比特币的2024 涨 or 跌?

币圈资讯 阅读:46 2024-04-22 10:58:34 评论:0
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比特币分叉与减半

2021年11月,最大的牛市之一时,比特币的价格达69,000美元。

但在2014年和2017年期间,比特币经历了几次硬分叉,社区中的各个派系都试图改变比特币的方向。尽管存在激烈的争论和多次分叉,但今日的比特币仍然坚挺,分叉币合计市值不及比特币总市值的1%。

比特币价格历史的另一个标志性节点是减半事件,大约每四年发生一次,并会降低新比特币的开采速度。下一次减半预计将在2024年5月左右。

许多投资者将减半事件视为影响比特币价格的最重要因素之一。但减半对价格影响及程度有多大,目前还没有定论。

2024年比特币走势如何?

比特币2024年的表现取决于各种潜在的看涨和看跌催化剂,包括机构应用、减半、监管变化和宏观经济趋势等众多因素。

2023年,一系列监管执法措施动摇了部分投资者对该行业的信心。美国商品期货交易委员会对加密交易平台币安及其创始人兼CEO赵长鹏“CZ”提起民事执法行动。11月币安与美国财政部和司法部达成和解,作为和解协议的一部分,CZ同意辞职并移交管理权。

币安未被被指控滥用客户资金,交易平台也并未发生挤兑现象。这是市场所希望的最好结果之一,加密资产价格也因此上涨。

币安事件犹如盘旋在加密资产上空的巨大阴云,而最终的和解协议则如一面巨大绿旗,一扫2024之前的阴霾。

利率与比特币

美联储主席鲍威尔表示,美联储可能已达到加息周期的顶峰,Sciberras认为这可能是2024年比特币反弹的催化剂。

当利率稳定或下降时,比特币等加密资产对投资者的吸引力就更大,因为普遍认为比特币可以对冲传统金融体系,并且其稀缺性正不断增加,尤其是在今年五月减半临近之际。

建议投资者关注个人消费支出(PCE)价格指数中的通胀指数,因为鲍威尔并未排除若通胀开始回升则进一步加息的可能性。

比特币将何去何从?

预测比特币的未来,需要考虑两种可能情况:牛市和熊市。

牛市

比特币的未来是否乐观可能取决于传统银行框架是否坚固。

全球经济存在严重问题,美国则面临银行业危机和不断增加的债务负担。2023年多家银行倒闭,但许多人忘记了导致倒闭的根本问题仍然存在。

如果2024年银行继续倒闭,政府可能被迫介入提供刺激或加印更多钞票,导致美元继续贬值。

在这种情况下,比特币作为一种已知的公平且灵活的资产,总供应量固定,游戏规则相对稳定,可能会更具吸引力。

比特币创新

我们可以看到一些积极的发展活动,由于Ordinals协议和BRC-20 等近期创新,比特币网络上区块空间的需求不断增加。

开采者的更高需求、效用和手续费可能有助于缓解对比特币长期安全预算的担忧。在比特币作为传统的价值储存手段认知外,闪电网络(可实现更快交易)的日益普及可能会加速比特币支付的更广泛应用。

如果比特币能够在支付领域继续取得进展并扩展应用,可以提高其整体效用——这也有助于推升价格攀新高。

目前闪电网络的应用仍处于早期阶段。过去两年,闪电网络的总支付额增长了1,212%。我们也观察到闪电网络通过增加支持克服了分发难题。

传统机构入场

2023年6月,全球最大的资产管理公司贝莱德 (BlackRock) 提交了启动比特币现货交易平台交易基金(ETF)的计划。其他多家机构也纷纷效仿,在贝莱德宣布这一消息后不久,WisdomTree、ARK Invest等机构就提交了首次申请或更新了现有申请。

此举推动了比特币价格在2023年12月升至近45,000美元的高位。

目前,SEC收到了近10份申请,而申请的最终结果也即将揭晓。2024年1月10日,SEC就将裁定贝莱德的申请是否通过。

现货比特币ETF的批准与否是影响2024年比特币价格的关键因素。因为现货ETF交易不仅需要实际买入比特币(因此可能会推高价格),而且还会大幅提升加密资产的合法性。

熊市?

从负面的角度来看,鉴于区块奖励将继续减少,人们对比特币的长期安全性感到担忧。另外,现货比特币ETF申请如果被拒绝也会带来潜在风险,从而造成比特币的短期抛售。

其次是关于比特币区块链上“铭文”的争议讨论,特别是随着更多的比特币流通和开采者对手续费的依赖增加,铭文有潜力可长期为协议产生手续费,但社区内部关于铭文对网络功能的影响也存在分歧。

某备受尊重的比特币原创开发者Luke Dashjr将铭文标记为“垃圾信息”。在他看来,它们使网络堵塞,使开采过程和网络的整体支持变得复杂。这种观点上的差异彰显了比特币社区内潜在的意识形态冲突。

环境影响

比特币对环境的影响不断被诟病,白宫提议对美国的比特币开采者征收高达30%的税。

如果比特币继续因其能源消耗而受到批评,可能会威胁到其价格走势。

政策问题

政策对比特币和加密资产的态度波动也可能导致价格下跌。

一个值得关注的现象:美国最近提出的一项法案扩大了《银行保密法》,并对数字资产交易(包括非托管钱包的交易)施加了更严格的报告要求。按照目前的形式,这项立法将削弱美国加密资产行业。

反洗钱(AML)和了解你的客户(KYC)法律的影响也让投资者感到担忧。反洗钱法仍然是一个巨大的挑战,可能会威胁到整个行业,因为合规可能极其困难。

比特币值得投资吗?

投资比特币风险收益并存,而了解这些是明智投资的关键。

总体而言,比特币的未来充满期待。

我们可以积极关注宏观经济背景、即将到来的5月份减半、闪电网络内可扩展性的改善以及可能的BTC ETF。

然而,比特币的未来仍面临诸多挑战。监管政策、能源问题及区块奖励减少的情况下的安全性问题,都仍是比特币长期可持续发展需要注意的问题。


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