极客与赌徒:加密货币的文化战争

币圈资讯 阅读:35 2024-04-22 10:13:17 评论:0
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原文作者:RICHARD CHEN 文章编译:Block unicorn

对于任何在这个行业里待了很长时间的加密资深人士,毫无疑问,过去一年行业的文化发生了显著变化。

在早期的纯粹主义者(加密计算机党)和后来的游客(加密赌徒党)之间开始出现一场文化战争,这在加密社区的构建者之间造成了分歧。

我将解释这两个“政党”的立场,以及我们如何走到今天的冲突,然后为加密行业如何解决文化之战提出一个具有细致差异的前进路径。

加密计算机派

这个阵营的人们信奉行业创始人中本聪(Satoshi Nakamoto)的理念,即将权力从腐败机构转移到人民手中的去中心化。

他们往往是早期进入加密行业的人。2013年的这一群体主要是对比特币作为对不负责任货币政策的对冲而感兴趣的硬通货自由派。对于那些坚定支持Ron Paul并热衷于投资黄金的金融投资者来说,比特币被看作是吸收美联储印刷货币所带来的过度流动性的一种工具。简而言之,他们认为比特币可以作为对抗美联储不负责任货币政策的一种避险手段,吸收多余的货币供应。

2017年的这一群体(我的同龄人)主要是技术专家,也许比前一代人更少意识形态,但被加密吸引是因为它代表了一种新的计算范式。以太坊展示了去中心化应用程序(dApp)的可行性,使你现在能够拥有数据而不仅仅是读取或写入。随之而来的是web3的概念,它试图削弱大型科技公司和互联网的守门人的中介作用。

今天,这两个群体都代表了默默无闻的大多数人,他们仍然相信中本聪的愿景,并对推动这一领域发展的新用例和产品感到乐观。然而,与此同时,他们害怕公开批评当前被一些KOL炒作的热门庞氏项目,否则就会遭到键盘战士的网络攻击。因此,他们选择保持沉默。

加密赌场派

这个阵营的人们持怀疑态度,他们认为加密只不过是一个去中心化的赌场,而且希望保持这种状态。他们建设的目的是为赌场增加更多的赌桌,也就是寻找新的创意方式来将一切都超金融化并进行投机,无论是通过手机对朋友的净值进行投机,还是通过Telegram机器人对垃圾币进行投机。

他们往往是在2021年后进入加密行业的人,背景多来自交易和金融领域。这是一个非常善于在Twitter上引起关注的小众群体。因此,他们主导了在线讨论,并在早期纯粹主义者和后来的游客之间制造紧张局势,类似于土著主义者对不同文化不同化的移民感到不满。

他们也往往年龄较小,我的假设是,这是零利率政策(ZIRP)和传统金融系统对千禧一代和Z一代失败的二阶效应。年轻人越来越觉得他们需要迅速致富,以偿还学生贷款并负担得起购房贷款。当人们觉得自己一直陷在压力下,无法摆脱困境时,他们可能会寻求赌场的机会,试图通过赌博来改善自己的处境。

我们是如何走到这一步的?

对于早期项目的启动,赌场非常有用,这是因为“degen(赌徒)”们是早期采用者。他们具有成为未经验证的金融产品的测试人员和承受高风险资产的用户。对于外部人来说,很容易忽视“degen”们,但他们是加密行业生命力的源泉。他们是在战壕中忙碌的蓝领工人,为每个新产品披荆斩棘(充满无数的风险)。

在加密熊市期间,没有新用户进入这个领域。应用程序陷入增加用户数量的停滞状态,被迫专注于现有的“degen”核心用户群体。这在短期内是可以接受的,因为交易量主要由核心用户推动。例如,OpenSea的前2.2%用户负责其一半以上的交易量。

然而,当项目开始怀疑主流采纳是不可能的时候,问题就出现了。持有这种观念认为加密永远不会越过早期“degen(赌徒)”们的鸿沟,激励人们去推动区块链技术的退化,设计像赌场的零和游戏的应用。因此,我们得到庞氏通证经济学,多层次营销计划,以及金融中最令人不悦的部分。

庞氏项目的产品,在短期内具有符合市场的需求、叙事,因为总会有一小部分几千名加密原生的“degen”们,他们会在每个新的光鲜的投机应用上进行赌博。这造成了一种由金融工程打造的零和游戏文化,受影响者通过炒作吸引毫不知情的零售用户入场,只是在之后抛售给他们。这就是为什么有那么多人在Twitter上拼命引起关注,成为影响者,因为只有这样,赌场中的胜算才会朝他们的方向堆叠。在赌场中,影响力是一种赚钱的商业模式。

然而在赌场之外,只迎合“degen”们对于不在“degen”泡泡中的任何人来说都是令人厌恶的。我不怪一般消费者讨厌加密货币和NFT,每当他们在新闻中听到有关它的时候,都与贪婪、庞氏项目和互联网上最糟糕的个性有关。设计零和应用会使更多的人远离加密行业,不愿使用链上产品。

我们需要思考如何扩大加密用户基础,就像比特币ETF所做的那样。比特币ETF是这个领域的一股清新之风,因为之前无法进入加密的数万亿美元的退休账户储蓄现在终于可以首次接入比特币。

说到这一点,我们究竟如何实现主流采纳呢?

前进的道路 

我在十月份遇到了史蒂夫·温(Steve Wynn),他向我讲述了他发展酒店和赌场业务的经历。当时他提出的一个独特见解是专注于赌博之外的体验,拉斯维加斯曾经是人们只来赌博然后离开的地方,几乎没有其他理由留下。

尽管如今每个拉斯维加斯赌场都提供音乐会、演出、名人厨师餐厅、奢侈购物等已经是家常便饭,但在1989年Mirage赌场开业时,这听起来是疯狂的,而它的成功迅速促使其他赌场投资于更高质量的设施和超越赌博的娱乐。

在上世纪90年代,在将拉斯维加斯大道从以赌博为主的目的地转变为世界一流的娱乐休闲胜地中发挥了重要作用。良好的招待使拉斯维加斯的体验变得不那么零和,并为每年因各种原因访问拉斯维加斯的游客数量大幅增长。

显然,这对于加密行业是一个值得学习的教训。我们需要更少的零和游戏,更多的正和经验。

其中一个很好的例子是预测市场。degen们喜欢预测市场,因为他们喜欢押注于要么赢、要么输的结果事件,就像他们可以在赌博Memecoin上要么赚取10倍的利润,要么失去所有的钱一样。与此同时,无数研究表明,通过消除偏见和引入“利害关系”的概念,预测市场要比主流媒体和专家更准确。

使用预测市场的人不一定需要在上面下注,而可以将其作为地缘政治事件的新闻来源,就像人们不需要只为了赌博而访问拉斯维加斯一样。甚至特朗普现在定期在Truth Social上发布他在Polymarket上的赔率。

还有许多其他例子。例如,使用去中心化的物理基础设施网络(DePIN)来构建WiFi网格网络或车辆性能数据。使用空投来激励餐厅忠诚度或提高健身水平。使用NFT,使新兴创作者无需通过好莱坞的守门人就能进入市场。加密degen们是所有这些领域的早期采用者,但他们为社会带来的价值是正和的。

有一句话说创业公司更容易死于自杀而不是他杀。对于像加密这样的创业行业来说,这也是真的——degen文化慢慢地自我毁灭,人们离开这个行业,比Gary Gensler或Elizabeth Warren禁止加密更有可能导致其死亡。投机始终是加密文化的一部分,否认(加密文化中存在的)投机成分是一种非常幼稚的看法。但我们不应该加速堕落的金钱游戏,而是利用degen来推动新的正和用例,将更多的人引入这个行业。


For any encryption veteran who has been in this industry for a long time, there is no doubt that the culture of the industry has changed significantly in the past year. A cultural war began to appear between the early purist encryption computer party and the later tourist encryption gambler party, which caused differences between the builders of the encryption community. I will explain the positions of these two parties and how we got to today's conflict, and then propose a solution to the cultural war for the encryption industry. There are subtle differences in the way forward. The people in this camp believe in the idea of Satoshi Nakamoto, the founder of the industry, that is, the decentralization of power from corrupt institutions to the hands of the people. They are often the early people who entered the encryption industry. This group was mainly interested in Bitcoin as a hedge against irresponsible monetary policy. For those financial investors who firmly support and are keen on investing in gold, Bitcoin is regarded as absorbing the printed currency of the Federal Reserve. In short, they think that bitcoin can be used as a hedge against the irresponsible monetary policy of the Federal Reserve to absorb the surplus money supply. My peers are mainly technical experts, perhaps less ideological than the previous generation, but they are attracted by encryption because it represents a new computing paradigm. Ethereum shows the feasibility of decentralized applications, so that you can now have data instead of just reading or writing. The concept of "yes" is that it tries to weaken the intermediary role of large-scale technology companies and the gatekeepers of the Internet. Today, these two groups represent the unknown majority. They still believe in Satoshi Nakamoto's vision and are optimistic about the new use cases and products that promote the development of this field. However, at the same time, they are afraid to publicly criticize the popular Ponzi project that is currently being hyped by some people, otherwise they will be attacked by keyboard fighters. Therefore, they choose to remain silent and encrypt people in this camp who are skeptical. They think that encryption is just a decentralized casino, and they want to keep it this way. The purpose of their construction is to add more gambling tables to the casino, that is, to find new creative ways to make everything super-financial and speculate, whether it is through mobile phones to speculate on friends' net worth or through robots to speculate on junk money. They often enter the encryption industry years later, and their backgrounds are mostly from the trading and financial fields. This is a minority group that is very good at attracting attention in the world. Therefore, they dominate the online discussion and create tension between early purists and later tourists, similar to aborigines who are dissatisfied with immigrants with different cultures, and they are often young. My hypothesis is that this is the second-order effect of zero interest rate policy and traditional financial system on the failure of millennials and generations. Young people increasingly feel that they need to get rich quickly to repay student loans and afford housing loans. When people feel that they have been under pressure, they can't get rid of it. When they are in trouble, they may seek opportunities in casinos and try to improve their situation through gambling. How did we get to this point is very useful for starting casinos in early projects? This is because gamblers are early adopters, who have become testers of unproven financial products and users who bear high-risk assets. It is easy for outsiders to ignore them, but they are the source of vitality in the encryption industry. They are blue-collar workers who are busy in the trenches, rushing through difficulties for every new product. There are countless risks. During the bear market of encryption, no new users enter this field, and the application is forced to focus on the existing core users. This is acceptable in the short term, because the transaction volume is mainly driven by the core users, for example, the former users are responsible for more than half of the transaction volume. However, when the project begins to doubt that mainstream adoption is impossible, the problem arises. It is believed that encryption will never cross the gap of early gamblers to inspire people. To promote the degradation of blockchain technology and design the application of zero-sum games like casinos, so we get the Ponzi Pass Economics multi level marketing Plan and the most unpleasant part of finance. In the short term, the products of Ponzi Project have a narrative that meets the needs of the market, because there will always be a small number of thousands of encrypted native users who will gamble on every new shiny speculative application, which has created a zero-sum game culture created by financial engineering, and the affected people will be attracted by speculation without knowing it. Some retail users enter the casino only to be sold to them afterwards, which is why so many people try their best to attract attention and become influencers, because only in this way will the odds of winning in the casino stack in their direction. Influence in the casino is a profitable business model, but it is disgusting for anyone who is not in the bubble to cater to them outside the casino. I don't blame ordinary consumers for hating cryptocurrency and being associated with greedy Ponzi projects and whenever they hear about it in the news. The worst personality on the Internet is that designing zero-sum applications will keep more people away from the encryption industry and unwilling to use products on the chain. We need to think about how to expand the user base of encryption, just as Bitcoin has done. Bitcoin is a fresh wind in this field, because it was impossible to access the trillions of dollars of retirement accounts encrypted before, and now it is finally possible to access Bitcoin for the first time. Speaking of this, how on earth can we achieve mainstream adoption? I met Steve Winta in October. He told me about his experience in developing hotel and casino business. At that time, he put forward a unique insight that he focused on experiences other than gambling. Las Vegas used to be a place where people only came to gamble and then left. There was almost no other reason to stay. Although it is common practice for every Las Vegas casino to provide concerts, performances, celebrity chefs, restaurants and luxury shopping, it sounded crazy when the casino opened in, and its success quickly prompted other casinos to invest in higher-quality facilities and shopping. Entertainment beyond gambling played an important role in transforming Las Vegas Boulevard from a gambling destination into a world-class entertainment and leisure resort in the last century. Good hospitality made the experience of Las Vegas less zero-sum and the number of tourists visiting Las Vegas for various reasons increased greatly every year. Obviously, this is a lesson worth learning for the encryption industry. We need less zero-sum games and more positive and negative experiences. A good example is the prediction market, because they like to bet on the outcome of winning or losing, just like they can gamble. 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台

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