计算机vs赌场:加密行业的文化战争

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作者:RICHARD CHEN,GP 1confirmation;编译:Jaleel,BlockBeats

编者按:在这篇文章中,RICHARD CHEN 精辟地探讨了加密货币行业当前面临的文化战争,分析了加密货币行业的两大阵营——「加密计算机派」与「加密赌场派」,并阐述了这种分歧是如何形成的。文章不仅限于分析现状,更提出了具体的解决方案,建议行业从零和游戏转向创造更多正和体验。借助 Steve Wynn 在拉斯维加斯赌场业务上的成功经验,作者指出了加密货币行业可以学习的地方,即关注于赌博之外的体验,为加密货币领域的未来发展提供了新的视角和思考。BlockBeats 将原文编译如下:

毫无疑问,对任何一个在加密行业里的 OG 来说,过去一年这个行业的文化发生了重大变化。

加密社区的建设者之间开始出现一场文化战争,这场战争是早期纯粹主义者(加密计算机派)和后来的游客(加密赌场派)之间的对立。我将解释这两个政治派别的立场以及我们如何走到今天这场冲突,然后为加密行业如何解决其文化战争勾画出一条细致的前进路径。

加密计算机派

这个阵营的人们相信行业创始人中本聪的理想,即将权力从腐败的机构中分散到人民手中。

他们倾向于是早期进入加密行业的人。2013 年的一批人主要是货币自由主义者,他们因比特币作为对抗鲁莽货币政策的避险手段而被吸引。对于这些铁杆 Ron Paul gold bugs 来说,比特币将是吸收联邦储备货币印刷过剩的流动性海绵。

译者注:「Ron Paul gold bugs」指的是那些坚定支持前美国众议员 Ron Paul 观点的人,Ron Paul 因其对金本位制的支持和对美国联邦储备系统批评而知名。他的追随者,被称为「Ron Paul gold bugs」。这些人通常认为金本位或类似的金融系统能提供更稳定和可靠的价值储存方式,特别是在对抗货币贬值和中央银行的货币政策方面。在这个语境中,比特币被视为一种「流动性海绵」,吸收由于美联储(Federal Reserve)过度印钞而产生的经济中的额外流动性。换言之,对于这些「Ron Paul gold bugs」来说,比特币是一种对抗传统金融系统和中央银行政策的工具,特别是在它们看来,这些政策可能导致货币贬值和经济不稳定。

2017 年的一批人(我就是这一代)主要是技术人员,他们或许不像上一代那么意识形态化,但也被加密作为一种新的计算范式所吸引。以太坊展示了去中心化应用程序(dApps)的可能性,使你不仅仅是读写数据,而是拥有它们。随之而来的是 web3 的概念,以及去中介化大型科技公司和互联网的守门人。

今天,这两批人代表了仍然相信中本聪愿景并对推动这个领域前进的新用例和产品持乐观态度的沉默大多数。然而,与此同时,他们害怕对影响者炒作的当前热门庞氏骗局说出任何负面的话,以免遭到网络暴民的攻击。因此,他们保持沉默。

加密赌场派

这个阵营的人们愤世嫉俗地认为加密不过是一个去中心化的赌场,并希望保持这种状态。建设的目的是为赌场增加更多房间。也就是找到新的创造性方法来超金融化一切并进行投机——无论是使用手机对朋友的净资产进行投机,还是使用 Telegram bots 对 shitcoin 进行投机。

他们大部分是在 2021 年后期进入加密行业的人,来自交易员背景和金融背景。他们是非常直言不讳的少数派,擅长于推特上的互动耕种。因此,他们主导了在线话语,并在早期纯粹主义者和后来的「游客」之间制造紧张,就像本土主义者对不融入和改变文化的移民怀有怨恨一样。

他们大部分还很年轻。我的假设是,这是零利率政策(ZIRP)持续十年和传统金融系统对千禧一代和 Z 世代的失败的「二阶效应」。年轻人越来越觉得他们需要快速致富,以偿还学生贷款和负担房屋抵押贷款。当人们觉得自己永远陷入激烈竞争时,他们会转向赌场,试图通过赌博摆脱困境。

这一切是如何发生的?

赌场对于引导使用非常有用。这是因为 degen 们是早期采用者。他们有风险容忍度成为未经证实的金融产品的 beta 测试者。外人很容易忽视 degen 们,但他们是加密的命脉。他们是在战壕中的蓝领工人,亲手尝试每一种新产品。

在加密货币熊市期间,没有新用户进入这个领域。应用程序在增加用户方面陷入困境,被迫专注于现有的 degen 强用户基础。从短期来看这是可以的,因为交易量主要由强用户驱动。例如,OpenSea 前 2.2% 的用户负责其一半以上的交易量。

然而,当项目变得愤世嫉俗,认为主流采用是不可能的时,问题就出现了。在认为加密永远不会超越早期 degen 的心态下,动机就是加速区块链技术的退化,并设计像赌场桌面游戏一样的零和应用程序。因此,我们看到了庞氏经济学、多层次营销计划和金融中令人厌恶的部分。

庞氏骗局有短期的产品市场适应性,因为总会有几千名加密原住民 degen 作为核心群体,他们会在每一个新的闪亮投机应用上赌博。这创造了一种金融工程化的零和金钱游戏文化,一些影响者出现吸引毫无戒心的零售用户购买,只是为了之后抛售。这就是为什么这么多人拼命地在推特上耕种互动并成为影响者,因为只有这样,赌场的赔率才会对他们有利。在赌场中,影响力是一个有利可图的商业模式。

在赌场之外,只迎合 degen 是令不在 degen 泡沫中的任何人反感的。我不怪一般消费者讨厌加密货币和 NFT。他们每次在新闻中听到这些都与贪婪、庞氏骗局和互联网上糟糕的人物有关。设计零和应用程序使更多人不愿进入加密空间和使用链上产品。

我们需要考虑像比特币 ETF 那样增长加密用户基础的方法。比特币 ETF 在这个领域是一股新鲜空气,因为此前无法接触加密货币的数万亿美元退休账户储蓄,终于可以首次接入比特币。

话虽如此,我们应该如何真正实现主流采纳呢?

从赌场中得到的启示

我在十月份遇到了 Steve Wynn,他告诉我他发展酒店和赌场业务的经验。他当时的一个独特见解是专注于赌博以外的体验。拉斯维加斯曾是一个人们只来赌博的地方,几乎没有其他理由停留就离开了。

考虑到如今每个拉斯维加斯赌场都提供音乐会、表演、名厨餐厅、奢侈购物等,这听起来似乎很疯狂。但在 1989 年「The Mirage」开业时,这是一种逆流而行的做法,而它的成功迅速迫使其他赌场投资于高质量的设施和娱乐,不仅仅是赌博。

在 1990 年代,Steve Wynn 在将拉斯维加斯大道从以赌博为中心的目的地转变为世界级的娱乐和休闲目的地方面发挥了重要作用。良好的款待使拉斯维加斯的体验变得不再是零和游戏,并显著增加了每年因各种原因访问拉斯维加斯的游客数量。

显然,加密行业可以从这里学到一个教训。我们需要减少零和桌面游戏,增加更多正和体验。

预测市场就是一个很好的例子。Degens 喜欢预测市场,因为他们喜欢在二元结果事件上投注极端的风险选择,要么赢得所有要么失去所有。就像他们可以在 Meme 币上赌博赢得 10 倍或失去所有资金一样。同时,无数的研究表明,通过消除偏见和引入「股份在游戏中」,预测市场比主流媒体和专家更准确。

使用预测市场的人不必一定要在上面下注,而可以将其作为地缘政治事件的新闻来源,就像人们不需要单独为了赌博而访问拉斯维加斯一样。甚至特朗普现在也经常在 Truth Social 上发布他的 Polymarket 赔率。

还有许多其他例子。使用去中心化的物理基础设施网络 (DePIN) 来实现 WiFi 网状网络或车辆性能数据。使用空投来激励餐厅忠诚度或更好的健身效果。使用 NFT,使即将崭露头角的创作者无需通过好莱坞的守门人。加密 Degens 是所有这些的早期采纳者,但他们为社会带来的价值是正和的。


In this article, the author compiles and edits the editor's notes, which brilliantly discusses the cultural war that the cryptocurrency industry is currently facing, analyzes the two camps of cryptocurrency industry, namely, cryptocomputer school and cryptocasino school, and expounds how this difference is formed. The article is not limited to analyzing the current situation, but also puts forward specific solutions, suggesting that the industry should shift from zero-sum games to creating more positive experience. With the help of successful experience in Las Vegas casino business, the author points out what the cryptocurrency industry can learn, namely Paying attention to the experience other than gambling provides a new perspective and thinking for the future development of cryptocurrency. There is no doubt that for anyone in the cryptocurrency industry, the culture of this industry has undergone major changes in the past year, and a cultural war has begun to emerge among the builders of the crypto community. This war is the opposition between the early purists and the later tourists' crypto-casino faction. I will explain the positions of these two political factions and how we got there. Today's conflict then draws a detailed way forward for the encryption industry to solve its cultural war. People in this camp of encryption computers believe in the ideal of Satoshi Nakamoto, the founder of the industry, that is, to disperse power from corrupt institutions to the people. They tend to be a group of people who entered the encryption industry in the early years, mainly monetary liberals. They were attracted by Bitcoin as a hedge against reckless monetary policy. For these hardcore people, Bitcoin will absorb the Federation. The liquidity sponge with overprinted reserve currency refers to those who firmly support the views of the former US Congressman. His followers are known for their support of the gold standard and criticism of the US Federal Reserve System. These people usually think that the gold standard or similar financial system can provide a more stable and reliable way to store value, especially in the fight against currency depreciation and the monetary policy of the central bank. In this context, Bitcoin is regarded as a liquidity sponge absorbed by the Federal Reserve. In other words, for these people, Bitcoin is a tool against the traditional financial system and central bank policies, especially in their view, these policies may lead to currency depreciation and a group of people in the year of economic instability. I am this generation, mainly technicians. They may not be as ideological as the previous generation, but they are also attracted by encryption as a new computing paradigm. Ethereum shows the possibility of decentralized applications, which makes you not only. It's reading and writing data, but owning the concepts that come with them and the gatekeepers of disintermediating large technology companies and the Internet. Today, these two groups of people represent the silent majority who still believe in Satoshi Nakamoto's vision and are optimistic about the new use cases and products that promote the progress of this field. However, at the same time, they are afraid to say anything negative about the current hot Ponzi scheme hyped by the influencers to avoid being attacked by the online mob, so they remain silent and encrypt the people in this camp. Worldly think that encryption is just a decentralized casino, and hope to keep this state. The purpose of construction is to add more rooms to the casino, that is, to find new creative ways to super-finance everything and speculate, whether using mobile phones to speculate on friends' net assets or using them to speculate. Most of them entered the encryption industry in the late year, from traders' backgrounds and financial backgrounds. They are very outspoken minorities who are good at interactive farming on Twitter. Therefore, They dominate the online discourse and create tension between early purists and later tourists, just as nativists resent immigrants who don't integrate and change their culture. Most of them are still young. My hypothesis is that this is the second-order effect of the zero interest rate policy lasting for ten years and the failure of the traditional financial system to millennials and generations. Young people increasingly feel that they need to get rich quickly to repay student loans and pay for mortgage loans. When people feel that they are always in fierce competition, They will turn to casinos and try to get out of trouble by gambling. How did this happen? Casinos are very useful for guiding the use. This is because they are early adopters, they have risk tolerance and become testers of unconfirmed financial products. It is easy for outsiders to ignore them, but they are the lifeblood of encryption. They are blue-collar workers in the trenches who try every new product themselves. During the cryptocurrency bear market, no new users enter this field, and applications are in trouble and forced to focus on increasing users. The existing strong user base is possible in the short term, because the transaction volume is mainly driven by strong users, for example, the former users are responsible for more than half of the transaction volume. However, when the project becomes cynical and thinks that mainstream adoption is impossible, the problem arises. Under the mentality that encryption will never surpass the early stage, the motivation is to accelerate the degradation of blockchain technology and design zero-sum applications like casino desktop games. Therefore, we have seen the multi level marketing Plan of Ponzi Economics and the financial neutrality. The disgusting part of Ponzi scheme has short-term product market adaptability, because there will always be thousands of encrypted aborigines as the core group who will gamble on every new shiny speculative application, which creates a financial engineering zero-sum money game culture, and some influencers appear to attract unsuspecting retail users to buy just to sell later, which is why so many people desperately cultivate interaction on Twitter and become influencers, because only in this way will the odds of casinos be favorable to them. Influence is a profitable business model in casinos. It is disgusting for anyone who is not in the bubble to cater outside casinos. I don't blame ordinary consumers for hating cryptocurrency and every time they hear it in the news, it is related to greedy Ponzi schemes and bad people on the Internet. Designing zero-sum applications makes more people reluctant to enter the encrypted space and use online products. We need to consider ways to increase the encrypted user base like Bitcoin. Bitcoin is a novelty in this field. Air can finally access Bitcoin for the first time because of the trillions of dollars of retirement account savings that had no access to cryptocurrency before. However, how can we really achieve mainstream adoption? I met him in October and told me his experience in developing hotel and casino business. His unique insight at that time was that Las Vegas was once a place where people only came to gamble and left for almost no other reason. Considering that every Las Vegas casino now provides concerts, performances, famous chefs, restaurants and luxury shopping, it sounds crazy, but it opened in 2008. 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台

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