华尔街的新资产类别:灰度能否挺过比特币 ETF 时代?

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作者:Andrew Singer,cointelegraph 翻译:善欧巴,比特币买卖交易网

多年来,寻求比特币投资的机构都选择了 Grayscale Investments,该公司管理的比特币资产 (AUM) 超过 280 亿美元,远远超过其最接近的竞争对手数倍。

1 月 11 日,一切都发生了变化,10 家公司推出了现货比特币ETF,最终获得美国证券交易委员会(SEC)批准后,首次在美国推出交易所交易基金(ETF)。这些公司包括 Grayscale,该公司将已有十年历史的 Grayscale 比特币信托基金 (GBTC) 转换为 ETF。

1 月 11 日是一个非凡的时刻,不仅对加密货币世界来说,对华尔街来说也是如此。Strategas Asset Management ETF 策略师兼董事总经理托德·索恩 (Todd Sohn) 告诉 Cointelegraph:“很少有新的资产类别进入 ETF 词典。” “1993 年我们有股票,2002 年有债券,2004 年有黄金。”

但除了向散户投资者开放相对原始的资产类别外,1 月 11 日还引发了一场竞赛。哪些新 ETF 可能会流行?

华尔街巨头贝莱德和富达投资?或者也许是更专注于加密货币的资产管理公司,例如 ARK Invest 或 Bitwise,它们在前两周的资产管理规模都超过了 5 亿美元?或者也许是现有的灰度,长期以来没有受到挑战?为推出 ETF,它将每年 2% 的管理费降低至 1.5%。

Sohn 指出,就 GBTC 与其他产品而言,它有一个巨大的开端,“但如果我们将前两周视为任何迹象,那就是 BlackRock 和 Fidelity 等发行人对该产品非常认真。”

灰度在推出后的前两周经历了大规模资金外流,但即使在赎回损失 50 亿美元之后,其 1 月 26 日仍保留了 202 亿美元的资产管理规模。相比之下,截至周五收盘,贝莱德约为 20 亿美元,富达则为 17.5 亿美元。 ,其他 ETF 则更靠后。

尽管如此,GBTC 是否有可能在未来一年保持对 TradFi 资产管理公司的巨大领先优势?

长远来看,1月11日会否被视为某种权力的更替,标志着区块链初创公司和加密货币公司被华尔街巨鲸蚕食的开端?

行业后遗症

比特币价格在其现货 ETF 首次亮相后的几天内下跌了近 20%,这引发了人们的疑问,加密货币行业是否对新投资工具的期望过高。

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例如,1 月 23 日,摩根大通分析师表示,“比特币 ETF 中推动生态系统走出寒冬的催化剂将会令市场参与者失望。”

现货比特币 ETF 的要求是否过高?

“我只想记住,在这些基金推出之前,基础比特币已经大幅上涨,”索恩说,“所以暂停并不令人意外。” 到 1 月 29 日,比特币已经有所回升,下午突破 43,000 美元。

“(2004 年)黄金在短时间内横盘整理,然后再次上涨,”Sohn 补充道。

事实上,从 2004 年 11 月 18 日开始,第一只黄金 ETF 在头三天内就聚集了超过 10 亿美元的资产,“这奠定了其历史上最快的 ETF 吸引这一水平资产的地位” 。机构投资者。

SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)“彻底改变了黄金交易”,三年后,其资产管理规模达到 100 亿美元。

但Sohn的观点是:GLD推出后的上半年,从2004年10月到2005年4月,其在纽约证券交易所的价格几乎没有变化。

打压BTC价格?

回到目前,GBTC 和其他 9 只 ETF 的整体资金流出已经在减少。1 月 26 日,他们的检测结果呈阳性,这是 7 天内的首次检测结果。

宏利金融顾问公司金融服务助理副总裁 Peter Sin Guili 告诉 Cointelegraph:“投资者获利了结导致的 GBTC 抛售压力/资金流出最终将放缓,因为基金抛售会随着时间的推移而减弱。”

Guili 补充道,一些径流来自一次性事件,例如“FTX 破产财产出售了 2200 万股 GBTC——价值 10 亿美元的资金流出”。

加密货币做市商 Keyrock 亚太区业务发展主管 Justin d'Anethan 告诉 Cointelegraph:“我对 GBTC 的流出和来自 Grayscale 的转移并不担心。” “许多人会认为这些对价格来说是负面的[新闻],但我认为情况不一定如此。”

d'Anethan 表示,这主要是由于 GBTC 的管理费比大多数其他新的现货比特币电子转帐要高出几个因素,人们“退出前者,只是转向后者”。

毕竟,基础产品的结构或价值没有改变。目前,在贝莱德“商店”或富达投资“商店”购买 BTC 比从 GBTC 购买更便宜。

“关键问题——我们不知道答案——是资产管理规模还会剩下多少,”Sohn 补充道。“灰度降低 1.5% 的费用是否存在痛点?这可能会对谁担任 AUM 之王产生巨大影响。”

其他人会超越灰度吗?

值得注意的是,推出两周后,Grayscale“仍然是最大的 AUM 现货比特币 ETF,并且在可预见的未来可能会保持这一地位,”d'Anethan 说。他表示,许多持有人对灰度的设置、内部尽职调查和业务关系仍然感到满意。

“他们(灰度)拥有巨大的先发优势,”圣克拉拉大学利维商学院金融学副教授 Seoyoung Kim 告诉 Cointelegraph。“此外,转换也是有成本的。尽管费用高昂,人们仍然坚持使用灰度的原因之一是,如果他们转换,“他们可能”会引发纳税义务。

“从长远来看,其他 ETF 提供商可能最终会超越 Grayscale,”d'Anethan 表示,“但值得记住的是,就目前而言,领先优势绝对是巨大的,其资产管理规模比最接近的竞争对手多至少 150 亿美元。”

尽管如此,正如彭博社分析师 Eric Balchunas 在最近的一篇文章中指出的那样,过去 10 年的更大趋势有利于低费用、被动管理的指数股票 ETF,而牺牲了主动管理、高费用的股票共同基金。可以说,这使得其他 9 个比特币 ETF 比费用较高的 GBTC 更符合当前投资者的偏好。

Kim 还暗示灰度存在收费问题。“灰度的资金流出将创造机会,”她告诉 Cointelegraph,“特别是因为贝莱德、富达和其他公司将收取低得多的费用。” 

与此同时,Grayscale 在 ETF 推出后仍收取 150 个基点 (bps) 的费用。相比之下,贝莱德对其 ETF 收取 12.5 个基点的费用,而富达则在 8 月 1 日之前完全免除其费用。

“配置 ETF 的投资者非常注重成本。每个基点都很重要,”Bitwise 高级加密货币研究分析师 Ryan Rasmussen 告诉 Cointelegraph。“这为比特币 ETF 现货大战中出现新的低成本领导者留下了空间。”

NFTY Labs 首席执行官 James Lawrence 告诉 Cointelegraph:“我相信 BlackRock 和 Fidelity 等规模较大的 ETF 将在知名度和交易量方面超越 GBTC。”

他们的“知名品牌”和规模给他们带来了优势,“尤其是富达提供托管服务。我预计市场主导地位将迅速转向这些传统金融巨头。”

Guili 认为,“贝莱德的 IBIT 将是 GBTC 最接近的竞争对手”,不过他并没有排除富达的可能性,特别是其路径设定托管解决方案,他认为这是“一个强大的卖点”。

Bitwise 也可能具有竞争力,因为它主要专注于加密产品,并且“在加密领域拥有加密货币早期采用者的巨大支持基础和品牌认知度”。

权力交接

如果黑石、富达和其他华尔街公司最终超越灰度比特币信托,这是否会标志着一种权力更迭,即传统金融巨头吞并或压倒加密初创公司或专注于加密的企业?

Sohn 表示:“我认为,行业的一方会使用传统金融解决方案,因为他们对 ETF 包装和相关的托管保障感到满意,或许他们的母公司也希望如此。”

“但加密行业的初创公司和创新者永远都是推动行业向前发展的力量,”他补充道,“新兴企业会带来新的视角和解决方案,很可能有一部分行业参与者会选择这条道路,而不是通过 ETF/传统金融渠道。”

Lawrence 认为:“传统金融不会完全吞并加密初创公司。” 大型公司通常风险厌恶,其监管和合规审批需要时间。他认为,许多加密初创公司,尤其是去中心化金融子领域,不太可能成为大型传统金融公司的目标。

Guili 也表示同意,加密货币的未来发展将由像黑石和富达这样的巨型传统金融公司和资产管理公司主导,“但较小的加密初创公司仍然扮演着重要角色——成为加密和区块链创新的基石,并为细分市场提供替代产品解决方案。”

加密货币发展的“里程碑”?

要理解这一切对加密货币的采用意味着什么,可能需要一些时间。现货市场 ETF 仍然只是拼图中的一块,其他关键部分仍然缺失。d’Anethan 表示:“虽然新的 ETF 使得接触加密货币变得更容易,但由于监管和税收方面的限制,实际交易‘实物’比特币仍然非常困难。”

也就是说,新的现货市场 ETF“代表了加密货币认知方面的一个巨大里程碑”,d'Anethan 继续说道。许多传统做市商和基金已经对加密货币有了一定的投资,“但现在你可能会看到其他大型资产管理公司和养老基金将一些资产管理规模分配给与加密货币挂钩的 ETF,这将提振空间和价格。”

Sohn 补充道:“考虑到加密货币的受欢迎程度,即使存在争议,成为解决方案提供者对發行商来说都是一个全员参与的举措。”

分析师 Rasmussen 将 1 月 11 日描述为“登月时刻”,称“世界上最大的金融机构和美国政府对一个新的资产类别给予了认可,这并不常见。”

“但市场足够大,足以让加密原住民企业和传统金融机构共存。”


Over the years, institutions seeking bitcoin investment have chosen this company, which manages more than US$ 100 million in bitcoin assets, far exceeding its nearest competitor several times. Everything has changed since the company launched the spot bitcoin and finally got the approval of the US Securities and Exchange Commission, and launched the exchange-traded fund in the United States for the first time. It is an extraordinary moment for these companies, including this company, to convert the ten-year-old bitcoin trust fund into the month. Todd Thorne, a strategist and managing director, told us that few new asset classes have entered the dictionary year. We have stocks, bonds and gold in the year, but in addition to opening relatively primitive asset classes to retail investors, a competition was triggered on March, which new asset management companies might be popular with Wall Street giants BlackRock and Fidelity, or perhaps more focused on cryptocurrencies, such as their asset management scale in the first two weeks. Both have exceeded billion dollars, or perhaps the existing gray scale has not been challenged for a long time. In order to launch it, the annual management fee has been reduced to point out that it has made a huge start compared with other products, but if we take the first two weeks as any sign, it is the same as that when the issuer is very serious about the product, the gray scale experienced a large-scale capital outflow in the first two weeks after the launch, but even after the redemption loss of billion dollars, it still retained the asset management scale of billion dollars, compared with the closing date of Friday. BlackRock is about $100 million, Fidelity is about $100 million, and others are even more backward. However, is it possible to maintain a huge leading position in asset management companies in the coming year? In the long run, will May be regarded as a change of power, marking the beginning of blockchain startups and cryptocurrency companies being eaten by Wall Street whales? The industry sequela, bitcoin prices, has fallen nearly within a few days after its spot debut, which has aroused people's doubts about whether cryptocurrency industry has expected new investment tools. For example, JPMorgan Chase analysts said that the catalyst in bitcoin to push the ecosystem out of the cold winter will disappoint market participants. Is the demand for spot bitcoin too high? I just want to remember that the basic bitcoin has risen sharply before the launch of these funds. Thorne said, so it is not surprising to suspend it. In the afternoon, bitcoin has rebounded, breaking through the US dollar, and then gold rose sideways in a short time, adding that in fact, the first gold has been in the first three days since June. It has accumulated assets of more than US$ 100 million, which has established the fastest position in its history to attract this level of assets. Institutional investors have completely changed the gold trading. After three years, its asset management scale has reached US$ 100 million. However, the view is that in the first half of the year after the launch, its price on the new york Stock Exchange has hardly changed from September to September, suppressing the price to the present and other overall capital outflows. Their test results are positive on May, which is the first test result in a day. The assistant vice president of the company's financial services told investors that the selling pressure caused by profit-taking will eventually slow down, because the fund selling will weaken over time, adding that some runoff comes from one-off events, such as the sale of 10 thousand shares of bankrupt property and the outflow of funds worth hundreds of millions of dollars. The business development director of cryptocurrency market maker Asia-Pacific told me that many people would think these are negative news for the price, but I don't think this is necessarily the case. It is said that this is mainly because the management fee is higher than most other new spot bitcoin electronic transfers due to several factors. People quit the former and just turned to the latter. After all, the structure or value of the basic products has not changed. At present, it is cheaper to buy from BlackRock stores or Fidelity investment stores. The key question is that we don't know the answer is how much the asset management scale will remain. Is there any pain point in the cost of reducing the gray level? This may have a huge impact on who will be the king, and others will surpass the gray level. It is worth noting that it is still the largest spot bitcoin two weeks after its launch, and it may maintain this position in the foreseeable future. He said that many holders are still satisfied with the internal due diligence and business relationship of the gray scale, and their gray scale has a huge first-Mover advantage. An associate professor of finance at Levy Business School of Santa Clara University told me that conversion is also costly, and one of the reasons why people still insist on using gray scale is that if they convert, they may trigger. In the long run, other providers may eventually surpass the expression, but it is worth remembering that at present, the leading edge is absolutely huge, and its asset management scale is at least $100 million more than that of the nearest competitor. Nevertheless, as pointed out by Bloomberg analysts in a recent article, the greater trend in the past year is in favor of low-cost passively managed index stocks at the expense of actively managing high-cost stock mutual funds, which can be said to make other bitcoins more expensive. It is more in line with the preference of current investors, and it also implies that there is a charge problem in the gray scale, and the outflow of funds from the gray scale will create opportunities, she told me, especially because BlackRock Fidelity and other companies will charge much lower fees, and at the same time, they will still charge a fee of basis points after the launch. In contrast, BlackRock will charge a fee of basis points for it, while Fidelity will completely waive its fee allocation before June. Investors pay great attention to the cost, and every basis point is very important. Senior cryptocurrency research analysts told that this is bitcoin now. In the war of goods, new low-cost leaders have left room. The CEO told me that he believes that large-scale companies such as Heping will surpass their well-known brands and scale in terms of popularity and transaction volume, which has brought them advantages, especially Fidelity's hosting services. I expect that the market dominance will rapidly shift to these traditional financial giants, who think BlackRock will be the closest competitor, but he has not ruled out the possibility of Fidelity, especially its path setting hosting solution. A strong selling point may also be competitive, because it mainly focuses on encryption products and has a huge support base and brand awareness of early adopters of cryptocurrency in the encryption field. If Blackstone Fidelity and other Wall Street companies finally surpass the gray bitcoin trust, will this mark a power change, that is, traditional financial giants will annex or overwhelm encryption start-ups or enterprises focusing on encryption, saying that I think one side of the industry will use traditional financial solutions because they are satisfied with the packaging and related custody protection, and perhaps their parent companies hope so, but the start-ups in the encryption industry will. 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台

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