投资界巨兽 USV 谈投资理念

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原文标题:Investing at the Edge of Large Markets Under Transformative Pressure

作者:Nick Grossman

自 2004 年 Brad 和 Fred 部署第一支 USV 基金,至今 USV 已成立 20 周年。彼时,互联网泡沫刚刚破裂、智能手机尚未发明、“社交媒体” 这一概念还没有出现、第一笔比特币交易五年之后才产生 — Union Square Ventures

自 2004 年以来,我们已筹集并投资了共 14 支基金(8 支早期 “Core” Funds、2 支早期 Climate Funds 和 4 支 Opportunity Funds),并在多个类别和技术领域进行了 230 多项投资,包括:社交媒体、市场、开发者工具、学习、健康、金融科技、web3 和去中心化系统,以及能源和气候领域等等。

纵观我们的发展历程,我们围绕着一个个所能催生新范式的技术或社会变革性时刻逐渐构建出了我们的投资主题:

  • 2003-2004 年的机会是互联网应用层的构建,而那些互联网泡沫时期核心的基础设施投资能够在这一点上发挥重要优势。

  • 到 二十一世纪中期,人们清楚地认识到,构建新网络(社交网络、市场等)作为一种更具指向性且潜能巨大的互联网应用程序类型是可能且有前景的。

  • 然后,随着基础泛网络在 2010 年代初开始巩固,我们开始寻找更窄的垂直网络(例如学习和健康领域)、新的基础设施层(开发者工具、金融科技)和去中心化计算系统(区块链和加密市场)。

  • 随着互联网应用在2010年代末期对全球经济的中心地位愈发重要,我们开始寻求利用它们来扩大我们对关键资源的涉猎(如知识、资本和福利),并寻找机会增强我们对这些关键系统的信任。

  • 临近 2020 年,随着气候危机的加剧速度变得越来越明显,我们开始寻求那些试图转型的创业机会,它们不仅是处于减轻其所受影响,更重要的是加速能源转型并适应不断变化的世界。

  • 如今,我们看到大语言模型 (LLMs) 和人工智能的指数级增长,这使得相关软件的普遍性和实用性正在不断提升,同时,新形式的数字信任的必要性也变得越来越清晰。

回顾这 20 年跨越不同时期和不同领域的投资历史,我们最近开始问自己:我们的投资方法中有什么是贯穿始终的因素?我们是这样描述的:

USV 投资那些催生于技术和社会压强的变革性的大市场边缘。

在时间、行业和技术的跨度中,我们一直并将继续寻找一组我们认为会引导创新产品和体验的共同属性:

边缘

大市场“边缘”往往是引入新想法和新途径的最佳场所。处于边缘的初创公司往往一开始看起来很奇怪,但有潜力以令人惊讶的新方式挑战现有企业。

例如,早期的社交媒体看起来并不像是在与传统媒体竞争;早期的加密货币看起来也并不像是在与金融系统竞争;许多消费性的学习产品看起来并不像是在与传统教育系统正面竞争。

新技术让以前的不可能成为可能。事后来看,这些新行为似乎不过如此,但在它们出现时并非如此,而是需要实验性探索。快速实验是取得进步的最快途径,但改变一个行业是困难的,因为机构和那些已经站在舞台上的人往往会对此表示不屑甚至抵制。

“边缘”法,如消费者优先、生产性消费者、开发者优先和开源模式,它们有可能避开市场看门人,使得实验更为自由。因此我们爱他们。

压强

技术性和社会性压强可能会打破现有的市场结构,为新公司和网络以新方式满足市场需求创造机会窗口。

技术性压强可能包括新技术和平台,例如新的操作系统、加密资产和人工智能堆栈。最高强度的技术性压强催生了新的商业模式,而这些模式往往是现有企业无法追赶的结构性转变。

社会压力可能包括气候危机、对公民机构的信任丧失,或社会规范和态度的改变等全球性力量。这些压力可以迅速产生原本难以想象或至少认为可能性不大的行为变化。

这些压强汇集在一起就可能会导致原本静态的市场结构变得动态。初创公司有机会根据这些压强调整自己的位置,让自己能够在处于劣势的位置依然可以对抗传统企业 (译者注:此处引用了孙子兵法军争篇中的“故用兵之法,高陵勿向,背丘勿逆”)。我们不断地在寻找这些压强,并为初创公司寻找这些压强背后的选秀机会。

展望未来

展望未来 20 年 USV 的投资:随着全球变化的加速、随着新技术的出现和成熟,我们将继续编写和发布相关论文来阐述我们的新发现,但我们希望这些新发现始终与这一总体框架保持一致,即,在变革压强的推动下,在大型市场的边缘寻找机会。

很高兴能和那些在理念上与我们保持一致的创始人合作,并期待与你们继续在边缘探索。


The author of the original title has celebrated its anniversary since the deployment of the first fund in, when the internet bubble just burst and the concept of social media has not yet been invented. The first bitcoin transaction did not appear until five years later. Since, we have raised and invested in mutual funds to support the early stage and made many investments in various categories and technical fields, including social media market developers' tools to learn health financial technology and decentralized systems, as well as energy and climate fields. Throughout our development process, we have gradually built our investment theme year around the technological or social transformative moments that can give birth to new paradigms. The opportunity is the construction of the Internet application layer, and those core infrastructure investments in the Internet bubble period can play an important role in this point. By the middle of the 21st century, people clearly realize that it is possible and possible to build a new network, social network market and so on as a more directional and potential Internet application type. Promising, then, as the basic pan-network began to consolidate in the early 1990 s, we began to look for narrower vertical networks, such as new infrastructure layers in the fields of learning and health, developers' tools, financial technology and decentralized computing systems, blockchain and encryption markets. As the internet application became more and more important to the central position of the global economy in the late 1990 s, we began to seek to use them to expand our involvement in key resources such as knowledge capital and welfare, and to find opportunities to enhance our trust in these key systems. As the climate crisis intensifies in the coming year, the speed becomes more and more obvious, and we begin to seek entrepreneurial opportunities that try to transform. They are not only trying to alleviate their impact, but more importantly, accelerating energy transformation and adapting to the changing world. Now we see the exponential growth of large language models and artificial intelligence, which makes the universality and practicability of related software constantly improve, and the necessity of new forms of digital trust becomes more and more clear. The history of investment in the same field. Recently, we began to ask ourselves what are the factors that run through our investment methods. This is how we describe investing in the revolutionary big market edges that are born out of technical and social pressures. In the span of time, industry and technology, we have been and will continue to look for a group of common attributes that we think will guide innovative products and experiences. The big market edge is often the best place to introduce new ideas and new ways. Start-ups on the edge often look at it at first. It is strange in the future, but it has the potential to challenge existing enterprises in surprising new ways. For example, early social media does not seem to be competing with traditional media, and early cryptocurrency does not seem to be competing with the financial system. Many consumer learning products do not seem to be competing with the traditional education system, and new technologies make the previous impossible possible. In hindsight, these new behaviors seem to be so, but when they appear, they are not, but they need experimental exploration and rapid implementation. Testing is the fastest way to make progress, but it is difficult to change an industry, because institutions and those who have already stood on the stage often disdain or even resist marginal methods, such as consumer priority, productive consumer priority and open source model. They may avoid market gatekeepers and make experiments more free, so we love them. Technical and social pressures may break the existing market structure and create window technology for new companies and networks to meet market demand in new ways. Sexual pressure may include new technologies and platforms, such as new operating systems, encrypted assets and artificial intelligence stacks. The highest intensity of technical pressure has spawned new business models, which are often structural changes that existing enterprises can't catch up with. Social pressure may include global forces such as the loss of trust in civil institutions due to the climate crisis or the change of social norms and attitudes. These pressures can quickly produce behavioral changes that were unimaginable or at least considered unlikely. From the beginning, it may lead to the dynamic market structure. Start-ups have the opportunity to adjust their position according to these pressures, so that they can still fight against traditional enterprises in a disadvantaged position. Emergence and maturity We will continue to write and publish relevant papers to explain our new findings, but we hope that these new findings will always be consistent with this overall framework, that is, to seek opportunities on the edge of large markets under the pressure of change. I am very happy to cooperate with the founders who are consistent with us in concept and look forward to continuing to explore on the edge with you. 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台

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