观点：什么情况下暴涨的币暴跌后不能买？
作者：川沐 来源：X，@xiaomucrypto
这里说的是利好驱动的暴涨非庄家驱动。
对于我们散户想极力提高每一次的胜率，需要努力克服暴涨后的贪婪和暴跌低谷中的恐惧。在底部持仓一步到位，暴涨后达到预期附近应该逐步减仓，直到真正到了心预期价或者远超预期价清仓。
如果预期消失，那么即使它再次跌回原本买入位置或者更低的价格水平也不要参与。
拿auction和bake举例，俩个都是ido打新爆拉起来的。他们的估值和增长驱动来自于ido打新的收益。一旦一次或者连续打新收益出现亏损或者骤降的时候，那么基本上就是离场的时候。auction更为明显，前面几次打新mubi，bssb，收益远远覆盖了币价波动可能的亏损，那么有理由就相信下一次打新继续的暴利预期，所以auction价格被推高到了45左右。
bake的暴涨顺应了三点，brc20打新预期，auction同类走势对照，币安背景。所以在初始的0.23就开始一路不停歇的爆拉到0.9附近，几天时间快速走完了autcion俩月的路程。
当暴涨的代币市值被放大后，比如从5千万美金膨胀到5个亿美金后。对打新类的币很难继续维持上涨。5千万美金市值的时候，它ido的币只要不是很差，30%市值参与，打新市值1000万可能回报率就直接在50%以上，币价几乎不可能跌50%到2500w，所以接近稳赢。但是市值到了5个亿，30%市值参与，如果打新市值还是1000万，收益不足10%，如果再算上套保资金费率可能还亏钱，如果币价在5亿美金剧烈波动下跌，那么基本上铁定亏钱。我就是这个错误所以打新bake亏了十几万u当时没想明白。打新结束0.6多点清仓走了。
现在回头看之后的走势就很确定了，auc和bake都是持续暴跌，因为打新参与者已经知道现在打新是亏钱的，那么上涨的预期就彻底消失了。
既然暴涨的预期是brc20打新，那么预期小时了，再暴跌回来，抄底的理由就不能再是便宜，所以构不成买入理由。
因利好产生的暴涨，时效性也特别强。仅有俩种姿势买入能赚钱。第一是信息第一时间获取，短期资金入场，同时快速离场。第二是利好日期没到来的较远时间产生的暴跌，因为预期利好依然有效存在。
一旦兑现利好或者利好所对应的预期消失，那么就不能再继续参与了。我们需要去追寻下一个更加具有性价比的东西。市场的代币千千万，每月暴涨的币不只有一个，如果你想买入一个处于爆拉数倍价格高位，要么控制极低比例的仓位参与，要么保持冷静继续等待下一个机会。
不要对任何错过的机会惋惜也别一直对已经实现了预期的币留恋。机会太多了，ygg，gas，trb，bake这些涨很多倍的我都参与了一圈，但是都不遗憾，最高价的那个财富不是属于我的。
一定要耐心等待，减少出手次数，市场机会太多太多了，人的精力是有限的，每个月搞定俩三个机会，一年下来收益率都会很爆炸，不是很好的机会要么极小额参与要么不参与，忍，等。
亏损往往是不理性产生的，暴涨产生一定要减仓而不是加仓，降低成本线，然后在预期消失的时候彻底离场。
就水这么多，今年想赚钱应该需要极大的耐心，时刻控制好自己的贪欲和恐惧，我也还做到不，今年努力。
最后祝你们都有一个好的回报，并且能安稳揣兜里。
以上内容没有任何投资价值不构成任何投资建议。
The author Chuanmu source here refers to the positive-driven inflation and non-banker-driven. For our retail investors, if they want to improve the winning rate every time, they need to work hard to overcome the greed after the inflation and the fear in the trough. After the inflation at the bottom, they should gradually reduce their positions until they really reach the expected price or far exceed the expected price. If the expectation disappears, even if it falls back to the original buying position or lower price level again, don't participate in taking and giving examples. Together, their valuation and growth are driven by the new profits. Once the new profits are lost or plummeted once or continuously, it is basically more obvious when they leave the market. The previous new profits have far covered the possible losses caused by the fluctuation of the currency price, so there is reason to believe in the profiteering expectation of the next new one, so the price has been pushed up to the left and right, which conforms to the new expectation at three o'clock. Compared with the background of currency security, it has started to explode all the way. After a few days in the vicinity, I quickly walked for two months. When the skyrocketing token market value was enlarged, for example, from 10 million dollars to 100 million dollars, it was difficult to continue to increase the market value of new types of coins. When its currency was not very bad, it was almost impossible to fall directly to the above currency price, so it was almost impossible to win, but the market value reached 100 million dollars. If the new market value was expanded, the income was still insufficient. If the hedging fund rate was counted, it might be returned. Losing money if the currency price fluctuates sharply in the hundreds of millions of dollars, then I will definitely lose money. This is the mistake, so I lost hundreds of thousands of dollars when I made a new call. At that time, I didn't understand that the new call ended and I went through more clearance. Now, after looking back, the trend is very certain and it continues to plummet, because the participants in the new call already know that it is a loss now, so the expectation of rising has completely disappeared. Since the expectation of skyrocketing is to make a new call, the reason for plunging back to the bottom can no longer be cheap, so it is impossible to buy. There are only two kinds of postures to make money. First, information can get short-term funds to enter the market at the first time and leave quickly. Second, the favorable date has not come yet, which leads to the plunge. Because the expected favorable conditions still exist effectively, once the favorable conditions are cashed or the expectations corresponding to the favorable conditions disappear, we can't continue to participate. We need to pursue the next more cost-effective thing. There are more than one token in the market that soars every month. If you want to buy a high price that is several times higher than the explosion, you should either control a very low proportion of positions to participate or keep calm and continue to wait for the next opportunity. Don't regret any missed opportunities, and don't always miss the expected coins. I have participated in a circle, but I don't regret that the wealth with the highest price doesn't belong to me. We must wait patiently to reduce the number of shots. There are too many market opportunities, and people's energy is limited. Every month, we can get two or three. Every opportunity will explode in one year, and the rate of return is not a good opportunity. It is either very small to participate or not to participate in the loss, which is often irrational. When the surge occurs, you must lighten your position instead of adding your position to lower the cost line, and then leave the market completely when it is expected to disappear. If you want to make money this year, you should need great patience to control your greed and fear at all times. I also do not work hard this year. Finally, I wish you all a good return and stability. The above contents have no investment value and do not constitute any investment advice. 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台
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