入场10万U 五位交易员教你如何达成“1亿小目标”

币圈资讯 阅读:36 2024-04-22 09:55:11 评论:0
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ETF获批、美联储即将降息、BTC即将减半、美国大选将至;再加上Solana崛起,以太坊坎昆升级将完成、以太坊现货ETF可能获批。种种迹象预示着,加密行业2024年的潜力,还远远没有发挥。

牛市降临。无论从业者还是投资者,都期待在本轮牛市中有所收获。财富密码在哪?怎样进行投资?越早对这两个问题有所认识,才能越早做好准备,应对变化的市场。

白露会客厅今日荐读:Followin年度X Space,邀请5位研究员:张潇雨,知名对冲基金管理人;Jason陈剑;前Amber研究院Haotian;中本蒜;BTCdayu,进行投资实战经验总结和分享。

Q1:2023年最满意的一笔币圈投资是什么?

张潇雨:2023年比较成功的一笔投资是ORDI。最初进入时价格在3-6U之间。

讲ORDI,一方面是赚到钱,另一方面我认为它是我投资风格、方式的突破。

我在币圈一开始不会投资特别早期的项目,因为看不清楚它是不是真靠谱,能跑出来。在币圈,项目没有特别强的产品概念,强现金流预期支撑。

用传统金融世界的解释,几U的ORDI还在PreA轮、天使轮。此时很难判断它能否长久?趋势是否成立?流量是否能持续在?

我之所以投,一是23年风险偏好确实高一些。另外,我相信Crypto还是要敢于投相对早期的项目,尤其是新资产、新赛道、新趋势出来的时候。

不仅仅是敢投,还有一个程度问题。看着它涨得越来越高,价值越来高,我有追加投资。中间拉高后跌至46美元时卖掉一部分,后来涨回50多时又追加回来。总之,我做了很多以前不会去做的操作。心理、心态层面有些突破。

Haotian:我比较满意公链赛道的Solana,抄了个底。

为什么抄底?上一轮公链竞争都说要杀死以太坊。这一轮的叙事是谁会成为以太坊之外的补充,实现以太坊做不到的性能,吸引以太坊生态。

从这个逻辑去研究,看到Solana有机会。当时Solana因SBF和链宕机表现出各种不给力,但研究后发现,技术底层上因为它支持高并发,性能其实是占优的,接近Web2的能力,能给Crypto产业提供基础设施服务。它每年举办各种黑客松,开发者活跃,创始人又有各方面背景。价格又低。所以我认为有点机会。

还有就是Metis。我当时认为,Layer2四大天王生态搞得一塌糊涂,技术上又没有什么进步,停滞了,尤其是去中心化排序器这块。我发现不是技术不行,而是它们不愿意搞。他们靠排序器使得自己的权力达到巅峰,不舍得放下。这时,我认为肯定有项目会在这一点上挑战他们。Metias叫人眼前一亮,正儿八经做技术。成功抄了个底。

所以,我是从叙事、商业、生态卡位等角度切入去投资。

中本蒜:我讲自己重仓SATS和RATS的逻辑。

往往牛市里币的涨幅会很夸张,爆发性比较强的币,倍数不会只有一点点。在币非常早期阶段买固然很好。但如果你后知后觉,它涨起来后也不用觉得可惜,你完全可以吃它的中后段。你需要考虑:

(i)非常热门的赛道;(ii)一定要是跑出来的白马;(iii)等一个技术面比较好的入场时机;(iv)吃进去下一波涨幅。

这不是重点,我想表达一个观点。很多新人,听到最多的是暴富故事,一笔投资收获巨大收益,以为币圈就要这么赚钱,这是不对的。炒币暴富不是由某一次暴赚的交易决定的,而是无数次的交易共同决定。一些合约型选手肯定有高光时刻,但最后可能还是没怎么赚到钱。我建议:

(i)很多散户非常关心某个币赚还是亏,赚多少亏多少。我更多关注整体资金曲线的管理。就像打仗,不在意一城一池的得失。

(ii)过于关注某个币种是否暴富时,风险很难控制,整个投资收益曲线会忽上忽下坐过山车。别人可能因为你某一笔成功交易而记住你,但你自己要清楚,币圈长期赚钱在于不出现致命亏损,这是最最重要的。

我自己2023年最满意的的一笔投资,是5个月没有动,没有亏钱。从23年5月到10月,我仓位非常小,5%-10%。10月BTC的ETF消息来了,我认为整个趋势逆转,开始重仓干进去。

垃圾行情时,没有赚钱效应,折腾越多,本金亏的越多,管住手不动才是最重要的。

BTCdayu:张老师讲他投资风格的变化。我学到了一点——迭代。币圈是变化发展非常快的圈子,它最重要的一个能力可能就是迭代。浩天是技术派,从技术角度捕捉机会,重仓几十倍收益,非常可怕。我很认同中本蒜,好像确实猛赚一笔后特别容易大亏。他说最满意的一笔投资是几个月没操作,很有哲理。

我聊一下23年TIA投资,对我也是一种进化。

TIA刚上线不久,VC叫我买,没买。我的特点是自己研究透了再买。我内心对它也有偏见,觉得公链有成百上千条,还这么贵,有什么好买的?接下来,V神写了连续两篇文章,讲Rollup正统性。我研究后发现它做DA是以太坊的主营业务,等于以太坊核心科技被人家抢。我一个叙事玩家,看到连V神都感觉到有威胁的项目,牛逼,买。后面它走势很好,而且属于长期可以看好的项目,在模块化、DA叙事里比较好。

陈剑:我讲讲Solana,我在18U时写过一篇文章讲为什么要买它。也没想到这么猛,34卖了一半,后来发现势头止不住。涨回34又接回来。60-70开始陆续出货。

我自己比较喜欢做研究,享受通过大量信号分析,基本面拆解,找到一个有潜力的标买进去。不管赚多少。这种方式的成就感是很强的。

Q2:5分钟快速总结投资系统?

张潇雨:与其说是系统,我认为是一种投资原则。两点:

(i)投资策略。思考投资标的“向下风险”和“向上空间”的不对称性。找到下行风险有限,向上空间无限的标的。币圈往往上下空间都太大,速度非常快,情绪来去超过各种市场。一定要关注这个逻辑。

我在试验,小市值标的,通过筛选找到没有那么容易归零的资产,相对早,相对便宜介入。当然,这个策略也要配合卖出策略,包括止损方式。

(ii)币圈投资我非常注重打造一个好的输入信息系统和人际网络,可能胜过具体的一个投资策略。

这个网络在牛市作用很大。一是捕捉、筛选、分析信息。二是补足自己的弱项。

Haotian:我不太热衷炒币,大部分时间花在投研。我倾向于从政治、技术、商业生态几个角度来分析、选择标的。

(i)政治:Crypto背后全是政治。ETF通过背后是美国为了巩固美元霸权,华尔街借机向Crypto行业渗透。观察美国资本重度参与的项目,我觉得有机会。中国人炒铭文,外国人玩Solana上的MEME,也是政治。TIA做DA跟以太坊也是一个政治对立。V神多次撰文呼吁守护以太坊DA能力。

(ii)技术:新锐公链为什么会火?一部分因为以太坊落地不及预期。很多以太坊项目是在解决它的技术缺陷,账户抽象等等,属于打补丁行为。因此,一定会有以太坊搅局者。Solana,它有高并发。SUI,它基于MOVE语言有安全性。包括做并行EVM的。都有机会。

(iii)战略卡位:我一直关注两个方向,DA和可交互操作性。DA是以太网核心能力,新锐链想跟以太坊抢资源,首先想到去做DA,卡以太坊脖子,做短暂的叙事获得市场认可。celestia要关注一下。Celestia想把以太坊生态抽走,Eigenlayer要帮助以太坊把生态留下,跟第三方DA做对抗,它也挺有意思。

另外,Altlayer也很有意思,它让那些小而美的Layer2以很轻量化、模块化的方式,用它提供的组件做开发,一个很好商业模式。它其实踩中了一个做模块化、轻量化的趋势。

总之,你可以先找趋势,然后再找项目,看它在二级市场的表现,感觉价值低估了考虑要不要投资。

中本蒜:币圈投资,你首先要考虑实现的目标是什么?我的目标:经常小赚小亏,偶尔大赚,绝不大亏。

要实现三个目标有四点:出最少的手,下最重的仓,快速降低持仓成本,用网格开心做长线。

如何出最少的手?答:只在绝佳机会时出手。

我在币圈七八年时间,很长一段时间特别的迷茫。很忙很累,但最后没赚什么钱。我想“精进技术”,对标的做更深的研究,把握技术面更好的入场时机,控制仓位,总之就是“更极致”。

最后发现,都是死胡同!最后怎么办?不做加法,做减法。没有特别好的机会绝对不出手。什么才算绝佳机会?先要了解什么是垃圾机会。我总结位“五个不做单”。

(i)大盘行情不好不做单。一定要耐心等待大盘行情。很多时候我们很怕错过财富密码,着急把仓位打上去。其实,每一轮牛市BTC都至少有3-5次20%以上回调。你一定可以等到这种大幅度回调的机会。

(ii) 研究不深不做单。很多大佬会告诉你这个币很厉害,但你自己不研究你是拿不住的,你不配赚这个钱。

(iii)技术形态不好不做单。这是为了破除信息茧房。你研究某个币越多会越看好。基本面之外,一些起决定性作用的东西,筹码结构、关键人物坐庄等你看不到。我的经验是用技术面佐证。基本面研究和技术面信息打架,我一定听技术面的。

(iv)盈亏比不理想不做单。像张老师说的不对称性机会,找盈亏比特别理想的机会。

(v)状态不好不做单。大幅度亏损之后会有急切回本的心情,大亏之后不做单。大幅度盈利之后也不要做单,你会不珍惜这个钱,风险偏好变得特别高。无论是利润还是本金,它都是钱,没差别。

什么是下最重的仓?答:研究深入就上重仓。

有些人今天打一下这个防身,明天打一下那个防身,你是来炒币的,还是来当什么安保队长的?

什么是快速降低持仓成本?答:分批建仓,盈利减仓。

很多时候拿不住就是因为持仓成本没优势。成本低就很能拿住。

涨起来进入的币怎么降低持仓成本?我认为要分批建仓,不要着急,有盈利之后适当减仓。另一个极端是所谓“零成本持仓”,我觉得没必要。你最终目的是尽可能多的持有仓位,安全持有,舒服持有。

什么是网格交易?答:开心做长线。

赚大钱肯定要做长线。我没有见过任何一个整天冲来冲去能赚大钱。长线的挑战是波动会很剧烈,可能拿不住吃不到大利润,可能死扛归零。你会很纠结。网格交易就是震荡行情赚钱。

陈剑:两个投资心得。

第一,尽一切可能拿到一手信息,不抽“二手烟”。我每天可能有5个小时泡在各个论坛,然后是DC,以及博客,在里面去找信息。Twitter会少一些。

第二,加强对信息的检索和加工能力,抛开信噪找到有效信息。具体拆开很复杂,我写过两篇文章,总结得比较全面。大家可以去我推特看,这里不耽误大家太多时间。

BTCdayu:我的投资系统就是四个字:“看准+重仓”。

如何看准:一开始我注重基本面,后面我最拿手的是叙事。叙事就是判断到底最后有多少人认可它。关注度越高,它当然越能涨。比如TIA,V神也害怕的东西,它的叙事就厉害。

看准除了公开信息,最好多一些优质信息源,从机构、资金、庄家、项目方等视角去考虑问题。

如何重仓:1U时,ORDI我只买了100万人民币,这叫不叫重仓?对我当时的资金链来说仓位是不够的。但当时我觉得是很合适的一个仓位,当时我冲土狗一般是十个以太坊,这个比土狗好一点,所以买100万人民币好像OK。但现在我不会再这么想了,类似中本蒜提到的,我会减少出手机会。真的它特别好的话我会尽可能在能承受的情况下,经济、情绪、状态等各个方面,我要尽最大可能去重仓。

重仓的前提是你真的非常懂。非常懂也有坑。你可能遗漏了一个致命信息。你就会亏的很多。

最后讲一下“卖出策略”:我经常讲“只估值不预测估值”,就是说我判断它现在便不便宜。

当时,我看ORDI是2100万美金市值。当时一个meme币可以2亿,可以10亿,狗狗币600亿。比特币链上第一个币meme

2000万贵吗?我觉得还好,便宜。我估值,但我不预测,我预测不了,不知道它什么时候涨,能涨多少。

Q3:2024年投资机会又在哪?

张潇雨:我有一个经验,年底讲展望都是扯淡。

现在会看到很多说法,比特币L2、Depin、Solana生态、以太坊Restaking等。

我的态度是不预测,只应对。我非常注重打造信息和人际网络,那就是为这个东西准备的。

中本蒜:我认为币圈的一些主叙事,只要你稍微关注一下,你不太可能完全踏空。

我个人认为机会比较多的三个赛道:Solana生态、AI、Depin。

但这个结论后面可能会随时推翻。永远对新赛道,新机会,抱着求知若渴的心情去解读它。

Haotian:第一:Layer1新锐公链。比如MOVE系,它支持高并发,比较安全,对比其他开发语言有很大优势。

第二:整合互交互操作性。我们今天链很多,流动性很分裂,用户体验很差。这类项目把各个链打通,降低用户门槛。这个概念是很好的。比如ZETA,大家可以关注一下。还有Particle network,联合50多条链搞铭文运动,比较火,整合能力很强。

第三:模块化。VC看好,想象空间大,短时间能整合行业各种资源,市场容易FOMO。TIA的表现有目共睹。

第四:Layer2。虽然有OP、ARB等,但一些搅局者表现突出,比如Metis,比如Blast。这些搅局者的生态一旦有起色,前途不可限量。Blast我觉得它压根就不是Layer2,但它确实改变了行业对这个赛道的想象空间。它很可能带来市场FOMO,很值得预期的。

陈剑:第一,游戏赛道。先看链,再看具体游戏。这里,XAI我觉得依然还是有很大的机会。

第二:模块化、链抽象,我不再赘述。

BTCdayu:第一:模块化。TIA是个好东西,难点在于,现在可能比较难下手。

第二:链抽象。比如ZETA,上了OK,没有上币安,这样流动性比较差,这里面还有点信息差。它不上币安的叙事,我不确定OK会不会拿它去对抗币安,后者最近上了几个很热的模块化概念的币。

第三:预言机。LINK我是实在下不去手。最近有一个PYTH,OK有,币安还没有上。是坏事也是好事。它的市值也挺高的,现在大概0.4。

第四:Solana可能会出现100亿市值的meme。Solana一帮老OG不停搞各种meme。背后逻辑,他们发现meme带来了很大的活力,他们整个生态meme的文化正在形成。

Q4:只有10万U,哪几个币能助你重回巅峰,达成“1亿小目标”?

张潇雨:抛开这十万U,假如现在没有钱,或者很少,可以做什么?

第一,空投,套利,打新。小成本搏大收益。

第二,一部分可以去观察主叙事上比较便宜的东西,低市值,较高倍数潜力的项目。但需要信息挖掘,早期进入。

第三,另外一部分就配置一些主流币种,吃到一些市场的贝塔收益。

第四:不要玩合约。

Haotian:2万U给涨老师当顾问,8万让dayu老师去操盘。(笑)

开玩笑,我讲的很多都是偏性趋势性的观点,具体落到投资上可能会有一些滞后性。趋势在那里,能不能起来它需要时间,甚至是偶然性。但是,当趋势起来时,还等啥呢?重点布局。

想以10万U博财富自由,肯定要找趋势性的机会。

中本蒜:我推荐三个财富密码:Solana、RNDR、Mobile。

Solana:我隐约看到了当年以太坊的风采。

RNDR:横跨AI、Solana生态等多个赛道,也是苹果VR合作伙伴,注意苹果后续VR设备的动态,市场会有造势反应。

Mobile:有点高风险,可能高收益。讲的是美国移动的故事。

陈剑:肯定要先设定一个目标。根据预期找标的。

想翻三五倍,找长线、确定性的赛道。游戏、AI之类。更高倍率,找低市值,甚至没上所,或上小所的币。

BTCdayu:如果只有10万U。(i)每天去看各种各样的东西,尽可能接收更多东西。(ii)撸毛。(iii)在自己比较熟悉的领域找机会。

24年大的机会我想到角度。(i)meme币。看准,争取一击必中。(ii)NFT。NFT现在很凉,流动性很差。这时发现好的标的能赚到很多钱。一些游戏NFT,不仅本身能涨,还能空投代币,空投道具,很爽。(iii)买热门叙事币。如果资金量再大一些,我会看比如TIA,虽然价格很高了,但牛市我看他上限。(iv)买热门链。比如SOL,我看它可能成为跟以太坊分庭抗礼的一个链。

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Approved by the Federal Reserve, the interest rate will be cut by half soon, the US election will be halved, and the rise of Ethereum Cancun will be completed. The spot of Ethereum may be approved, which indicates that the potential of the encryption industry in is far from being brought into play. Both practitioners and investors are looking forward to gaining something in this bull market. Where is the wealth password and how to invest it? The sooner you know these two issues, the sooner you can be prepared to cope with the changing market. Zhang Xiaoyu, a researcher, is recommended to read in the meeting room of Bailu today. A well-known hedge fund manager, Chen Jianqian, summed up and shared the practical experience of Bengarlic's investment in the research institute. What was the most satisfactory investment in the currency circle in? Zhang Xiaoyu's more successful investment in the year was that when he first entered, the price was on the one hand to make money, and on the other hand, I thought it was a breakthrough in my investment style. I wouldn't invest in particularly early projects at the beginning of the currency circle because I couldn't see if it was really reliable and could run out. There was no particularly strong product concept and strong cash flow forecast in the currency circle project. With the explanation of the traditional financial world, it is still in the angel wheel. At this time, it is difficult to judge whether it can be a long-term trend, whether the flow can be sustained, and the reason why I voted for it is that the annual risk appetite is indeed higher. In addition, I believe that I still have to dare to invest in relatively early projects, especially when new assets, new tracks and new trends come out, not only dare to vote, but also have a degree problem. Seeing that it is getting higher and higher, the value is getting higher and higher. I have additional investment, and then I sell some of it when it rises to US dollars, and then it rises back After a long time, I added it back. In short, I made a lot of breakthroughs in the psychological level that I wouldn't have done before. I was quite satisfied with the copy of the public chain track. Why did the last round of public chain competition say that it would kill Ethereum? This round of narrative is who will be a supplement to Ethereum to achieve the performance that Ethereum can't do. From this logic, I studied and saw that there was an opportunity to show all kinds of powerlessness because of the downtime of the chain, but after research, I found that the technology was at the bottom because it supported high concurrency. In fact, the performance is superior, and the ability to approach can provide infrastructure services for the industry. It holds all kinds of hackers every year, developers are active, founders have various backgrounds, and the price is low, so I think there is a chance. At that time, I thought that the ecology of the four kings was in a mess, and there was no progress in technology, especially the decentralized sorter. I found that it was not that the technology was not good, but that they were unwilling to engage in it. They relied on the sorter to make their power peak, and they were unwilling to let go. At this time, I I think there must be some projects that will challenge them at this point. They make people shine at the moment, and the technology has successfully copied the bottom. So I cut in to invest in this garlic from the perspective of narrative business ecological card position. I talk about the logic of my own heavy position. In a bull market, the increase of money will often be exaggerated, and the explosive multiple of money will not be only a little. It is good to buy it at the very early stage of money, but if you know it later, you don't have to feel sorry that you can eat it in the middle and late stages. You need to consider it very much. The popular track must be a white horse that runs out, and so on. It's not the point to eat the next wave of gains at a better technical opportunity. I want to express a point. What many newcomers hear the most is the story of wealth, a huge profit from investment, thinking that the coin circle is going to make money like this. This is wrong. It is not determined by a certain profiteering transaction, but by countless transactions. Some contract players must have highlights, but they may not make much money in the end. I suggest a lot. Retail investors are very concerned about how much a certain currency earns or loses. I pay more attention to the management of the overall capital curve, just like fighting a war. I don't care too much about the gains and losses of one city and one pool. When a certain currency becomes rich, it is difficult to control the risk. The whole investment-income curve will go up and down. Others may remember you because of a successful transaction, but you should know that the long-term profit of the currency circle lies in the absence of fatal losses. This is the most important thing. The investment I am most satisfied with last month has not moved. The news that I lost money from January to October came. I think the whole trend reversed and I started to do heavy positions. When I went into the junk market, there was no money-making effect. The more I tossed around, the more I lost the principal. It was the most important thing to stop. Teacher Zhang told me about the change of his investment style. I learned a little about the iterative currency circle, which is a circle with rapid changes and development. Perhaps its most important ability is to iterate. Haotian is a technical school. It is very terrible to seize opportunities from a technical point of view. I agree that it seems that Ben garlic is indeed. He said that the most satisfactory investment is that it hasn't been operated for several months, which is very philosophical. Let me talk about the annual investment, which is also an evolution for me. I just went online and asked me to buy it or not. My characteristic is that I have studied it thoroughly before buying it. I also have a prejudice against it. Then God wrote two consecutive articles about orthodoxy. After research, I found that it is the main business of Ethereum, which means that the core technology of Ethereum has been robbed of my narrative. When players see a project that even God feels threatened, they buy it. It's going well and it belongs to a long-term promising project. It's better in modular narrative. Jian Chen, I told you why I bought it when I wrote an article, but I didn't expect to sell it so fiercely. Later, I found that the momentum couldn't stop rising, and then I started to ship it one after another. I prefer to do research and enjoy the achievement of finding a potential bid through a lot of signal analysis and fundamental dismantling, no matter how much I earn. A strong sense is to quickly summarize the investment system in a minute. Zhang Xiaoyu is not so much a system, but I think it is an investment principle. Think about two investment strategies. Think about the asymmetry between the downward risk and the upward space of the investment target. Find the currency circle with limited downward risk and unlimited upward space. Often, the upper and lower spaces are too large and the speed is very fast. Emotions must pay attention to this logic. I am trying to find assets that are not so easy to return to zero through screening. Of course, this is relatively early and relatively cheap to intervene. The strategy should also be matched with the selling strategy, including the stop-loss method. I pay great attention to building a good input information system and interpersonal network, which may be better than a specific investment strategy. This network plays a great role in the bull market. First, it captures the screening analysis information. Second, it makes up for my own weaknesses. I am not very keen on speculating in coins. I tend to analyze the politics behind choosing the target from the perspectives of politics, technology and business ecology. Behind it is the United States. In order to consolidate the hegemony of the US dollar, Wall Street takes the opportunity to infiltrate into the industry and observe the projects in which American capital is heavily involved. I think there is 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台

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