详解Pandora的价值与估值
作者：BTCdayu 来源：X，@BTCdayu
本文为几天前本人参加 @followin_io_zh 的自由麦时的发言，经群友帮忙整理出来：
在四月份的时候，我开了一个临时SPACE，就是突然拉一个SPACE讲ORDI，那时候应该有一千多人收听，那天是最火的一个空间。那时候场外应该是1–2U的价格，很多人听了之后，就冲进去买了ORDI。买完后不久，ORDI的价格就迅速上涨。
当价格下跌时，整个推特上都在讨论，说什么"大宇就是SB"，还在传播一些谣言说我在20U叫大家梭哈之类，完全无视我在5U时说的不再有购买建议。
铁粉能赚钱，黑粉只能喷人。
今天followin发了这个协议的文章，恰好中午搞这个自由麦，我上来聊聊404协议，
我感觉这个协议跟四月份末的ORDI非常相似，甚至可能比当时的ORDI还要强。你可能觉得奇怪，有这么夸张？但等我稍后解释原因，你就会明白了。
你看链上数据，从昨晚开始，我们群里让大家上车时价格是3000，现在已经是六千九了（截至本文发出是14000），关键是它的流动性池子有一千六百万美金，你多久没见过这么大的池子？
现在它的市值是5500万，很多人可能会觉得高了，但是这个市值差不多是2U多的ORDI，你觉得2U的ORDI贵吗？
当然，我只是个人这么看的，这可不是作为投资建议。否则，我们今天的科普会变成了呼吁大家买入，而且如果你买了，你也不会分钱给我，对吧？如果你分钱给我，你可以怪我。
怎么边讲边涨啊，阳线拉得非常猛。很多人是不是边听就直接去买了？
一、什么是ERC404
ERC404协议，它也是一个天然钻石。
从比特币生态现在的情况来看，天然钻石非常少了，只有像ODI、阿童木这样的几个。倒不是说人工钻石不好，但是你要知道人工钻石跟天然钻石有什么区别。
比如ODI，你去买它也好，传播它也好，参与比特币也好，每个人都是平等的，中本聪并不会因为你买了比特币而从中受益，这叫天然，而且它很难被人工推动。
但是，如果我现在发个币叫大宇币，我背后有强大的资本实力，比如说有一亿美金用来拉盘，那价格肯定会疯狂上涨。
但我也得控盘，控到90%，这样做的目的肯定不是为了慈善，最后还是要割，所以人造钻石寿命短，天然钻石随着时间和空间的发酵会越来越有价值。
所以，我一直在寻找市场中的天然钻石，比如15年前的比特币就是天然钻石，谁发现得早，谁理解得透，谁就从中受益。到了ODI出现的时候，它是天然钻石。
而现在今天的ERC404协议，它也是天然钻石。
它的产生很偶然，就像当初V神给魔兽世界提BUG，暴雪不理会，然后V神愤而创建了以太坊一样。这边的404协议，也是因为发现了另一个协议的BUG，提出问题却被无视，于是就自己创造了404协议。它的诞生带有戏剧性。
简单来说，404协议就是一种币和NFT互换的协议。也就是说，未来所有在这个协议上发行的NFT，都具有原生的链上流动性。
所谓的原生，是指它不需要像Blur这样的项目来推动，它本身就有流动性。
过去你买BAYC等NFT，没有流动性会很尴尬，但现在你可以直接在Uniswap上交易你的NFT，这只是个开始 - - 更有趣的东西你得多想几步，但是仅这第一步你都不一定懂，我先讲讲。
1\在Uniswap上交易NFT的意义
实际上，当NFT具有了原生流动性之后，它可以与链上的所有基础设施结合，无论是DeFi借贷还是其他创新。
虽然NFT市场已经有了贷款、抵押和永续合约等服务，但这些往往难以实现。这是因为NFT的ERC-721标准在解决流动性问题时面临诸多挑战，包括碎片化解决方案等。
然而，引入了404协议之后，情况有了转变。NFT不仅仅是一个代币，它还可以更容易地融入各种金融合约，比如说永续合约就变得更加容易接入了。
关键的一点是，如果404协议能够得到类似ERC-721那样的广泛认可，特别是从像以太坊基金会这样的组织那里，它的潜力将是巨大的。
从目前整个网络热度的上升趋势来看，404协议获得广泛认可的可能性很高。
以太坊生态需要新鲜事物，而404协议似乎正好符合这一需求。目前流行的什么RWA、LRT等等，只对大户有意义。
对大持币者而言，复杂的质押策略和收益可能很有吸引力，但对于小额持币者来说，这些复杂的叙事和操作并不吸引人。他们对于获得微薄的年化收益并不感兴趣，而是更倾向于追求更大的市场机遇。
因此，像eigenlayer这样的重质押项目可能只吸引了少数用户的兴趣。
而404协议的出现，可能会彻底改变NFT市场的游戏规则。如果404协议得到广泛认可，那么所有的主流NFT项目都可能不再局限于像OpenSea这样的平台，而是可以直接上线其他大型交易所，如OKx或Binance。
这意味着，如果一个NFT项目采用404协议，它的流动性和可玩性将大大提高，可以带来更多的玩法和创新。
作为NFT的老玩家，当我看到404协议时，我感到了前所未有的兴奋。它打开了我对于NFT可能玩法的想象空间，让我期待未来会有更多新奇的项目出现。与之前只是发布一些精美图片和故事的NFT项目相比，404协议让NFT的交易和应用变得更加生动和有趣。
二、Pandora和404协议的关系
Pandora是一个基于404协议发布的币，Pandora的重要性可能在于它是基于特定协议的第一个币，这具有其独特的价值。
就像比特币链上的第一个币ORDI一样，有着巨大的价值。但比ORDI更让人兴奋的是，Pandora开创了新的可能性。
Ordi是一个meme，他的发展虽然一定程度上也受到整个生态的繁荣的带动，但是这个生态因为所在链的属性不是那么能给ORDI直接赋能。
但是，Pandora上这一点影响会直接而强大的多。比如考虑以下问题：
更多空投：404协议上的生态项目会不会给协议龙头项目空投来完成冷启动？
更多项目：当无数的生态项目去建设时，会不会其中有非常非常厉害的项目出来，进而给生态带来越来越大的财富效应，进而影响到PANDORA的估值？
更多悬念：再回PANDORA本身，买了一定的币，就有了NFT，这些NFT有不同的稀有度，这些箱子能否开出东西来，能否有更多玩法，很多悬念。
更多玩法：再有就是生态的项目都是既是币，又是NFT，未来会不会有更多的ETH生态上常见的套娃玩法？
更大空间：会不会以后所有的NFT和MEME都会在404协议上发起？
三、要特别关注几个点
一是协议是否能得到广泛认可？[截至本文发出，OKX钱包、ELEMENT、UNISWAP、metamask等均已经支持404协议]。
二是Vitalik会对协议发表怎么样的看法？他是否会注意并座谈到？在这里我觉得99%他会关注到。
因为他是一个非常公正、公道，没有太多私心的人，在我心中几乎是神一样的存在。这样的人只会站在是否有利于世界，是否有利于ETH生态的角度去看问题，那么404协议可能带来的让ETH更加繁荣的创新，他会反对吗？没有理由，他只会大力支持。
三是各个交易所是否会上线PANDORA？这么大的交易量和热度，没有理由不上，而且这不再是一个MEME，而是一个高价值项目。
总体来说，要相信一点：哪里有钱、哪里有流量，哪里就会爆发最多的创新。
[此处为其他嘉宾发言时间，项目方竟然也突然空降到了SPACE中，并进行了英文交流，此处就省略一些请大家听原文吧，项目方主要提到了一些团队背景，下一步计划等]
此后有听众向@BTCdayu交流一些问题，包括项目方的路线图等。
@BTCdayu:也就是大家关心的项目方后续怎么做，不过我觉得这个协议其实不需要项目方的存在感太强。
就是说，比如说路线图、官网、社区等等，其实都可以让社区去做，就像ERC-721一样，现在谁在管理大家也不关心，不需要知道。
就拿ERC-721上的第一个NFT - - Azuki为例，我们都知道当时Azuki为什么那么火，不就是因为他的协议层面很吸引人吗？他们甚至表示还可以改协议，这显得很牛逼，有实力。
所以，我觉得对于PanDora这个项目来说，它的价值更多的在于社区，而不是项目方做了什么。甚至可能项目方不需要做太多事情。
当然，这个项目方技术实力很强，同时也很开放，我们可以跟他们反馈一些好的建议。
但是，如果从投资的角度来看，我觉得项目方的角色就像是一颗未经雕琢的钻石，我们不需要太关心他们。
四、比特傻谈估值：会超越BAYC，还有几百倍
本段为嘉宾@bitfool1交流他的一些看法：
这个项目不同，它拥有不可复制的优势。我认为项目方的工作80%已经完成了。剩下的20%的运营和开发，即使项目方不做，也会有人做。
这个项目以最小的变化激活了NFT的最大流动性，我估计项目方自己都没有充分意识到这一点。以前很多NFT遇到了很大的困难，包括当前以太坊生态中NFT的流动性不足，很多硬手段都没有解决本质问题。
但是这个项目给了我们答案，一个精巧的零件解决了之前看似复杂的问题。它利用了智能合约生态已有的技术设施，所以接下来的事情应该会水到渠成。
未来将会有更多的DeFi协议来合作，这些都是可以预料的。
再说说估值，我认为这个项目会战胜BAYC，因为现在它的一个token或NFT大概在3到4的价格区间，而与Bored Ape相比，我早上看的时候是20倍，文章写的时候是10倍，现在可能只有7到8倍的估值差距。
这个差距有可能在24小时内就抹平。这是最理想的情况，但无论是24小时、一周还是几个月，这个项目相对于Bored Ape来说基础更好。
Bored Ape代表了一种过时的思路，它围绕几个小图片不停地做游戏来吸引名人，这些都已经过时了。
而404协议则是在正确的道路上前进，尽管很小，但它的估值涨得快，因为市场上有很多聪明人，他们对这些协议有深刻的理解，一看到就明白了。
当然，也有很多人早期进进出出，他们拿不住，所以相对于BAYC，它有7到8倍的估值。但是这7到8倍本身是币本位，币本位还有几倍的增长空间。
再加上币的估值将超过NFT的估值，因为BAYC只是纯图，而没有币。这里面有比特币生态的协议BRC420给我的启发，它的底子实际上比ATOMICal要差，但因为NFT和TOKEN的并存，它的市值可以明显超过ATOM。这意味着币的市值应该会超过纯图。
在404协议中，币加图，原则上它双方的流动性都能获得，可能会产生1加1大于2的效果。
所以，7到8倍Bored Ape的市值，再加上NFT和TOKEN的并存，币会大于图几倍，那么这样就是几十倍的市值。
再加上币本位本身将在牛市中增长几倍。那么算起来就是上百倍的估值增长。再加上，如果对标BAYC，它本身也会在牛市中增长几倍。
那算下来，这个项目居然有几百倍的上涨空间！
当然，未来也可能会出现各种问题，可能是协议出问题，可能是包括Vitalik在内的一些重量级人物认为这个项目不行，或者是关键性问题解决不了，或者是团队层面、合作方层面出现问题，都会有波折。
最坏的情况是归零，你投入的资金可能就没有了。但如果按照我所描述的路径，未来会不断有新的拆分，头部标的会强化，那么就有几百倍的收益，这是最理想的情况。
The author's source This article is a speech I attended a few days ago, which was sorted out with the help of a group of friends. In April, I held a temporary talk, that is, I suddenly pulled a talk. At that time, there should be more than 1,000 people listening to it. At that time, the price outside the venue should be the hottest. Many people rushed in and bought it. Soon after the purchase, the price rose rapidly. When the price fell, the whole Twitter was discussing and saying that Daewoo was still spreading some rumors that I was calling everyone Stud. Class completely ignores what I said. There is no suggestion to buy any more. Iron powder can make money. Black powder can only be sprayed. Today, the article of this agreement was posted. It happened that I was engaged in this free wheat at noon. I came up to talk about the agreement. I feel that this agreement is very similar to that at the end of April, and may even be stronger than that at that time. You may find it strange that it is so exaggerated, but when I explain the reasons later, you will understand. Look at the data on the chain, when we let everyone get on the bus in our group last night, the price is now 6,900. The key point is that its liquid pool has 16 million dollars. How long has it been since you saw such a big pool? Now its market value is 10,000. Many people may think it is high, but this market value is almost too much. Do you think it is expensive? Of course, I only think so personally. This is not as investment advice. Otherwise, our popular science today will become an appeal to everyone to buy, and if you buy it, you won't give me any money, right? If you give me some money, you can blame me for how it goes up while talking, and the yang line is pulled very hard. Did people buy an agreement directly while listening? It is also a natural diamond. From the current situation of bitcoin ecology, there are very few natural diamonds. It is not that artificial diamonds are not good, but you should know what is the difference between artificial diamonds and natural diamonds. For example, if you buy it, you can spread it, you can participate in bitcoin, and everyone will not benefit from it equally. This is called natural and it is difficult to be artificially promoted. However, However, if I send a coin called Daewoo Coin now, I have strong capital strength behind me. For example, if I have 100 million dollars to pull the offer, the price will definitely go up wildly, but I also have to control the offer. The purpose of doing this is definitely not for charity, so artificial diamonds have a short life and natural diamonds will become more and more valuable with the fermentation of time and space, so I have been looking for natural diamonds in the market. For example, Bitcoin was a natural diamond years ago, and whoever found it early and understood it thoroughly will benefit from it. It was a natural diamond when it appeared, but today's agreement is also a natural diamond. It came into being by accident, just as God ignored the blizzard in World of Warcraft and then created the Ethereum when he was angry. The agreement here was also created by himself because he found another agreement, but the problem was ignored. Its birth was dramatic. In short, the agreement is a kind of currency and exchange agreement, that is to say, all the agreements issued on this agreement in the future will have a primary chain. The so-called primordial mobility means that it does not need a project like this to promote its own liquidity. In the past, it would be embarrassing for you to buy and wait without liquidity, but now you can trade yours directly on the Internet. This is just a more interesting thing to start with. But you don't necessarily understand this first step. Let me talk about the significance of trading on the Internet first. In fact, after it has primary liquidity, it can be combined with all the infrastructure in the chain, whether it is lending or other innovations, although the market has already received loans. However, after the introduction of the agreement, the situation has changed. It can be more easily integrated into various financial contracts, such as the perpetual contract, and it becomes easier to access. The key point is that if the agreement can be widely recognized like that, especially from organizations like the Ethereum Foundation, its potential will be improved. It will be huge. Judging from the rising trend of the whole network, it is very likely that the agreement will be widely recognized. Ethereum ecology needs new things, and the agreement seems to meet this demand. What is popular at present is only meaningful to large holders. For large holders, complex pledge strategies and benefits may be attractive, but for small holders, these complex narratives and operations are not attractive. They are not interested in obtaining meager annualized benefits, but prefer to pursue more. Great market opportunity, therefore, a heavy pledge project like this may only attract the interest of a few users, and the appearance of the agreement may completely change the rules of the game in the market. If the agreement is widely recognized, all mainstream projects may no longer be limited to such a platform, but can be directly launched on other large exchanges, such as or this means that if a project adopts the agreement, its liquidity and playability will be greatly improved, which can bring more gameplay and innovative actions to old players. I felt unprecedented excitement at the meeting, which opened up my imagination of possible gameplay and made me look forward to more novel projects in the future. Compared with the previous projects that only released some beautiful pictures and stories, the agreement made the transactions and applications more vivid and interesting. Second, the relationship between the agreement and the agreement is a currency released based on the agreement. The importance may be that it is the first currency based on a specific agreement, which has its unique value, just like the first currency in the bitcoin chain. But what is more exciting than this is that it has created new possibilities. Although its development is also driven by the prosperity of the whole ecology to a certain extent, this ecology is not so directly empowered because of the attributes of its chain, but the impact on this point will be much more direct and powerful. For example, consider the following questions: Will more ecological projects on the airdrop agreement be airdropped to the leading project of the agreement to complete the cold start? Will there be many projects when countless ecological projects are built? Powerful projects come out and bring more and more wealth effects to the ecology, which in turn affects the valuation. There are several points to pay special attention to: first, whether the agreement can be widely recognized as of this article; second, how will the agreement be published? 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台
注册有任何问题请添加 微信：MVIP619 拉你进入群
打开微信扫一扫
添加客服
进入交流群
1.本站遵循行业规范，任何转载的稿件都会明确标注作者和来源；2.本站的原创文章，请转载时务必注明文章作者和来源，不尊重原创的行为我们将追究责任；3.作者投稿可能会经我们编辑修改或补充。
