个人分享:加密投资之道

币圈资讯 阅读:39 2024-04-22 10:14:46 评论:0
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作者:王峰,Twitter @wangfeng_0128;来源:SevenUp DAO

我给内部团队写的加密货币市场投资心得,其实,我试图做一个三年实验,如何用最简单方式,看趋势看人看资产,今天管理一个1000万美金加密基金,今年底管理1亿美金基金,未来三年内YY一下,说不定可以管理一个10亿美金基金。

原本十条,写着写着刹不住。周四,一边开会一边手写。这是第一稿,往后可能续。不喜勿喷。

1/ 做一级半市场基金

加密货币市场投资,完全不同于过去我们在传统互联网接触到的天使、VC和PE。这个最活跃的新兴市场,是以二级市场投资为基础,一级市场投资为品牌赋能的经济体。

这背后有一个非常重要的逻辑,我们完全可以是通过参与一级市场,做深研究,了解项目项目一手信息,然后在二级市场中更早地发挥威力。

而不是等待一级市场,两年到四年的锁仓回报。原生的、去中心化的、乃至多渠道的流动性,是加密市场的独特魅力。所以,我们要做的,其实是一级半投资市场。

2/ 和最活跃的创业者站在一起

努力和最好的项目站在一起。要有能力和最好的创业者之间,有通畅联系。要知道他们想什么,是他们为我们提供一线的市场信号,看懂市场参照系和参照对象。唯有这样做,才能让我们搜寻以及判断依据,判断下一个更好的项目在哪里。所谓和创业者学习,这是最宝贵的地方。情绪上,你进入了与创业者一起发展状态的空间,有一些共鸣,一定不是坏事。

3/ 迅速拿回本金

初期投资的项目,进入早都非常便宜,可能有三倍五倍甚至更高常有的时候,比如你Staking赚到的,即使成本不高,也要迅速拿回本金,不贪婪,养成习惯。尤其是对刚进入市场的项目,它们大多没有上更大的交易所,流动性严重不足,一旦市场整体情绪出现问题,拿回本金都困难,会被长期套牢。

我们有足够可以出发的本金,就有下一次的抄底,下一步的新标的。

4/ 长期持有头部项目

资产组合中的重点,75—80%必须是当下的头部,尤其要注重找新兴板块的绝对头部,比如底层协议和交易平台,大投资从来不看消息面,看的是真正的趋势。一旦我们要调整仓位,也是对旧头部的替换,对新头部的补充。

5/ 投资是横向思维

创业做项目,是纵向思维,越挖越深。投资者惯用的,恰是横向思维,是横向标的中设计组合,一个细分市场的头部找到了,要寻找下一个新市场和新头部。主动去找新标的,发现新题材,不要迷恋一个板块。有人对一个板块的协议投资了,觉得自己很懂很专业,就在这个协议之下不断买入标的,一环一环,其实大可不必。你拿到头部就好。

过去我们常听到说,投资人要投自己懂的市场,其实哪有人先天就懂。往往你看到的所谓懂,也是因为投资以后才真正懂的。甚至很多投资者进入项目,方才吓得一身汗,全不是自己最初认知的那样。加密货币行业中,变化更快。这个领域的投资者,拼的是不断学习的动量,笃定看见机会的胆量、能及时改错筹码的容量。

6/ 精力在决策不在管理

这个本质,出来做投资,精力可以集中在“搞研究,做决策”。投资要扣扳机的,最后关键一步,是对信息搜集的直接响应。做投资不是做管理,见过一些其实不算大的机构,觉得下面有很多人才,管理好他们就行,人才济济,开会都是八卦风格,就糟糕了。其实,更多的人进来,信息中固然可能有好的,但更多是不同调式交响后的可怕噪音,人一多节奏不对,PPT不用写。内心里要投资的标的,如果心动到要抱上去亲一口,怎么会要靠PPT润色。做投资决策,不要变复杂。

加密行业的投资,常常不能拖,市场嗅觉到了,要立即行动。否则涨起来再上车,说好拿来决策的胆子,断然怂了一半,然后可能气急败坏,甚至管不好心态,一错再错。

7/ 最好两人合伙一起干

这个和我们组织创业团队一样。二人组合,简直是十分理想的结构,可以看看专业组合和能力组合。两人中的专业互补,一人有产品及技术,一人有经济或金融,哪怕社会学和心理学。从能力或者个性维度看,有人长于组织资源,有人长于做影响力。以上,都是专业能力上的金牌组合。

若是,一个投资团队,两人甚至多人,一不懂技术,二不写推特,甚至连社群都找不到他们,在这个鱼龙混杂的行业,应该不好混。哪个行业都鱼龙混杂,都不好混。

所以,你们二人的优势是什么?

8/ 必能对自己专长过于迷信

做投资,要小心陷入无休无止的K线思维,一旦上瘾就是短线空多思维,犹如一个产品研发团队,仅仅陷入不休无止的纯编码思维一样,忙碌在在代码中,看起来又专业又努力,几乎没有时间见客户,最后往往耗尽无用功。

有一种类型的人,非常喜欢一种工具或者方法,到了熟能生巧的阶段,其实,过于用技术路径依的人,一旦开始忽略外部世界,往往看不起不一样,一旦发现,变化不在自己旧有工具范畴可以解析,就说是玄学的。这样的人,活在装修精致的井里,也未必适合投资。

其实,无论做投资和做产品,有一个共性,要审时度势,就不能对自己专长过于自信。要先跳出,画外看画。

9/为什么下注难

一个好标的,往往知道的人很少,持币的人不多。一旦很多人持有了,很大的名声了,说明项目已经错过投资进入最好阶段。所以,做投资,也是拼反着来的感觉,拼下注的勇气。投在无人问津时。去年,我让一个同事去看一个比特币新的资产协议代币,他一看只有不到1000个钱包地址,就说市场太早期,没戏。转头就去盯比特币K线了。其实,我们进入加密货币市场,就是因为对那种可以有至少100倍回报的故事动心。

有一句话,你可以当玩笑听。这么多年来,我对人的观察,花钱有快感的人,适合投资。

10/创业者基因

投资团队中,若有很强创业者背景,很加分。一个好创业者,且不论其成败大小,总要保持着一个最重要的品质,那就是饥渴感。事实证明,这个和一个人让你年龄没有关系。能说出“Stay hungry,Stay foolish”,乔布斯绝对是看透人性的。反之,一个有大厂背景看似风光的人,则可能是减分。

十多年来,见到很多不大成功甚至失败的创业者,出来做投资,逆袭者多。也见到一些非常成功的职业经理人出来做投资,在乎门面,根本不干活,为什么?人家的事业成就感早就满足了。这些大公司高管出来,在大厂积累的毛病不会改,权当是把LP给的钱做提前退休的门面。

11/管好心里预期

投资终究是看回报的,该退出时要退出。退出时,你别关心下一个进入接棒的人有多牛,是否有更多的投资者加入后多大声势。卖在人声鼎沸时,这话固然是真理。什么时候是沸腾点?你只需要关心一件事,管理好预期,你的账面回报有多少倍了,达到你最初制定的预期了吗?

一个人以提高能力为基础小目标,包括专业、认知、精力和魅力,都是可以通过锻炼提升。出身是命,无论贵贱。发大财靠大运。能一步一步赚到钱,就算本事。问题是,你打算挣到多大的钱?

务实一点,活得长。活着,就有YY的机会。

写着写着,就俗了。最初进入加密市场,五年前,我曾说将来写《我对加密资产观》,以此做一个总结。念念不忘,无从下手。五年后,虽一筹莫展,却也竟然学习很多皮毛。过去这五年,仅仅是对市场、经济和金融这些通识给补上一课。唯一幸运的是,我饥渴感十足。

更新/以下的四条正确意见,可以反着听。

其中的一些结论,正在一年一年被逐渐打破。而创新者需要的是,笃定自己的认知,愿赌服输。

1/ NFT没戏!——Token更直接。小图片搞非同质化资产。怎么可能?

2/ 比特币很好,就够了!——可编程性扩展?以太坊有了,就不要重复造轮子。

3/ 链游绝对没有机会!——要是我想玩游戏,为什么不去主机和网游?

4/ 更早的时候,我还听一位币圈有丰富经验的前辈,亲口对我说,defi就是资金盘一阵风的。千万别碰


Author Wang Feng came from my experience in investing in cryptocurrency market written for the internal team. In fact, I tried to do a three-year experiment on how to look at trends, people and assets in the simplest way. Today, I managed a US$ 100 million cryptocurrency fund at the end of this year. In the next three years, I might be able to manage a US$ 100 million fund. Originally, ten articles said that I couldn't stop writing while meeting on Thursday. This is the first draft. In the future, I may continue to like it or not to spray it as a first-and-half-market fund. The investment in cryptocurrency market is completely different. There is a very important logic behind the angel we met on the traditional Internet and the most active emerging market, which is an economy based on secondary market investment and empowered by primary market investment. We can fully understand the first-hand information of the project by participating in the primary market and then exert our power in the secondary market earlier, instead of waiting for the return of the primary market for two to four years. The original decentralized and even multi-channel liquidity is encrypted market. The unique charm of the market, so what we have to do is actually to stand with the most active entrepreneurs in the first-and-a-half investment market, strive to stand with the best projects, have the ability to have smooth contact with the best entrepreneurs, know what they think, provide us with a first-line market signal, understand the market reference system and reference object, and only in this way can we search and judge where the next better project is, so-called learning from entrepreneurs is the most precious place for you emotionally. Entering the space of developing together with entrepreneurs, it is certainly not a bad thing to have some resonance. It is very cheap to get back the principal quickly in the initial investment projects, which may be three times, five times or even higher. Sometimes, for example, even if the cost you earn is not high, you should get back the principal quickly and get into the habit of not being greedy, especially for the projects that have just entered the market, most of them are not on a bigger exchange, and the liquidity is seriously insufficient. Once the overall market mood has problems, it will be difficult to get back the principal for a long time. We have The principal that is enough to start will have the next bargain-hunting and the next new target. The long-term holding of the head project portfolio must focus on the current head, especially on finding the absolute head of the emerging sector, such as the underlying agreement and trading platform. The big investment never looks at the news, but it is the real trend. Once we want to adjust the position, it is also the replacement of the old head. The supplementary investment in the new head is horizontal thinking. Entrepreneurial projects are vertical thinking, and investors are used to horizontal thinking. In the horizontal bid, the head of a market segment has been found. In order to find the next new market and new head, take the initiative to find a new target and discover new themes. Don't be infatuated with a plate. Some people feel that they know a lot and are professional, so they keep buying a link of the target under this agreement. In fact, it is not necessary for you to get the head. In the past, we often heard that investors should invest in the market they know. In fact, no one knows it by nature, and what you see is often because of investment. I didn't really understand it until after I entered the project. Even many investors were scared to sweat. It's not what they initially recognized. The cryptocurrency industry is changing faster. Investors in this field are determined to learn constantly, and the courage to see opportunities can correct the capacity of chips in time. The energy is not in the nature of decision-making, but in investment. The energy can be concentrated on research and decision-making. The last key step to trigger investment is to respond directly to information collection, and to make investment rather than management. In fact, institutions that are not too big think that there are a lot of talents below to manage them well. The meetings are all in gossip style, which is bad. In fact, more people come in. Although there may be good information, it is more terrible noise after different modes of symphony. People have more than one rhythm, and they don't have to write down the target of investment in their hearts. If they are tempted to embrace it and kiss it, how can they make investment decisions by polishing it? Don't become complicated. Investment in the encryption industry often can't drag on the market, otherwise it will rise immediately. Get on the bus, say yes, and the courage to make decisions is half-hearted, and then you may be flustered or even fail to manage your mentality. It is best for two people to work together to do this, just like our entrepreneurial team. The combination of two people is simply an ideal structure. You can look at the professional combination and the ability combination. One person has products and technology. Even if you look at sociology and psychology from the perspective of ability or personality, some people are good at organizational resources and some are good at making influence. If an investment team has two or more people who don't know the technology, don't write Twitter or even can't find the community, they shouldn't be easy to mix in this mixed industry, so what is the advantage of both of you? You must be too superstitious about your expertise and invest. Be careful to fall into endless line thinking. Once addicted, it will be short-term and empty thinking, just like a product research and development team just falling into endless pure coding thinking. The code looks professional and hard-working, and there is almost no time to meet customers. In the end, there is a type of people who like a tool or method very much. When practice makes perfect, they actually rely too much on technical paths. Once they start to ignore the outside world, they often look down on differences. Once they find that changes are not in their old tools, they can be analyzed and said to be metaphysical. Such people living in a well with exquisite decoration may not be suitable for investment. Judge the situation, you can't be too confident in your own expertise. You have to jump out of the picture and look at the painting first. Why is it difficult to bet on a good target? Very few people often know it. Once many people hold a great reputation, it shows that the project has missed the investment and entered the best stage, so it is also the feeling of fighting for the courage to bet. Last year, when no one cares, I asked a colleague to see a new bitcoin asset agreement token. When he saw that there was no wallet address, he said that the market was too early to turn. In fact, we entered the cryptocurrency market because we are tempted by stories that can pay at least twice the return. There is a saying that you can listen as a joke. Over the years, I have observed that people who are happy to spend money are suitable for investing in entrepreneurs. If there is a strong entrepreneurial background in the genetic investment team, a good entrepreneur will always maintain one of the most important qualities, regardless of his success or failure. Facts have proved that this has nothing to do with a person's age, and it can be said that Jobs definitely sees through human nature. On the contrary, a person with a big factory background and seemingly beautiful scenery may be reduced for more than ten years. 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台

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