2024年的10个预测

币圈资讯 阅读:37 2024-04-22 10:46:04 评论:0
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回顾过去的2023,Crypto总市值重返1.7万亿美元,年增长超110%,加密货币已经度过周期寒冬。

在这一年里,加密货币行业主要有以下事件,令人印象深刻:

1、Binance与美国监管达成和解,Crypto企业合规化渐成主流趋势;

2、比特币生态引领铭文Fair Launch新范式,主要源于Taproot升级带来的可行性。

3、以太坊的 LSD/LSDFi 定义了加密货币行业“无风险收益”,ETH Staking收益定位类似“Crypto国债收益”;

4、Layer2逐渐承接以太坊生态DApps,目前Layer2的TVL已达20B接近Ethereum的29B;

5、Solana再度成为热议话题,Solana生态以DePIN、MEME项目再度吸引市场关注;

6、RWA收益成为DeFi借贷协议盈利来源的压舱石,最赚钱的DeFi协议MakerDAO,58.1%的Revenues来源于RWA(主要是TBills)。

2024是甲辰龙年,立春日在2月4日,从这一天开始,二十年的九紫离火运正式开启,长期利好Crypto。

IOBC Capital认为,2024年可能主要有以下10个发展趋势:

1、比特币现货ETF审批通过后,可能带来30B+的增量资金

比特币现货ETF的上市,不仅会带来纳斯达克、纽交所、CBOE几个主流股票市场的潜在投资者,也方便了更多机构入场。结合市场上现存的比特币相关产品的管理规模,保守预测比特币现货ETF将带来30B+的增量资金。

2、比特币生态的铭文总市值可能达到20B+,唯有真正Fair Launch的头部MEME有中长期共识

Fair Launch是过往每一轮Crypto牛市早期阶段的核心发动机。比特币生态的铭文,按资产发行协议分类了Ordinals、Atomicals、Runes、PIPE、Taproot Assets等,在此不赘述这些协议的区别和优劣,从MEME币的角度来看待早期阶段的这些铭文,唯有真正Fair Launch的头部MEME有中长期共识。

3、Bitcoin Layer2将迎来迅速发展,利好比特币生态应用型Infra

自从ordinals NFT和BRC20被市场广泛关注后,2023年下半年出现了挺多Bitcoin Layer2的融资项目——有些采用客户端验证方式,可能更Bitcoin Native些;有些采用Rollup方式,基于以太坊Rollup的多年发展,可能发展会更迅速。

比特币生态及其layer2的发展,有利于比特币生态的基础设施。比如:Bitcoin生态的钱包Xverse等;Bitcoin Layer2 Lightec及其zkBridge和WrapBTC等。

4、Ethereum Layer2 TVL将超越Ethereum Layer1,可能达到100B+

Ethereum Layer1的TVL主要由LST协议贡献。截至目前,已有超过2860万个ETH被质押。因为有Lido(stETH)、Alluvial(LsETH)等流动性质押协议,Staked ETH的流动性重新被释放,从而有了更多基于LST的用例,比如以LST资产作为抵押品的永续合约和ReStaking等。有效提高了ETH的资金利用率。

随着各Layer2项目相继主网上线,各类dApps纷纷将主战场从以太坊 Layer1迁移到Gas费更低、速度更快的Layer2,2024年Layer2的TVL可能会比Layer1更高。

5、ZK Rollup的TVL体量仍然无法与Optimistic Rollup匹敌,但Ethereum Layer2 Components的zk类模块化组合将趋于完备

ZK Rollups及其配套Components的发展越来越精细化,过去一两年出现了各类专注于特定垂直细分领域的zk项目,比如 ZK co-processor、proof marketplaces/ZKProver(Risczero)、zkDevOps、Hardware Accelerators(Ingonyama)、zkOracle(Hyper Oracle)等。

zk类Components模块化组合的趋势,有助于降低开发人员构建zkDApps的门槛,并提供更大的灵活性。

6、Layerzero将于上半年发币,有望点燃Omnichain赛道

Layerzero已经支持54条链,累计发生了超过9600万条跨链Messages,生态内全链Applications数量超过35000个。

根据Layerzero官方Twitter号,将于2024年上半年发币,有望点燃Omnichain赛道的市场行情。

7、 Parallel EVM新叙事,将带动Sei v2等链的二次增长

Parallel EVM是一种通过同时运行多个(互不干扰的)交易来使区块链网络更快、更高效的方法。

现在主要有几个项目在尝试使用Parallel EVM。以Sei Network为例,Sei v2提出了paralllel EVM的重大升级,Sei v2将创建一个新组件来支持EVM智能合约,这些EVM智能合约也可以与现有的Cosmwasm智能合约进行交互。Sei v2链将乐观地并行运行所有交易,当存在冲突交易(互相干扰的)时,Sei区块链将跟踪每笔交易接触的存储部分,涉及存储不同部分的事务将并行重新运行,涉及相同状态的事务则按顺序重新运行。

除了Sei v2外,还有Neon EVM、Nomad等项目也在采用Parallel EVM提高性能。同时,EVM仍是最流行的DApp环境,这些链支持Parallel EVM,可以享受EVM生态的许多基础设施工具。

8、DePIN的市场规模可能增长10倍

DePIN是实现真正意义的Web3必不可少的基础设施,是Web3、Crypto项目是Web3网络健壮性的安全堡垒。

根据Depinscan统计数据,目前DePIN板块的Market Cap约为620亿美元,仍有非常大的增长空间。其中,Solana生态在DePIN赛道有多个项目比较受市场关注,包括Helium、Render Network、Hivemapper、Shadow、Media等。

9、可能出现带有强社交属性的爆款Autonomous World / Fully onchain games

全链游戏的FT/NFT资产、状态存储、逻辑执行都在链上,具有去中心化/社区自治、无需许可、可组合等特性。与传统游戏和非全链游戏相比,有两个关键优点:一是玩家的游戏资产长期存在、安全;二是游戏机制透明、可信。

游戏本身偏轻量级,但带有较强社交属性和高度可玩性的Fully on chain games可能会有小爆发,也许会以社交裂变和博彩特点吸引市场关注。

10、将会出现AI与Crypto在多个应用场景融合的明星案例

最先进生产力与最公平生产关系融合,共同塑造人类未来的新生活方式。在2024年,AI与Crypto可能会出现两个结合场景:

将比特币作为AI的支付货币可能是未来AI世界的基本规则。设置AI Agent / AI Bot自动执行各种任务、进行各类资源访问,在这个过程中利用加密基础设施和BTC进行自动化支付。

采用ZKML进行敏感数据训练和机器学习模型评估。通过zk来解决AI模型/ 输入的隐私保护问题和推理过程可验证问题,从而确保机器学习推理的正确性。从而基于ZKML来支持智能合约安全地调度AI Model,进而支持更多的应用逻辑和场景探索。


Looking back at the past, the total market value has returned to the trillion-dollar annual growth, and the cryptocurrency has passed the cycle of winter. In this year, the cryptocurrency industry has the following impressive events: it reached a settlement with American supervision, and corporate compliance has gradually become the mainstream trend. Bitcoin ecology leads the inscription, and the new paradigm mainly comes from the feasibility brought about by the upgrade. The definition of cryptocurrency industry has no risk income, and the income positioning is similar to that of national debt, and it has gradually become a hot topic again. Eco-project attracts market attention again, and the revenue becomes the source of profit of loan agreement. The most profitable agreement comes mainly from Jiachen, the Year of the Loong, beginning of spring, and the official opening of nine purple's 20-year-old away from the fire on January. It is believed that there may be the following development trends in 2008, which may bring incremental funds after the approval of bitcoin spot. The listing of bitcoin spot will not only bring potential investors in several mainstream stock markets on NASDAQ and NYSE, but also facilitate more opportunities. Combined with the management scale of existing bitcoin-related products in the market, it is conservatively predicted that the incremental funds that bitcoin spot will bring will reach the total market value of the inscription of bitcoin ecology. Only the real head has a medium-and long-term consensus, which is the core engine of the early stage of every bull market in the past. The inscription of bitcoin ecology is classified according to the asset issuance agreement, so I won't go into the differences and advantages and disadvantages of these agreements here. From the perspective of currency, only the real head has a medium-and long-term consensus. Welcome the rapid development and benefit the ecological application of Bitcoin. Since it was widely concerned by the market, there have been quite a few financing projects in the second half of last year. Some of them adopt the client authentication method, which may be more. Some of them adopt the method based on the years' development of Ethereum, which may develop more rapidly. Bitcoin ecology and its development, such as ecological wallets and their sums, will surpass the possible contributions. Up to now, more than 10,000 of them have been pledged because of their equal liquidity. The liquidity of the mortgage agreement has been released again, so that there are more use cases based on it, such as perpetual contracts with assets as collateral and other effectively improved capital utilization rates. With the successive projects, all kinds of main online lines have moved the main battlefield from Ethereum to a year with lower cost and faster speed, which may not be comparable to the higher volume, but the modular combination of classes will become more complete and its supporting development will become more and more refined. In the past one or two years, there have been various types of vertical segmentation. The trend of modular combination of projects, such as projects, will help lower the threshold for developers to build and provide greater flexibility. It is expected that money will be issued in the first half of the year to ignite the track. There have been more than 10,000 cross-chain chains in the ecosystem, and the number of all chains will exceed 100. According to the official number, money will be issued in the first half of the year to ignite the market situation of the track. The new narrative will drive the secondary growth of the equal chain. It is a method to make the blockchain network faster and more efficient by running multiple non-interference transactions at the same time. Several projects are trying to use the major upgrade proposed as an example. A new component will be created to support smart contracts. These smart contracts can also interact with existing smart contracts. The chain will happily run all transactions in parallel. When there are conflicting transactions interfering with each other, the blockchain will track the storage part of each transaction, which involves storing different parts of transactions. Transactions involving the same state will be re-run in parallel, and transactions involving the same state will be re-run in order. Besides, other projects are also being adopted to improve performance. At the same time, it is still the most popular environment. These chains support many infrastructure tools that can enjoy the ecology, and the market scale may increase twice, which is essential to realize the true meaning. Infrastructure is the project and the security fortress of network robustness. According to statistics, there is still a very large room for growth at present, and there are many projects in the ecological track that are more concerned by the market, including the possibility of explosions with strong social attributes. The asset state storage logic execution of full-chain games is all in the chain. Compared with traditional games and non-full-chain games, it has two key advantages: first, the player's game assets are safe for a long time; second, the game mechanism is transparent and credible; the game itself is lightweight, but with strong social attributes and high playability, there may be a small outbreak, which may attract market attention with the characteristics of social fission and gambling, and there will be a fusion of the most advanced productivity and the fairest production relationship with the star cases integrated in multiple application scenarios. To jointly shape the new life style of human beings in the future, there may be two combined scenarios in 2008. Taking Bitcoin as the payment currency may be the basic rule setting of the future world. In this process, encryption infrastructure and automatic payment are used to conduct sensitive data training and machine learning model evaluation to solve the privacy protection problem of model input and the verifiability problem of reasoning process, so as to ensure the correctness of machine learning reasoning, thus supporting the safe scheduling of smart contracts and supporting more application logic and scenario exploration. 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台

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