2024 年比特币 ETF 的三种可能情况

币圈资讯 阅读:36 2024-04-22 11:02:43 评论:0
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作者:Mat Di Salvo;编译:白话区块链

在被美国证券交易委员会(SEC)拒绝了长达10年后,比特币交易平台交易基金(ETF)最终有望开始在美国进行交易,甚至可能会在下周启动。

一系列备受关注的申请人一直在对他们的S-1文件进行微调,彭博社的分析师表示,截止到1月10日,推出的可能性已经达到了90%。

如果发生这种情况,意味着传统零售投资者最终将有一种方式可以接触比特币,而不必直接购买和存储这种数字资产。换句话说,他们可以投资比特币而不必纠结于加密货币交易平台、数字钱包和种子短语。

对于比特币ETF对加密市场的影响,不同人有不同看法,有人认为会有华尔街资金的巨大涌入,也有人认为不会有特别引人注目的效果。

那么可以期待什么呢?以下是三种可能的情景。

1、如果比特币ETF没有获批准,会发生什么呢?

SEC在技术上仍然可以拒绝这个产品——但专家告诉Decrypt这种可能性很小。SEC在过去十年里一直拒绝这种产品,称由于比特币在很大程度上是全球化和去中心化的,因此更容易受到市场操纵的影响。

现在情况已经发生了变化,自去年以来,更多知名金融机构——如BlackRock和Fidelity——已向SEC提出了申请。

申请已经走过了很长一段路,有意成为发行人的人已经修改了他们的S-1表格以满足SEC的要求。

数据分析公司VettaFi的Dave Nadig,也是《交易平台交易基金全面指南》的共同作者,表示监管机构要求潜在发行人提供更多细节,以便再次拒绝这一产品。

他告诉Decrypt:“如果SEC实际上打算在一周内搞个‘抽风’,很难想象他们会如此费力地让工作人员逐行审查这些S-1表格中的所有细枝末节。”

尽管如此,如果由于任何原因ETF未获批准,市场可能不会轻易接受这一消息。今天在数字资产管理公司Matrixport发布看跌报告后,我们就预见到了这一情况,该报告大胆预测SEC将拒绝所有待定申请。该报告震动了市场,导致比特币在几分钟内暴跌超过7%。

2、一个比特币ETF发行者可能会成为焦点

目前,SEC名单上列出了14家备受关注的公司正在争取获得批准,其中包括BlackRock、WisdomTree和VanEck等知名机构。如果SEC批准它们全部,资金将会流向何处呢?

彭博智库的分析师Eric Balchunas等人表示,如果一天内推出大量ETF,兴趣也可能会分散。

同时,Grayscale有可能同时获得绿灯。加密资产管理公司Grayscale希望将其广受欢迎的比特币信托基金(GBTC)转变为现货ETF。如果这一计划实现,它可能会成为焦点。

“资金流向的具体情况有点像秘密酱料,是一场神秘的联合追求,” Nadig说道,并补充说:“如果GBTC在最初的推出中被纳入,可能会吸引所有的交易量,因为已经有很多人持有它,可能希望卖出。”

目前,只有合格投资者可以直接将现金投入GBTC(尽管可以通过正式的美国经纪机构或养老账户在二级市场购买GBTC股票)。但如果该基金转变为ETF,所有有美国市场准入权限的投资者都可以实时买卖ETF的股份。

3、市场最终表现不一定很好

正如Decrypt之前报道的,专家普遍认为,长期来看,一个现货比特币ETF可能表现不错。

不清楚的是,批准是否会立即引发资金的大量涌入:专家表示,由于同时推出了如此多的ETF,投资可能分散到几个产品上,导致首日资金流动较为平静。

彭博智库的ETF研究分析师James Seyffart告诉Decrypt:“短期内可能会失败,并在最初的一两天流动中让人失望。”

不要指望价格会立即爆炸。自从去年ETF热潮开始以来,市值最大的加密货币价格一路上涨,成为2023年表现最佳的资产之一。这就意味着可能已经有人提前预料到了这样的涨幅。

不过,如果这些ETF获得批准,资金可能会在整个2024年不断流入这些产品。“人们对这些产品有需求,”Seyffart补充说。“之所以有这么多发行人争相参与,是有原因的。”


The author compiled the vernacular blockchain. After being rejected by the US Securities and Exchange Commission for a long time, the bitcoin trading platform trading fund is expected to finally start trading in the United States, and may even launch a series of closely watched documents next week. Bloomberg analysts said that the possibility of launching it as of March has reached. If this happens, it means that traditional retail investors will finally have a way to get in touch with Bitcoin without having to buy it directly. In other words, they can invest in Bitcoin without obsessing about the cryptocurrency trading platform. Different people have different views on the impact of Bitcoin on the cryptomarket. Some people think that there will be a huge influx of Wall Street funds, while others think that it will not have a particularly eye-catching effect. So what can be expected? The following are three possible scenarios. What will happen if Bitcoin is not approved? Technically, this product can still be rejected, but experts tell. It is very unlikely that this product has been rejected in the past ten years, saying that because Bitcoin is largely global and decentralized, it is more susceptible to market manipulation. Now, the situation has changed. Since last year, more well-known financial institutions, such as Hehe, have applied to it, and it has gone a long way. People who are interested in becoming issuers have revised their forms to meet the requirements. Data analysis companies are also trading platforms and comprehensive guidelines for trading funds. With the author, he said that the regulator asked the potential issuer to provide more details in order to reject the product again. He told him that it was hard to imagine that they would make the staff examine all the details in these forms line by line if they actually planned to have a convulsion within a week. Nevertheless, if they were not approved for any reason, the market might not accept the news easily. Today, we foresaw this situation after the digital asset management company released a bearish report, which boldly predicted that it would be rejected. The report has shaken the market, causing bitcoin to plummet in a few minutes, and more than one bitcoin issuer may become the focus. At present, there are two companies on the list that are attracting attention, including well-known institutions such as Hehe. If they are approved, where will all the funds flow? Analysts from Bloomberg think tank and others said that if a large number of interests are launched in one day, it may also be dispersed and the green light may be given at the same time. Encrypted asset management companies hope to make it popular. If this plan is realized, it may become the focus. The specific situation of capital flow is a bit like a secret sauce, which is a mysterious joint pursuit, he said, adding that if it is included in the initial launch, it may attract all the trading volume because many people already hold it and may want to sell it. At present, only qualified investors can directly invest cash, although they can buy stocks in the secondary market through formal American brokerage agencies or pension accounts. The fund's transformation into a stock market where all investors with access to the US market can buy and sell in real time may not perform well in the end. As previously reported, experts generally believe that a spot bitcoin may perform well in the long run. It is not clear whether the approval will immediately trigger a large influx of funds. Experts say that the first day of capital flow is relatively calm because so many investments are launched at the same time and may be spread over several products. Research analysts at Bloomberg think tank told that it may be lost in the short term. Failing and disappointing in the first day or two, don't expect the price to explode immediately. Since the beginning of last year's craze, the price of cryptocurrency with the largest market value has been rising all the way to become one of the best performing assets in 2008, which means that some people may have expected such an increase in advance, but if these approved funds are likely to flow into these products continuously throughout the year, people will have demand for these products, adding that there is a reason why so many issuers are competing to participate. 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台

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