庸置疑,逻辑清楚,价值也是明确的,本身来说前途问题不应该是问题。但是由于过早的金融化,对于 Web3 的叙事出现了很多干扰。Vitalik 在他最近的文章里对于所谓 Degen gamblers 发了牢骚,也正是出于这个原因。

圈内里有一个尽人皆知、但很少有人公开挑明的秘密,就是在“这个行业”中“最成功”的人当中,有相当大的一部分根本不懂 Web3,也不信 Web3。他们骨子里从来就不相信区块链和去中心化技术除了投机交易之外还有任何其他用处。所以身为“这个行业”的成功人士,他们经常为了显示自己的“通透”和“坦诚”,半公开地在各种场合宣扬区块链不适用于实体经济, 嘲笑 Web3 空中楼阁,不可能实现。这种情况大面积出现在亚洲的 crypto 圈子里,严重干扰了人们对于 Web3 的认识。

之所以出现这种荒谬情况,是因为外界普遍将 crypto 和 Web3 行业混为一谈。事实上,在 crypto 交易市场中的成功人士里,有很多不太懂技术,特别是对密码学的了解十分浅薄,只是把 crypto 资产当成另一种投机标的来交易,通过投机交易或者市场操纵,他们在市场上暂时取得了不错的收益,他们不理解、不在乎也不屑于学习 Web3 的底层逻辑,看不到密码学技术对现实经济和生活可能带来的影响。如果将 Web3 与 crypto 混为一谈,又简单的以赚钱为标准,可能会将这些暂时的交易赢家视为 Web3 行业里的成功人士,以为他们具备高认知,把他们的话当真理。

但这是一个严重的误解,因为 Web3 跟 crypto 并不是一回事。一个在 crypto 市场里成功的交易者,可能是 crypto 投机专家,可能是精准把握乌合之众投机心理的高手,可能是市场的操纵者,可能是内幕交易者,可能是套利者,也可能单纯只是幸运儿,但所有这些可能都跟他对于 Web3 的认知水平毫无关系。一个这样的成功者,完全可能连基本的 Web3 技术概念都不清楚,完全可能发自内心地认为密码学就是天书、区块链不堪大用、Web3 纯属噱头。在现实世界里,如果一个华尔街的交易员给 AI 大模型的创新指明方向,或者断言某种抗癌药物的分子式存在结构性错误,大多数人都会认为这哥们得了妄想症,绝不会有人因为他在 AI 和生物医药股票上赚了钱,就认为他比 OpenAI 或者约翰霍普金斯大学的教授更有发言权。但是在 Web3 行业里,一个crypto 交易高手(或者更大概率只是市场操纵高手或者内幕交易高手,俗称镰刀)对 ZK、L2 或者先进的通证化技术大放厥词,却能引来众人的喝彩。这种情况的荒谬性应该被充分认识。

必须将 Web3 的话语权还给真正在做 Web3 创新、在干 Web3 的人,把 Web3 的叙事讲清楚,把 Web3 的前途、逻辑和可行性很好地展现出来,关于“Web3 是否有前途”的问题将迎刃而解。

第二个问题,也就是 Web3 的技术基础设施薄弱的问题,在过去十年当中是一个非常严重的问题。其实人们对于 Web3 的期待远远的跑在了基础设施发展之前,以至于很多应用,想法不能说不好,但做不出来,或者做出来之后效果很差。这也是导致一部分歪嘴和尚断言 Web3 没戏的重要原因之一:因为不懂技术,就只能从表面现象来做判断。

但是 Web3 基础设施在过去几年里已经有了长足的进步。这里所说的基础设施,并不单指区块链, 也包括 ZK、账户、DeFi、钱包、开发工具、开发者教育等各个协议层和辅助性的组件。特别需要指出的是,稳定币也是一个基础设施,而且可能是最核心的基础设施之一。稳定币、合规稳定币和 CBDC 的发展实际上是今天的 Web3 可以谈应用创新的重要条件。

现在 Web3 的基础设施发展到什么程度了呢?简而言之就是初具气象。在性能方面已经达到了可以有所作为的程度,在成本方面,配合一些通证经济的补贴和激励,也具备了大规模推广的条件。所以宏观上来说无论是性能还是成本,已经足以支撑一些大规模的、高并发量应用场景的基础链。

目前的主要问题是门派林立,碎片化问题开始显现,各有各的长处,各有各的槽点,尚未出现各方面都比较均衡的选项。以太坊安全性好,资产规模大,开发者数量多,但是性能太差。各种 EVM 主链和 L2 性能优异,但资产规模有限。Solana 性能好,工具齐备,但开发者数量太少。总之,全面竞争开始,但又尚未出经济技术特征全面达标的选手。不过总体来说,Web3 技术基础设施的发展已经初步到位,为创新者提供了丰富的组合选项。2024 年的 Web3 创新者,不应该再拿技术基础设施薄弱当作借口了。

第三个问题,也就是指导思想和方法论的问题,才是目前最为迫切的问题。毫不夸张地说,在思想上,整个 Web3 行业还在黑暗之中摸索,不知道往哪里走能够率先破局。

2004 年谷歌确立广告业务模式之前,互联网产业就处于这个状态。很多人理解了互联网技术上的要点和能力,从理论出发也猜测了一些方向,做出来一些应用,但是都还没有跑通,除了简单进行内容传递或分发的电子邮件和互联网媒体以及黄赌毒之外,不知道能用互联网来干什么,更不知道怎么赚钱。

今天的 Web3 也是这样,理论上的想法很多,但除了数字资产的转账汇款和投机炒作之外,没一个跑通的,更不知道除了以各种方式发售资产之外还有什么盈利模式。整个行业确实期待方法论上的重大突破。

我对此持乐观态度。在过去几年,尤其是刚刚过去的 2023 年,Web3 行业在思想前沿上取得了一些重要的进步。

首先就是对 Web3 核心价值主张的认识和描述,比以前更加精准。越来越多的人开始将“自主权”和“可信任”作为 Web3 的根本价值主张,调整了之前把“去中心化”奉为圭臬的态度。事实上,“去中心化”只是实现自主权和可信任的手段之一,而且在很多情形下不是最合理的手段。我认为在 2024 年,通过深入的理论探讨和一些成功的案例实践,Web3 行业当中最前沿的创新者将能够摆脱“唯去中心化”的原教旨主义迷思,更加专注于自主权身份、自主权账户、自主权资产、自主权数据和交叉验证、可信计算这些更本质的要素上,而这将导致 Web3 技术栈发生重大变化,从单纯依靠区块链走向全面应用 ZK、VC、DID 等最新密码学技术成果。

其次就是开始正视现实,对用户在实际应用中提出的隐私保护、尊重权威的需求予以响应。在此前,整个 Web3 摆脱不了区块链“密码朋克”意识形态起源的束缚,片面地强调极端透明化,片面地提倡“一人一票、少数服从多数”的简单的共识机制,既不合理,也与现实世界格格不入。随着 ZK 技术的发展以及 VC、DID 技术的应用,新的 Web3 应用可以有效地、精准地保护隐私,避免“信息大锅饭”,可以支持真实世界授权机构在事实认定方面的权威,从而可以将先进的 Web3 技术切实用于对接真实世界需求。

其三是通证应用的扩大化。在几年以前,区块链行业普遍是把通证当成“代币”,在生态内部代表价值性权益。但随着 Web3 在各个领域经验的逐渐积累,人们逐渐开始认识到,区块链唯一最擅长的事情,就是管理通证,因此,区块链应用范围的扩张,很大程度上表现为通证化范围的扩张。而通证本身,绝不仅仅是“代币”,通证可以是代币性的价值载体,可以是权益证明,可以是数字物品本身的一种新的表达形态,也可以是智能合约的构件。可以说,通证扩张到哪里,区块链就能够应用到哪里,凡是值得放到区块链上解决的问题,几乎全部都应该考虑通证化来解决,而不适合通证化的东西,极大概率也不需要放到区块链上。当整个 Web3 行业将链上的创新逐渐收敛到通证上以后,就有可能更快地形成完整的方法体系。

其四是对监管的态度发生根本变化。今非昔比,今天更多地区的监管和执法机构对于判定哪些行为属于创新、哪些行为属于欺诈或违法,具有更强烈的自信,顾虑更少,决策更武断,行动更迅猛。Web3 融合监管科技(RegTech),对接甚至主动支持合理的监管机制,既是形势所迫,也是大势所趋。我观察到,越来越多的 Web3 应用主动支持监管,这一点十分必要,也十分及时。

这并不是说 Web3 的所有方法论问题都得到了解决,事实上还是有很多问题悬而未决,比如如何在自由与合规、隐私与透明之间达成平衡,如何盈利,如何在与 Web2 的竞争中体现出让对手鞭长莫及、无可奈何的优势。但是,我认为,至少在一部分 Web3 创新者当中,长期的教条正在溶解,新的思想开始沿着正确的方向涌现。

基于以上几个判断,我相信在未来的一两年时间里,Web3 行业将 出现价值创造逻辑确切,且具有大规模实体经济应用潜力的创新。而那些真正的 Web3 创新项目将开始成规模获得可持续的长期主义投资,从而使得在 Web3 行业内进行长周期持续性、可积累的建构,开始显现出比短期投机行为更高的回报率。


Author Meng Yan co-founded the source. The current situation is very obvious. If the market will usher in a bull market in the normal development year, capital and market sentiment will drive asset prices to rise sharply. Although there have been three bull markets in the past decade, the external environment is obviously different this time. Simply put, the previous bull markets made money, and other industries also made money. People envy you, but they don't envy you this time. Now the global political and economic situation is gradually becoming complex and tense, and many people are having a hard time against this background. In contrast, if an industry that is generally regarded as speculative gambling is unusually prosperous, it will be particularly dazzling, and there are not many people who are willing to speak for it now. Since the violent collapse of the market in, the curiosity and patience of the outside world for the industry have been basically exhausted. Today, it is difficult for us to find outsiders who have a positive impression without prejudice except the stakeholders within the industry. If there is a bull market, this prejudice and strong negative impression will easily be stimulated. It turns into jealousy and hatred, and then it becomes a fierce intervention or even a blow to the industry. In serious cases, the market may collapse instantly because of external intervention, and some people will also be troubled. People in the troubled industry should be psychologically prepared for this. What should we do? It has become particularly important and urgent to clarify the relationship with. I define it as a transaction aimed at building encrypted digital assets. The technological innovation movement of credible digital economy is ideally interrelated with each other. The real economy is a virtual economy, but the actual situation is that in this combination for many years, speculation and speculation have been repeatedly refurbished and applied for a long time. There are three reasons for this problem. First, many people do not believe in the future. Second, the technical infrastructure needed for success is very weak. Third, the guiding ideology and methodology have not been established to solve these three problems. Will it develop very vigorously, so can these three problems be solved in 2008? I think it is very opportunity to look at the narrative of the first question, that is, whether it is a promising question. It is not difficult to understand that the technical foundation of building an autonomous and credible contract environment in the digital economy is solid and feasible, and the logic is clear and the value is clear. In itself, the future problem should not be a problem, but because of the premature financialization, it is not a problem for the narrative. There has been a lot of interference. In his recent article, he complained about the so-called "speculative trading". It is precisely for this reason that there is a well-known secret in the circle that few people openly point out, that is, a considerable number of the most successful people in this industry simply don't understand or believe that they never believe that blockchain and decentralized technology have any other uses besides speculative trading. Therefore, as successful people in this industry, they often want to show their transparency and frankness. Publicly preaching that blockchain is not applicable to the real economy and mocking castles in the air is impossible. This situation has appeared in Asian circles on a large scale, which has seriously interfered with people's understanding of it. The reason for this absurd situation is that the outside world generally confuses with the industry. In fact, many successful people in the trading market do not know much about technology, especially cryptography, and only trade assets as another speculative target through speculative trading or market manipulation. Even though they have made good profits temporarily in the market, they don't understand, care about or disdain the underlying logic of learning, and they can't see the possible impact of cryptography technology on the real economy and life. If they confuse it with making money simply, they may regard these temporary trading winners as successful people in the industry, thinking that they have high awareness and take their words as truth, but this is a serious misunderstanding because it is not the same thing. A successful trader in the market may be. Speculators may be experts in accurately grasping the rabble's speculative psychology, market manipulators, insider traders, arbitrageurs or just lucky people, but all these may have nothing to do with his cognitive level. A successful person may not even know the basic technical concepts, and may think from the heart that cryptography is a gobbledygook blockchain, which is purely a gimmick. In the real world, if a Wall Street trader gives a big model, Innovation points the way or asserts that there is a structural error in the molecular formula of an anticancer drug. Most people will think that this guy is paranoid. No one will think that he has more say than a professor at Johns Hopkins University because he made money in biomedical stocks. But in the industry, a master trader or, more likely, a master market manipulator or insider trader, commonly known as sickle pair or advanced certification technology, can attract people's applause. The absurdity of the situation should be fully understood, and the right to speak must be returned to those who are really doing innovation. The narrative clearly shows the logic and feasibility of the future, and the question of whether there is a future will be solved. The second question, that is, the problem of weak technical infrastructure, has been a very serious problem in the past decade. In fact, people's expectations for it have run far ahead of the development of infrastructure, so that many application ideas can't be said well but can't be done or The effect is very poor after it is made, which is one of the important reasons why some crooked monks assert that there is no chance, because they can only judge from the superficial phenomenon because they don't know the technology, but the infrastructure has made great progress in the past few years. The infrastructure mentioned here not only refers to the blockchain, but also includes various protocol layers and auxiliary components such as account wallet development tools, developer education, etc. It is particularly important to point out that the stable currency is also an infrastructure and may be one of the core infrastructures. In fact, the development of fixed currency, compliance and stability is an important condition for application innovation today. To what extent has the infrastructure developed now? In short, it has begun to take shape. In terms of performance, it has reached the point where it can make a difference. In terms of cost, it also has the conditions for large-scale promotion. Therefore, both performance and cost are enough to support the basic chain of some large-scale and high-concurrency application scenarios. At present, the main problem is that the fragmentation of sects has begun to appear, and each has its own advantages and slots have not yet appeared. 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台

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