加密只干三件事:邪教、庞氏、赌场?

币圈资讯 阅读:43 2024-04-22 09:49:14 评论:0
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作者: AC Capital

币圈能抓住的往往是反权威、非体制化、社会边缘人群,他们更不容易将自己的信任无条件授权给权威,更可能拒绝接受体制对个体定价,类似于哈伯格税中描述的情况。

经朋友推荐,在推特上发现了一个很有料的大V,他分享的观点让我学习到很多,在此整理分享出来,有兴趣的朋友可以自行上X与大V交流:

本材料只做内部学习讨论,不作为业务操作指导

01、你做的盘子为什么起不来?

常在深圳的朋友可能碰到过这样的庄,他们上个周期赚了钱,上来就告诉你自己看市场上什么模式/产品火,就想能不能做这样一个类似的,改一改,加入老的模式和推广制度,干就完了

结果往往是,花了很长时间开发,准备物料,然后对接社区长,办大会准备开动时,发现市场推不动,成本巨高,入金起不来。

加密只干三件事:邪教、庞氏、赌场?

02、要从韭菜的角度思考

问题原因非常简单: 盘子设计只站在了盘主自己的角度,忽略了这个盘子的潜在受众(韭菜)。你要考虑的不是要找买单"火的项目"的韭菜,而你起了盘子能触达的有效韭菜 (VC管这个叫total attainable market, TAM)

你看别人家韭菜香,结果发现自己地里都是土豆。镰刀无用,得上铲子。

加密只干三件事:邪教、庞氏、赌场?

03、起盘就是创业!

所以说, 起盘本质跟创业没区别,都是先知道可触达的市场是谁,了解他们啥需求,才提出解决方案,最后提出市场策略

因此在考虑起盘时,我们应该遵循这样的思维路径

第一: 考虑的问题就是我能触达什么韭菜,他们什么需求(赚谁钱)

第二: 才能去思考崩盘模型(挣啥钱)

第三: 才是三盘模型设计(咋挣钱)

加密只干三件事:邪教、庞氏、赌场?

04、三层受众分级

那怎样分析受众呢? 首先要有一个TAM韭菜池辐射面的概念。这个池子以离庄家集团远近划分(庄家集团,包括团队本身,市场领导人, 可有效调动KOL媒体等) 为三层

A直接喊的动: 该题材可以直接喊上车

B信息可触达但不直接上车: 信息可以辐射,但上车与否要看项目

C无法触达: 需要裂变出圈

加密只干三件事:邪教、庞氏、赌场?

05、庄要怎么组团队?

有了模型,下一步就是确立庄家集团边界。这个庄家集团的人数并不是越多越好。古人云“事密则成", 最理想的状态是”人数少,辐射广", 理想的狗庄团队成员应该:

- 利益绑定且一致

- 单体A+B(见上图)范围越大越好

- 听庄指挥,能打胜仗(杜绝蹭车)

- 不大于7人(一般内部团队7人以上调度会出问题)

加密只干三件事:邪教、庞氏、赌场?

06、带单是检验实力的唯一标准

这解释了很多项目的团队和融资选择,比如为什么一个项目要选择XX当顾问,为什么会踹掉了别的VC给某个大V或交易所腾额度。因为他们能极大扩大A+B甚至覆盖原有的C。因此带得动的韭菜(包括散户和接盘机构)是检验VC、KOL、交易所的唯一标准。这也是机构二级化KOL化的原因(也是“开源镰刀”存在的原因)。

加密只干三件事:邪教、庞氏、赌场?

07、题材无限,而韭菜有限

此时不论什么项目,这个庄家集团的"狭义毛TAM"应该是全体成员A+B总和。为什么是狭义-毛? 因为只考虑这个集团的当下既有辐射面;为什么是毛?因为具体到某个题材,这个辐射面里未必所有人都大概率买单

然而市场变化速度快,题材选择无限,而你的韭菜池是不变的。你需要一个测试去评估你的辐射面

加密只干三件事:邪教、庞氏、赌场?

08、评级辐射面的四条标准

从纯币圈角度, 我将这个标准总结为有先后的4点:

- 价值观: 是否反传统?是否接受币?

- 认知: 是否会出入金,会用钱包 or只能交易所,怎么建立信任? 项目多拉跨会维权?

- 信息来源: 推特电报还是微信群朋友圈?

- 用户风险偏好: 更像债权还是股权投资人? 对回报周期与年化需求? 做市场还是纯喊单?

加密只干三件事:邪教、庞氏、赌场?

09、社区形态由韭菜决定

回答这些,将帮助你决定崩盘模型和三盘取舍。比如大部分深圳2019年的CX社区

- 多为个体人士,可以接受币

- 大部分需要市场领导人帮忙出入金,会用交易所。信任建立方式偏传统要背书,项目维权阈值较低

- 用户更接近债权投资人但接受小额股权博弈,回报需求日化1%,大多懂CX制度、事实更倾向于喊单

加密只干三件事:邪教、庞氏、赌场?

10、韭菜认知提升,模式才会升级

因此19-20年深圳主要的盘子模型是理财盘(Plustoken),商城返利等分红盘, 和带拆分盘特性的分红盘(花火、银河)。这些盘符合:

- 纯用币出入金

- 中心化近似交易所的体验,方便插入各种背书,用户维权阈值过低所以不论怎样泵跑跑路都差不多

- 做CX市场结构和日化稳定分红,用拆分盘喊单赚流水和消泡沫

加密只干三件事:邪教、庞氏、赌场?

11、搞盘子也要讲触发模型

狗庄的韭菜池辐射面决定了他能做什么盘,而不是狗庄想做什么盘然后扔给社区去推,这属于本末倒置

再者,能够谈“辐射"必然涉及到一个传播问题。传播决定了盘子能做多大,能赚多少。首先A区不用考虑传播问题,主要是B区和C区。如何让更多的B区和C区:

- 看到 - 渠道

- 认同 - 信息

- 上车 - 触发

加密只干三件事:邪教、庞氏、赌场?

12、信息对错不重要,符合韭菜认知更重要

传播同样也基于受众,因此可以代入8/中的测试。B和C很难精确评估行为,所以着重价值观与认知。

币圈能抓住的往往是反权威、非体制化、社会边缘人群,他们更不容易将自己的信任无条件授权给权威,更可能拒绝接受体制对个体定价,类似于哈伯格税中描述的情况。

当你的信息符合以上特性,你就能接近他们。

加密只干三件事:邪教、庞氏、赌场?

13、社区口号千篇一律没关系

这就是纯crypto社区的口号不论什么项目,基本都围绕去中心化、公平、无需可,而非应用、效率、秩序的原因。这是受众而非偏见决定的。形而上说,该类受众,我称为“新人类”(鋼彈里的newtype), 是人类进化的新阶段。他们的经济表现形式就是一切的金融化,任何行为都要to earn。不是他们更逐利

加密只干三件事:邪教、庞氏、赌场?

14、为了吃饭,不寒掺

而是他们作为新人类追求经济生活中一切的主权定价和自由定价。旧人类会将自己的时间精力批发给公司/组织,新人类要求定价和分润,从外界来看给人一种“币圈人只求挣钱只玩盘子的刻板印象。旧人类活着第一是要吃饭,新人类活着第一也是要吃饭,只是方式不同。先解决吃饭,再谈淫欲

加密只干三件事:邪教、庞氏、赌场?

15、割韭菜发家,做实事破产

从这一点,也就不难理解为什么那些高喊非金融应用,Web3游戏,Web3社交的纷纷败走麦城了。本质上是对自己受众诉求不理解,脱离了经济性去谈可玩性去谈社交粘性对于新人类都白扯

不信就看看 @warpcast_纯去中心化social无人问津,一朝社交土狗launchpad天下闻名。再看看Lens,不发币就等孝帽子了:

加密只干三件事:邪教、庞氏、赌场?

16、高端韭菜搞线上

理解这一点是道,剩下的都是术。

如果你的B+C受众符合“新人类”标准,那么你的信息需要突出14/里的价值观,这就是为什么meme在crypto强势的原因 - 既是信息也是触发。这里的meme是广义,你的盘子制度背书故事团队等等都是meme的一部分,才能最大化传播。

渠道选用这类人易出现的: 推、Tiktok、Reddit等

加密只干三件事:邪教、庞氏、赌场?

17、传统韭菜搞线下

如果你的受众不是新人类,那就要采用更传统,更维权的形式

  • 渠道采用线下: 地推,大会+站台

  • 线上: 网课, 口号式社区,精聊

而所传递的信息主旨是形成对于受众的权威话语权压制,形成脸贴脸的领导人-团队信任结构。这里面需要的就是信息差.

加密只干三件事:邪教、庞氏、赌场?

当然这种模式的问题是成本过高。纯币网推虽然买量贵,但是线下网推搞接待租办公室前期成本更是离谱,最要命的是辐射面小。大量撸子吃招待,社区长带头跑不可控。

这意味着地推模式的项目客单价必须要高,而高客单价需要强信任强背书这个问题的终极解决方案,就是缅北精聊。效率高,可控强,成本低。

加密只干三件事:邪教、庞氏、赌场?

18、老韭菜要照顾好

有趣的是,对不少玩币纯盘传统用户来说,币圈原生用户也是权威。这意味着用degen类项目根据用户风险偏好魔改,采用更威权式的传播路径,打纯盘圈用户是可行的 - 因为天然的信息差。当然,前提是魔改的既要保留crypto native那个逼格的味儿,又要让大爷大妈看得懂,不要只顾一头。


What the author's currency circle can catch is often the people on the edge of the anti-authority and non-institutionalized society. It is even more difficult for them to unconditionally delegate their trust to the authority, and they are more likely to refuse to accept the system's pricing for individuals. Similar to the situation described in the Haber tax, I found a very informative view on Twitter after being recommended by my friends, which made me learn a lot. Interested friends can communicate with each other on their own. This material is only for internal learning and discussion, not for guiding your business operation. Why can't you get up? Friends who are often in Shenzhen may have come across such a village. When they made money in the last cycle, they told you to see what model products are on fire in the market, and they wanted to make such a similar change and join the old model and promotion system. As a result, it often took a long time to develop and prepare materials, and then docked with the community leaders to hold a conference. When they were ready to start, they found that the market could not be pushed, the cost was huge, and the money could not be raised. They only did three things. The cult Ponzi Casino had to think from the perspective of leeks. The reason for the problem is very simple. The dish design only stands on the owner's own point of view, ignoring the potential audience of the dish. What you should consider is not the leek that pays for the fire, but the effective leek that the dish can reach. This tells you to look at the leek fragrance of other people's homes. As a result, you find that your land is full of potato sickles, useless shovel encryption, and only do three things. The cult Ponzi Casino starts its business, so it is no different from starting a business. It is to know who knows what the accessible market is first. The solution is put forward only after the demand, and finally the market strategy is put forward. Therefore, we should follow this thinking path when considering the offer. The first consideration is what leek can I reach, what do they need to earn money, the second is to think about what money the crash model earns, and the third is how to design a three-plate model, how to earn money and encrypt it, and only do three things. How to classify the audience in the three-layer audience of the cult Ponzi Casino? First of all, how to analyze the audience? This pool should be divided into banker groups according to the distance from them. Including the team itself, market leaders can effectively mobilize the media, etc., for the three layers of direct shouting. This theme can directly shout that the information on the bus can be reached, but not directly. The information on the bus can be radiated, but whether it can be reached or not depends on whether the project cannot be reached. Only three things need to be fission and circle encryption. How can the cult Ponzi casino set up a team with a model? The next step is to establish the boundary of the banker group. The number of people in this banker group is not as large as possible. The ancients' secret affairs are the most ideal state, and the number of people is small and the radiation is wide. Team members should have the same interests. See the picture above. The bigger the scope, the better. Zhuang's command can win the battle. It can prevent people from bumping into cars. Generally, there will be problems in dispatching meetings with more than one internal team member. Encryption only does three things. The cult Ponzi casino bill is the only criterion to test the strength. This explains why many projects choose to be consultants. For example, why do they kick out other quotas for a big or exchange because they can greatly expand or even cover the original ones? Moving leeks, including retail investors and takeover institutions, are the only criteria for testing the exchange, which is also the reason for the second level of institutions and the existence of open source sickle. Encryption only does three things. The theme of the cult Ponzi Casino is infinite, while leeks are limited. At this time, no matter what the project is, the narrow sense of this bookmaker group should be the sum of all its members. Why is it narrow sense? Because we only consider the existing radiation surface of this group, why is it hair? Because everyone may not pay the bill with a high probability when it comes to a certain theme. However, the market is changing rapidly, the theme selection is infinite, and your leek pool is unchanged. You need a test to evaluate your radiation surface encryption. There are only three things to do. The cult Ponzi Casino has four standards for rating radiation surface. From the perspective of pure currency circle, I sum up this standard as whether there is a sequence of values, whether it is anti-traditional, whether it accepts currency cognition, whether it will go in and out, whether it will use wallets, and how to establish trust projects. Dora will cross-party rights protection information sources. Twitter or WeChat group friends' risk preferences are more similar. Creditor's rights or equity investors market the return cycle and annualized demand, or simply call for single encryption to do only three things. The form of the cult Ponzi casino community is determined by leeks. Answering these will help you decide the crash model and three choices. For example, most of the communities in Shenzhen in 2009 are accepted by individuals, and most of them need the help of market leaders to get in and out of the fund. The exchange trust establishment method is more traditional, and the users are closer to the creditor's rights investors, but accept small equity game returns. Demand for daily chemical products mostly knows the system facts, and it is more inclined to shout for single encryption. Only by doing three things will the awareness promotion model of leek in the cult Ponzi casino be upgraded. Therefore, the main plate models in Shenzhen in 2008 were the financial plate, the mall rebate, and the dividend plate with split disk characteristics. These plates are in line with the experience of pure currency entering and leaving the gold center, which is similar to the exchange. It is convenient to insert various endorsements. The threshold for users' rights protection is too low, so no matter how they pump and run, they are almost doing market structure and daily chemical stability. Dividend calls with split disk. Making running water and defoaming encryption only do three things. The cult Ponzi Casino should also talk about the trigger model. The radiation surface of the leek pond in Dog Farm determines what dish he can make, not what dish Dog Farm wants to make, and then throws it to the community to push. This belongs to putting the cart before the horse. Moreover, being able to talk about radiation inevitably involves a communication problem. Communication determines how big the dish can be and how much it can earn. First of all, the communication problem does not need to be considered. The main thing is how to let more districts and districts see the channel identification information. Triggering encryption only does three things. It doesn't matter whether the information of the cult Ponzi Casino is right or wrong, which is in line with leek cognition, but it is more important to spread it. It is also based on the audience, so it can be substituted into the test and it is difficult to accurately evaluate the behavior. Therefore, focusing on values and cognition can often capture the anti-authority and non-institutionalized marginalized people, who are less likely to unconditionally authorize their trust to the authority, and are more likely to refuse to accept the system's pricing for individuals, which is similar to the situation described in Haber's tax. When your information meets the above characteristics, you can get close to them and only do encryption. It doesn't matter that the slogan of the cult Ponzi Casino community is the same. This is the slogan of the pure community. No matter what projects are basically centered on decentralization, fairness, it is not necessary to apply efficiency and order. This is the reason that the audience is determined by the metaphysics rather than prejudice. I call this kind of audience the new stage of human evolution. Their economic expression is the financialization of everything. If they are not more profit-seeking, they only do three things. Instead, the cult Ponzi Casino pursues sovereign pricing and free pricing of everything in economic life as new human beings. Old human beings will spend their time and energy. 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台

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