为什么人们仍然认为比特币会消亡

币圈资讯 阅读:29 2024-04-22 10:08:57 评论:0
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作者:Michael J. Casey,coindesk 翻译:善欧巴,比特币买卖交易网

比特币最引人注目的特性之一就是它的不可阻挡性。那么,为什么最近一项调查中有如此多的人认为它会在 2024 年失败呢?

想感受 “普通人” 和加密货币狂热者之间理解鸿沟的实证吗?看看上周德意志银行对 2000 名零售客户进行的调查结果吧。

最让人震惊的发现居然不是三分之一受访者认为比特币将在年底跌破 2 万美元。要知道,这可是它当前价格的一半还不到,更是远低于安东尼·斯卡拉穆奇 17 万美元的预测目标。斯卡拉穆奇的预测和其他看涨观点均认为,今年 4 月的下一次减半后,ETF 推动需求将会撞上日益稀少的供给,从而推高价格。

真正让我坐不住的是一个关于比特币存亡的问题:认为比特币将在未来几年消失的人比相信它会一直存在的人还多。

了解我的读者群体,我确信你们中的不少人此刻一定在摇头,脑海中闪现着 “比特币已死” 的老梗。正如这个记录比特币死亡报道的网站俏皮地指出,自 2010 年以来,比特币已经 “死亡” 了 475 次。

然而,真正的笑话是我们自己。经过这么多年,无数次反事实预言证明了唱衰派们的愚蠢,而且尽管比特币在后金融危机时代取得了 13 年来最佳投资回报的骄人成绩,人们仍然认为它即将消失,这无疑证明了这个行业在宣传和沟通上存在巨大失误。我们并没有真正解释清楚比特币是什么,没有让 “普通人” 真正理解它。

误解

我承认,我也跟许多人一样,对于普通大众对比特币的误解感到沮丧和烦躁。这种心态只会拉大理解的鸿沟,让我们更难取得像 “普通人” 阿明那样的信任,也很难帮助他理解这个复杂陌生的概念。

看到 Deutsche 调查结果时,我下意识的反应是:拜托,真的吗?比特币今年就要死了?它到底会怎么消失?谁来关掉它?比特币是开源代码,没有任何个人或公司拥有关闭它的开关。难道你们的意思是,所有参与的人会集体行动让它消失?你们真的认为成千上万投入时间和精力在这上面的人——矿工、开发者、投资者、用户——他们之间根本无法协调,却能同时集体放弃它?嗯,好吧...

比特币死亡论之所以让人恼火,是因为它直接与比特币核心价值主张——无法被关闭——相矛盾。在一个任何东西都可能被政府、银行、网络平台或黑客控制的世界里,不可阻挡是一个强大的概念。我们拥有了一个不可思议的发明:一个基于数学的、不可篡改的价值转移系统,每十分钟钟表滴答一声,就自动产生一个新的交易记录块,完全不受任何干扰或审查。人们真的应该对它感到惊叹。

但事实并非如此。“阿明”对此不以为然

这可能是因为这个概念太抽象了。对他来说,它有什么切实的好处?他有美元,它们或多或少地满足了需求。虽然他可能对政府不满意,但他接受了它的货币体系。思考一个不受审查、非政治化的价值交换形式如何能够在全球范围内超越国家依赖系统,支撑人类主权,对他日常的生活来说毫无意义。

不信任

“普通人” 阿明需要的是信任,而遗憾的是,他并没有从加密货币社区那里得到这一点。

如果有人要向他推销他无法理解的东西,阿明会对信任这个人设定更高的标准。当与这个东西相关的人的行为证实了他的偏见时,他会得出结论:他们——以及他们推销的东西——不可信。

所有的噪音、吹嘘、“飞上月球”和“继续做你的穷鬼吧”的MEME、炫富、痴迷……无论这些行为是否合理,都让阿明更难相信比特币。

我们需要的是简单、同理的沟通。


One of the most striking features of Bitcoin is its unstoppable nature. So why do so many people in a recent survey think that it will fail in 2008? Want to feel the evidence of the understanding gap between ordinary people and cryptocurrency enthusiasts? Look at the results of a survey conducted by Deutsche Bank last week on 100 retail customers. The most shocking discovery is not that one-third of the respondents think that Bitcoin will fall below $10,000 by the end of the year. You know, this is it. The current price is less than half of Anthony Scala Muchevan's forecast target of US$. Scaramucci's forecast and other bullish views all think that after the next halving this month, the demand will hit the increasingly scarce supply, thus pushing up the price. What really makes me sit still is a question about the survival of Bitcoin. People who think that Bitcoin will disappear in the next few years know more about my readers than those who believe that it will always exist. I'm sure many of you will know my readers at this moment. Old terrier, who shakes his head, flashes that Bitcoin is dead. Just as this website that records the death report of Bitcoin wittily points out that Bitcoin has died twice since 2008, the real joke is that we have proved the stupidity of the bad guys after so many years of counter-factual predictions, and even though Bitcoin has achieved the best return on investment in the post-financial crisis era, people still think that it is about to disappear, which undoubtedly proves that there is a huge loss in propaganda and communication in this industry. By mistake, we didn't really explain what bitcoin is, and didn't make ordinary people really understand it. I admit that I am as frustrated and upset as many people about the misunderstanding of bitcoin. This mentality will only widen the gap of understanding, making it more difficult for us to gain the trust like Amin, an ordinary person, and it is also difficult to help him understand this complex and unfamiliar concept. When I saw the survey results, my subconscious reaction was, please really? Bitcoin will die this year. How will it disappear? Who will turn it off? It's open source code, and no individual or company has the switch to turn it off. Do you mean that all the people involved will take collective action to make it disappear? Do you really think that thousands of people who have invested their time and energy in it, miners, developers, investors and users, can't coordinate with each other at all, but they can collectively give it up at the same time? Well, the death theory of Bitcoin is annoying because it directly contradicts the core value proposition of Bitcoin that it can't be turned off. Irresistible is a powerful concept in the world controlled by government, bank, network platform or hackers. We have an incredible invention, an unchangeable value transfer system based on mathematics, which automatically generates a new transaction record block every ten minutes without any interference or censorship. People really should be amazed at it, but it is not the case. This may be because the concept is too abstract. What practical benefits does it have for him? Although he may not be satisfied with the government, he accepted its monetary system and thought about how an uncensored and unpoliticized form of value exchange can transcend the state-dependent system and support human sovereignty on a global scale, which is meaningless to his daily life. It is a pity that he did not get this from the cryptocurrency community. If someone wants to sell him something he can't understand, Amin will. Set a higher standard for trusting this person. When the behavior of people related to this thing confirms his prejudice, he will come to the conclusion that they and what they sell are not credible. All the noise bragging about flying to the moon and continuing to be your poor man's obsession with showing off wealth, whether these behaviors are reasonable or not, makes it harder for Amin to believe in Bitcoin. What we need is simple and similar communication. 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台

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