比特币挖矿业：2024年预测

For bitcoin miners, 2008 is definitely a salvation gift, which provides a necessary second opportunity for an industry weakened by the downturn in the market in 2008. But with the arrival, miners are beginning to face another huge challenge, that is, halving bitcoin for the fourth time will reduce the block subsidy of bitcoin from to, which means that miners' income will be reduced. The halving of bitcoin in the past year will undoubtedly leave an indelible mark in the current bitcoin mining market. Although the third halving is not the direct fuse, the ban on bitcoin mining implemented by China in and the subsequent large-scale migration of computing power have created conditions for the formation of a mining market that is completely different from the second halving. We believe that the fourth halving will bring greater changes and may be accompanied by the redistribution of bitcoin computing power to new geographical areas. For 2008 and the next few years, we roughly predict that the distribution of bitcoin computing power will be more global in North America. The dominant position of computing power will be weakened. During the second halving period, China dominated the computing power share of Bitcoin network, and it was the last power at the peak. After the ban on bitcoin mining was implemented in China, the balance of power shifted to North America. From the summer of 2008 to now, the United States and Canada jointly occupied about the global computing power share, and it is estimated that the share of North America in the global computing power share has reached its peak and will gradually decrease after halving in June, because the profits of miners will be compressed, and they will continue to look for more. Cheap electricity, South America, Africa and other undeveloped areas will usher in significant growth opportunities, and the retail custody service industry will suffer a heavy blow. In North America and other places, due to the low mining profits, the retail custody service industry will go into a downturn. The average all-inclusive custody fee in the United States is US$ kWh, and that in Canada is US$ kWh. The average all-inclusive rates in the fourth quarter of 2008 are US$ kWh and US$ kWh respectively. Figure 2 shows the average custody in Canada. Annual Cost Figure 3 Average Custody Cost of States in the United States Every year, considering the mining economy that has been halved, miners with average or higher custody costs are likely to be unable to maintain profits, which means that only those miners with favorable rates can survive in 2008, which will lead to more mergers and acquisitions in 2008 and 2008 under the environment of reduced computing power prices. In fact, the prelude has been played in 2008, when computing power prices plummeted and reached the lowest level in history. One of bitcoin's largest custody service providers declared bankruptcy and liquidation, and other mining enterprises sold assets. Figure 4: Overview of assets sale and purchase activities of major listed mining enterprises. In the financial difficulties of 2008, we did not see many assets purchase and acquisition activities, but it witnessed the largest merger in bitcoin mining history and the expected level of assets acquisition activities in 2008. Inscriptions and other block space utilization activities will continue to increase transaction costs and income. The alternative use of bitcoin will make the transaction cost level equal to or higher than the average level in 2008. The biggest dark horse in 2008 entered the market behind the new technical standard ordinal number and inscription of bitcoin based on non-homogeneous tokens. This new method of creating digital works of art and artifacts on bitcoin makes the transaction cost an important source of mining income. In fact, the total transaction cost of bitcoin last year was only the second last in the history of bitcoin, and the miners earned the transaction cost of US dollars in 2008, second only to the record of 2008. The ratio of the recorded annual transaction cost in US dollars to the block reward is only Figure 5. The inscription activity generated a transaction cost of US$ billion from June to the end of the year. Miners earned US$ billion in the fourth quarter of 2008, accounting for the total cost. In addition, the income of miners in the fourth quarter of 2008 was US$ billion in the total transaction cost reward. If Bitcoin continues to rise this year, it is expected that the transaction volume of inscription activity will continue to increase in 2008 or the price premium of Bitcoin mining stocks will be lost. Historically, investors have used bitcoin mining stocks as a high game to trade bitcoin, not only as substitutes for bitcoin, but also as assets that can generate excess returns when bitcoin rises. According to the chart below, bitcoin mining stocks show their correlation trend in bull market or bear market. In bear market, the fluctuation of stock price is more correlated with the daily fluctuation of currency price. In bull market, because of the strong correlation between stocks and bitcoin, they are stronger than bitcoin. The upward return traders can better grasp the return income by observing the closer correlation between bitcoin miners and the daily fluctuation of bitcoin spot price. When this trend rises, bitcoin miners are turning to a stronger return period. Figure 6 Comparison of bitcoin coefficients of listed mining enterprises. In view of the recent approval of various bitcoins, it is expected that bitcoin mining stocks will lose some investment premium as a substitute for bitcoin, because investors can now gain income exposure directly through various bitcoins. Investors may still regard them as high tools to expose bitcoin prices, but may reduce their price premium. 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台

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