Matrixport：SEC为何会再次拒绝比特币现货ETF？
作者：Markus Thielen，Matrixport研究主管 来源：matrixport 翻译：善欧巴，比特币买卖交易网
Matrix on Target在2023年对市场普遍预期持乐观态度，并在年初预测比特币可能在圣诞节前达到45,000美元。我们甚至预期，如果比特币现货ETF的所有SEC要求得到满足，比特币可能在2024年1月底前升至50,000美元。尽管我们看到ETF申请人与SEC工作人员之间频繁的会议，导致申请人重新提交他们的申请，但我们认为所有申请都未满足SEC在批准之前必须满足的关键要求。这可能会在2024年第二季度实现，但我们预计SEC将在1月拒绝所有提案。
当前由民主党人主导的SEC五人投票委员领导层不太可能批准一项将比特币合法化为替代储备价值的ETF。这是因为ETF肯定会使加密货币市场整体起飞，并且根据Gensler在2023年12月的评论，他认为行业需要更严格的合规性。从政治角度来看，没有理由批准比特币现货ETF，因为这将使比特币成为替代存储价值的合法选择。
自从交易者在2023年9月开始押注ETF获批以来，至少有140亿美元额外的法币和杠杆已流入加密货币。其中一些流入可能与联储转向鸽派的宏观条件放松有关。然而，在这140亿美元的额外多头中，有100亿美元可能与ETF批准的预期相关。 如果SEC否决，我们可能会看到级联清算，因为我们预计至少51亿美元的额外永续多头比特币期货将被清算。比特币价格可能会迅速下跌20%，回落到36,000美元/38,000美元的范围。
如果市场参与者在2024年1月5日星期五之前没有听到任何批准的消息。在这种情况下，Matrix on Target建议交易员通过购买1月末的40,000美元行权价看跌期权来对冲他们的多头头寸，甚至通过期权直接做空比特币。即使SEC拒绝ETF，我们仍然预计比特币价格在2024年底将比今年年初（42,000美元）高，因为美国大选年和比特币挖矿年往往是积极的。
The author's research director source translation Shanouba Bitcoin Trading Network was optimistic about the market expectation in 2008 and predicted at the beginning of the year that bitcoin might reach US dollars before Christmas. We even expected that if all the requirements of bitcoin spot were met, bitcoin might rise to US dollars before the end of the year. Although we saw that frequent meetings between applicants and staff led applicants to resubmit their applications, we thought that all applications failed to meet the key points that must be met before approval. It is required that this may be realized in the second quarter of 2008, but we expect to reject all proposals in May. At present, the leadership of the five-member voting committee led by Democrats is unlikely to approve a proposal to legalize Bitcoin as an alternative storage value, because it will definitely make the cryptocurrency market take off as a whole, and according to comments made in May, he believes that the industry needs stricter compliance. From a political point of view, there is no reason to approve Bitcoin spot because it will make Bitcoin a legal choice for alternative storage value. Since traders started betting in June, at least $100 million of extra legal tender and leverage have flowed into cryptocurrency, some of which may be related to the relaxation of macro conditions of the Fed's shift to doves. However, $100 million of this extra long position may be related to the expected approval. If it is rejected, we may see cascade liquidation, because we expect that at least $100 million of extra perpetual long bitcoin futures will be liquidated, and the price of bitcoin may rapidly fall back to the norm of $100 million. If market participants don't hear any news of approval before Friday, March, in this case, traders are advised to hedge their long positions by buying the put option at the end of the month, or even short bitcoin directly through the option. Even if we refuse, we still expect that the price of bitcoin will be higher than the dollar at the beginning of this year at the end of the year, because the US election year and bitcoin mining year are often positive. 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台
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