如果比特币ETF获得批准 可能会发生以下情况

After years of application failure, the US Securities and Exchange Commission is about to approve the first spot bitcoin in the United States. People have different opinions on what will happen in the cryptocurrency market if the spot bitcoin is approved. Some analysts say that the forecast of a large influx of investment is overdone. This week is the first year since the first block in the bitcoin blockchain was mined, and the backbone of the industry has been pleading for US securities trading for more than a decade. The Committee's approval of the US spot bitcoin exchange trading fund is expected to open the floodgates of a wave of institutional investment. So far, the US Securities and Exchange Commission has rejected all applications, but this situation may soon change. Analysts predict that at least one of the more than ten proposals will be approved as early as Friday. People have different views on what will happen in the encrypted market if it is approved. The director of digital asset strategy said that although the spot will create trillions of dollars in the long run. However, people often overestimate the initial impact of bitcoin in the United States. The initial flow will only be equal to hundreds of millions of dollars, most of which will be recycled money. Other analysts said that the approval will require issuers to buy tens of billions of dollars of bitcoin to meet the needs of institutions, which will lead to a fundamental change in the dynamics of supply and demand. Some analysts even predicted that there will be a supply shock after the foreign exchange balance fell to a five-year low in January. The lack of bitcoin in the exchange indicates that holders are reluctant to sell it in their personal wallets. Gold stocks are the first spot gold in the United States, which was launched in 2006. The analysis of capital inflow provides rich information. According to the data of cryptocurrency exchange, it accumulated $ billion in the previous week, and after deducting inflation, this figure increased to $ billion by the end of the first year. At present, the total assets are $ billion. A Nasdaq index tracking some of the most innovative companies in the world was launched in June, that is, the capital inflow of the fund was $ billion the year before the bursting of the Internet bubble. In today's dollars, the dollar is $ billion. Let's get down to business. The bitcoin strategy based on bitcoin futures accumulated about $ billion in inflation adjustment within days after its launch in June. At that time, the mood of the entire crypto asset class was very optimistic. As of Thursday, the fund held total assets of $ billion to invest in regulated futures instead of actual crypto currency, so it faced the risk of extension costs. Nevertheless, the fund has been closely tracking the spot price of bitcoin since its establishment and for those who hope. It is a feasible choice for people who come into contact with Bitcoin without ownership and storage troubles. Another consideration is the global economy, the rise of risk-free interest rates and the deterioration of household financial situation. This macroeconomic environment is in stark contrast to the strong growth of the spot mainstream market. How will the market react? Bitcoin has risen since the beginning of the month, mainly because it is expected that one or more spot applications will be approved, which prompted several analysts to predict that once the news of selling online will trigger a callback to their watches. Once the news is confirmed, as investors who benefit from the rise sell to lock in profits, the price will fall. Consider the debut of bitcoin futures in mid-June, the listing on Nasdaq and the debut of many futures. In those cases, bitcoin has been rising, but it collapsed within a few weeks after the incident. For example, within three days before the approval of the first batch of futures, bitcoin soared to a record high of US dollars and then fell into a continuous state. Last week, the bear market for more than a year said that Bitcoin may fall to US dollars because the unrealized profit in the market is historically at the level before the so-called price adjustment. In the cryptocurrency market, price adjustment is usually considered as a decline. Bitcoin rose last year and rose nearly this month. It is not the only company that predicts a decline. The cryptocurrency trading company headquartered in Singapore said in the newspaper last month that the initial demand for it may be lower than expected, thus laying the foundation for the classic news scene of selling. Investors who are basically worried about the recurrence of futures and the situation after the launch may need to pay attention to the fact that both of them happened when the market rose by hundreds in a month and it seems that the time is ripe for a correction. This time, it is expected that the spot launch will be carried out before the mining reward of Bitcoin blockchain is halved every four years, which marks the beginning of the rapid price increase. Previously, this week, the price briefly fell to the dollar sell-off, which led to the leveraged bet of billion dollars to close the position and eliminated the futures open position of billion dollars. The difference between the early news event of contract recovery of funds or new inflow of funds and this event is that spot bitcoin involves actual bitcoin, thus eliminating the market supply and the price drop caused by the introduction of futures, because after the fierce bull market led by unsustainable fanaticism in, it allows traders to comprehensively short cryptocurrency spot bitcoin. Another aspect is that institutional investors, such as typical conservative pension funds and insurance funds, will get a different kind of derivative or bitcoin agent stock. At present, there is a gold in the United States with total assets of US$ 100 million under management. A recent report by a financial services company compared them with potential bitcoin, saying that since the volatility of bitcoin is about times higher than that of gold, investors need about times less bitcoin than that of gold denominated in US dollars to reach the same level of risk exposure, which still means that the additional demand for bitcoin is close to US$ 100 million. 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台

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