美国回购市场危机会在春季重演吗？

According to the official data of the Federal Reserve of new york, the amount of funds in the overnight reverse repurchase fund pool of the Federal Reserve has dropped to US$ 100 million, which is two-thirds lower than the relative high of US$ 100 million in last year. In Liu Jiaolian's article, the truth of the Federal Reserve and the article "The Great Layoff of the Federal Reserve in the Century" introduced that the means of the Federal Reserve to manipulate market interest rates are mainly through overnight repurchase and reverse repurchase, such as our implementation at the Fed's recent meeting on interest rates. You can usually see three paragraphs in the minutes of the bank. Translation is to take necessary open market operations to maintain the federal funds interest rate within the target range of% to carry out overnight repurchase agreement operations. The lowest bid rate is the total operating limit of $ billion, and the total operating limit can be temporarily raised at the discretion of the chairman for overnight reverse repurchase agreements operations. The bid rate is the daily limit of each counterparty of $ billion, and the limit of each counterparty can be temporarily raised at the discretion of the chairman. It is easy to put financial terms into the brain. The repurchase and reverse repurchase here are expressed from the standpoint of the Federal Reserve, taking American debt as the object. The so-called repurchase is that the Federal Reserve prints US dollars to buy American debt from the bank, so it is called repurchase and buy it back. Of course, it is sold the next day, which is actually that the bank buys American debt from the Federal Reserve, so this is called overnight market. Obviously, the purpose of repurchase is to temporarily release water to the bank. You say how thirsty the bank is. If the water will die overnight, please answer the overnight transaction of repurchase. Who pays interest to whom, just like who paid the repurchase rate last month. Think about us first, and then go on to say that reverse repurchase is naturally a reverse operation. If the bank has too much money, let it go and take it to the Fed. From the standpoint of the Fed, it is to throw out US debt and withdraw US dollars, which is equivalent to collecting water. Of course, it is also an overnight market to buy US debt again the next day. So who pays interest for reverse repurchase? It's not buying or selling, but borrowing money, so it's easy to get the answer, and it's very intuitive. Whoever gets the money in dollars pays interest, that is, whoever borrows money from the Federal Reserve pays interest, so repurchase is that banks borrow money from the Federal Reserve, and reverse repurchase is that the Federal Reserve borrows money from banks to pay interest, so we understand that repurchase is equivalent to The Federal Reserve provides banks with a loan product with a capped capital cost, and reverse repurchase is equivalent to a wealth management product with guaranteed income. If we look back at the dollar liquidity chart in the reverse repurchase reservoir above this article, we will have a big question: Why did trillions of dollars flow into this reverse repurchase reservoir from the middle of the year to the middle of the year? The answer to this question may have been written in the teaching chain article, Man-made prosperity and wealth are great. It can be guessed that this part of the money is not easy for banks to misappropriate, and there is no better investment outlet in the market, so it stays in this risk-free guaranteed income wealth management product provided by the Federal Reserve. Since the beginning of the year, the amount of funds in this reservoir has begun to decrease, which shows that the outflow of funds has flowed to other places, which corresponds to the rising of some stock markets and the rising of Bitcoin. This is a year if it continues to decline at this rate. The remaining billions of dollars were exhausted, that is, around the turn of spring and summer, just before and after bitcoin halved, when the market bet that the Federal Reserve would start the interest rate reduction process, when the reverse repurchase reservoir ran out of the last drop of water, banks would rush to borrow money because they were extremely thirsty, thus triggering the crisis in the repurchase market. The overnight repo rate for short-term loans between financial institutions suddenly blew out. The guaranteed overnight financing rate for measuring the overnight repo rate in the United States was only June. The interest rate of unsecured loans among financial institutions, which soared to 10% on the trading day, was also affected. The effective federal funds rate for measuring such interest rates exceeded the target range set by the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve Bank of new york intervened in an emergency and injected $ billion into the repo market every month. After that, it invested $ billion every morning until the weekend. The Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve lowered the bank reserve interest rate and combined with the measures of the Federal Reserve Bank of new york finally brought the market back to a stable interest rate. After the return to stability on March, the Federal Reserve Bank of new york continued to regularly invest liquidity in the repo market until March. Although the cause of the crisis is inconclusive, some economists have analyzed that March is the deadline for paying quarterly corporate tax, and the newly issued national debt in the United States has jointly led to a temporary shortage of cash in the financial system, which has aggravated the situation and led to a sharp rise in interest rates. The calendar date of the Fed meeting happened to be the interest rate meeting in January of that year. On the first day of the meeting, the time when the crisis broke out was really coincidental, as if it were a capital death. Let me show you that the interest rate range of the previous monthly interest rate meeting was set in such a noisy month. The Federal Reserve obediently lowered the interest rate range to the writing. At this point, the scene of rural aunts knocking on the washbasin and blocking the village government came to mind. Wall Street's scene of making trouble at the Federal Reserve was the same as each other. Then six months later, it was famous. The big fuse economy has fallen into recession. Refer to the audio lecture of the teaching chain of the month of June to talk about the history and future of Bitcoin in the context of the COVID-19 epidemic and the big fuse of US stocks. It has been a year, month and day in a blink of an eye. The chief economist publicly pointed out that under the current high benchmark interest rate level and the tightening cycle of the US dollar, if the bank reserves are insufficient, the liquidity problem will probably lead to a recurrence of the repurchase crisis in 2008, which will force the Fed to stop quantitative tightening, especially when the Fed's reverse repurchase funds are exhausted overnight. Experts will face the loss of basis trading, which will force them to sell US Treasury bonds and then induce a liquidity run. I wonder if Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will learn a lesson and take precautions in advance this time. 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台

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