牛市投资指南 如何判断牛初和牛尾?

币圈资讯 阅读:38 2024-04-22 10:28:06 评论:0
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作者:BITWU.ETH 来源:X,@BTW0205

牛市的显著特征,就是整个进程中会至少出现两到三次的中途大调整,每次调整完之后就会继续高歌猛进;

除非是最后一次下跌,不然前面的下跌都是为了更好的上涨,然后一次比一次高,等到最后一次调整的时候就会牛市终结断崖下跌;

那么,尽可能准确地判断出哪次下跌是为了更好的上涨,哪次上涨是处在最后的“疯狂”期,这个非常重要。

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各个赛道轮动,市场情绪暴涨,机会越来越多,手上资产开始成倍的增值。在这个进程中,我刷推的时间会增加,聚餐的次数也会越来越频繁,正是为了尽可能准确地判断大众对于当下牛市的“狂热”程度。情绪面来说,这是一个重要的判断依据。

这个阶段就是所谓的牛初,我认为牛初才是机会最多的时候,是积累资本最快的时候。熊市大家都不动弹装死,市场一片死寂;牛市高峰大家接近癫狂,机会减少坑人的玩意增多;只有牛初是机会多相对收益高。

这个时候不要怕下跌,尽可能多的去发现机会,一定要想办法,留住本金并且在众多机会中挑选出回报收益比最好的,下重注,然后在情绪最高的疯牛阶段,分阶段抛出你牛初建仓的资产,如此一个周期下来,你的财富才能实现质的飞跃。

至于如何判断最后一次调整,或可能大跌的转熊阶段,以我之前的经验,我之前提到过,我对于大盘任何时期的判断都来源于:情绪理论+具体盘面。

情绪前面讲过。至于盘面,正常的牛市推进过程,应该是“量增价涨”,也就是说后面一波上涨的成交堆量应该大于调整之前那一拨上涨的成交堆量。如果哪一波的上涨出现了明显的背离,也就是说新一波上涨的成交堆量并没有创新高、甚至小于之前一波的成交堆量,但是点位却屡创新高,这个就是高度危险的信号了,说明随时可能变盘。

要知道,这种情况下的变盘一旦发生,杀伤力会极大。

在这个冲刺赶顶的阶段,千万不要被账户每天暴涨的市值所迷惑,要清醒地认识到,趋势投资是不可能出在顶点的,必然会有一定幅度的利润回撤,如果还是一直盯着账户的曾经最高市值,幻想出在最高点位,那就和绝大多数杀红眼的赌徒没什么区别了,很有可能会被侥幸心理所左右,最终硬扛过整个“疯熊”,以悲剧收场。

因为人们在面临损失的时候,总是喜欢冒险一博,这就是人性的弱点,非常容易因为损失而丧失理智,从而无视更大的风险,选择孤注一掷。


The remarkable feature of the author's source bull market is that there will be at least two or three mid-course adjustments in the whole process, and after each adjustment, it will continue to triumph, unless it is the last decline, otherwise the previous decline will be for a better rise, and then the bull market will end the cliff decline when it is adjusted for the last time, so it is very important to judge as accurately as possible which decline is for a better rise and which rise is in the last crazy period. There are more and more opportunities for emotional skyrocketing, and the assets in hand begin to multiply in value. In this process, the time I spend brushing and pushing will increase, and the number of dinners will become more and more frequent. It is precisely in order to judge the enthusiasm of the public for the current bull market as accurately as possible. This is an important basis for emotional judgment. This stage is the so-called early bull market. I think the early bull market is the fastest time to accumulate capital. In the bear market, everyone will not move and pretend to be dead. The bull market peak is close to madness. There are fewer opportunities and more gadgets in cheat people. At this time, don't be afraid to fall. Find as many opportunities as possible. You must find ways to keep the principal and choose the one with the best return-return ratio among many opportunities, and then throw out the assets of your initial position in stages in the mad cow stage with the highest emotion. Only after such a cycle can your wealth achieve a qualitative leap. As for how to judge the last adjustment or the bear-turning stage that may plummet, I have my previous experience. As mentioned earlier, my judgment on the market at any time comes from the emotional theory, and the specific market emotions. As for the normal bull market promotion process of the market, it should be volume increase and price increase, that is to say, the transaction volume of the next wave of increase should be greater than that of the previous wave of increase. If there is an obvious deviation from which wave of increase, that is to say, the transaction volume of the new wave of increase is not a new high or even smaller than that of the previous wave, but the point is a new high. The danger signal shows that the market may change at any time. You should know that the market change in this case will be extremely lethal once it happens. At this stage of sprinting to the top, don't be confused by the soaring market value of the account every day. You should clearly realize that trend investment is impossible to be at the top, and there will be a certain profit retreat. If you keep staring at the highest market value of the account and fantasize that it is at the highest point, it is no different from most gamblers who kill red eyes, and you are likely to be left by luck. Right finally carried the whole crazy bear hard and ended in tragedy, because people always like to take a gamble when facing losses. This is the weakness of human nature, and it is very easy to lose their minds because of losses and ignore greater risks and choose to put all your eggs in one basket. 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台

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