击穿1万亿美元:为什么比特币是龙年财富密码

币圈资讯 阅读:34 2024-04-22 09:45:46 评论:0
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作者:比特客;来源:Koala考拉财经

2月14日,既是情人节,又是初五赢财神,对于加密社区来说,今天迎来农历龙年春节期间最兴奋的一天——比特币成功击穿51000美元阻力位,市值也突破了1万亿美元。

至此,包括比特币在内的全球前十大资产市值现已全部超过1万亿美元,具体为:黄金(13.459万亿美元)、微软(3.019万亿美元)、苹果(2.857万亿美元)、沙特阿美(2.065万亿美元)、Alphabet(1.811万亿美元)、英伟达(1.781万亿美元)、亚马逊(1.751万亿美元)、白银(1.242万亿美元)、Meta(1.173万亿美元)、比特币(1.012万亿美元)。

龙年财富密码为什么是比特币?

龙年财富密码是比特币,主要原因可能有以下几点:

首先是即将到来的比特币区块奖励减半事件。比特币减半是比特币经济设计的一个基本方面,大约每四年发生一次(或者确切地说每开采210,000个区块)发生一次。这一事件标志着新比特币的产生和释放进入流通的速度下降。具体来说,减半将开采新比特币区块的奖励减少了一半。

根据比特币过往减半周期历史,前4次减半事件之后均出现比特币牛市。首次牛市发生在2012年11月,当时BTC价格约为12美元。最近一次减半发生在2020年5月,当时BTC价格为8755美元,2021年疯狂冲向69000美元,比较每次减半前后的比特币盈利能力有助于预测2024年及以后的预期:

2012年12月减半:

  • 减半前:在减半前的13个月里,比特币的价格上涨了560%。

  • 减半后:在接下来的12个月里,出现了9120%的惊人增长。

2016年8月减半:

  • 减半前:12个月内,涨幅达369%。

  • 减半后:接下来的17个月,比特币的价值增长了3300%。

2020年6月减半:

  • 减半前:前18个月增长了330%。

  • 减半后:比特币的价值在接下来的17个月内增长了640%。

2024年减半预期:

截至2024年1月,比特币已从底部上涨了207%,距离下一次减半还剩四个月。与之前周期减半前的激增相比,这一增长更为保守。在过去的减半之前,比特币价格的平均涨幅约为420%,这使得2023年和2024年初的涨幅按周期平均值来看似乎微乎其微。减半后的平均增长率约为4353%,表明最强劲的增长阶段尚未到来。

其次是现货比特币ETF引发资金流入到加密市场。数据显示,比特币ETF在推出的第一个月就获得18亿美元资金净流入,上周累计净流入达到了12亿美元,几乎是迄今为止总流入量的一半。分析师表示,这种强大的买入压力正在推动价格上涨,这是近期增长的主要原因。渣打银行数字资产研究主管杰夫-肯德里克此前就曾表示,如果ETF继续以这种速度流入,每周大约增加10亿美元,那么比特币每天都会上涨。

此外,期权市场已出现7.5万美元行使价新高。Deribit数据显示行使价为65,000美元、70,000美元,甚至75,000美元的看涨期权已开始易手,看涨期权赋予投资者在规定日期之前以特定价格购买标的资产的权利,而看跌期权则赋予投资者出售的权利。看涨期权买家隐含看好市场。对较高行使价看涨期权的大量买入反映了经验丰富的市场参与者的看涨情绪。

比特币链上和交易所活动表现强劲

评估比特币的链上活动可以为了解网络的健康状况、采用情况和增长情况提供重要信息。然而据Glassnode数据显示,尽管价格表现强劲,却出现了一个与直觉相反的现象,即活跃实体的数量下降到了每天21.9万的周期低点。另一方面,转账量仍然非常强劲,每天处理的经济交易量约为77亿美元。活跃实体 "与不断增长的转账量之间的差异凸显了市场上活跃的大型实体的增多,每个实体的平均交易量飙升至26.3万美元/笔,这表明机构投资者和资本流动在不断增加。

交易所仍然是交易活动的主要场所,存取款交易量大幅增长,达到每天68亿美元。目前,与交易所相关的存取款活动约占所有链上交易量的 88%。目前进出交易所的交易量可与2021年牛市期间的峰值相媲美,仅有68个交易日(1.5%)的交易量高于峰值(基于30D-SMA 法), 再次凸显了市场参与者对比特币的兴趣在不断扩大。

最后的想法

现货比特币ETF的获批是数字资产行业发展的的一个重要里程碑事件,机构资金正公开流向该资产类别。随着投资者对长期受到质疑的GBTC ETF产品进行再平衡,尽管存在严重的供应过剩问题,但资本流入目前正在加速。

比特币不仅经受住了熊市的风暴,而且在过去一年的发展中变得更加强大,挑战过时的观念。虽然比特币长期以来一直被誉为数字黄金,但最近的发展表明比特币正在演变成更重要的东西。在链上活动激增的推动下,在显著的市场结构动力的支撑下,在其固有的稀缺性的支撑下,比特币已经显示出了其韧性。 

最后,祝愿加密社区龙年能够“龙抬头”,找到属于自己的财富密码。


Author Bitke Source Koala Finance Month is both Valentine's Day and the fifth day to win the God of Wealth. For the encryption community, today is the most exciting day during the Lunar New Year in the Year of the Loong. Bitcoin has successfully broken through the dollar resistance level, and the market value of the top ten assets in the world, including Bitcoin, has now exceeded one trillion dollars, specifically, gold trillion dollars, Microsoft trillion dollars, Apple trillion dollars, Saudi Arabia trillion dollars, NVIDIA trillion dollars and Amazon trillion dollars. Trillion Dollar Trillion Dollar Bitcoin Trillion Dollar the Year of the Loong Wealth Password Why Bitcoin the Year of the Loong Wealth Password is the main reason for Bitcoin? First, the upcoming bitcoin block reward halving event is a basic aspect of bitcoin economic design, which happens about once every four years or exactly once every mining block. This event marks that the speed of the generation and release of new bitcoins has decreased, specifically, halving will mine new bits. According to the history of bitcoin halving cycle in the past, there was a bitcoin bull market after the previous halving event. The first bull market occurred in June, when the price was about US dollars. The last halving occurred in June, when the price was US dollars. Comparing the profitability of bitcoin before and after each halving helps to predict the expected annual halving in 2008 and beyond. The price of bitcoin rose by half in the month before halving, and then it appeared amazing in the next month. Growth halved in the previous month and then halved in the next month. The value of bitcoin increased in the previous month and halved in the next month. It is expected that by the end of March, bitcoin has risen from the bottom, and there are still four months left before the next halving. This growth is more conservative than the surge before the previous halving. The average increase of bitcoin prices before the halving in the past is about, which makes the increase in the year and the beginning of the year cyclical. On the average, it seems to be very small. The average growth rate after halving indicates that the strongest growth stage has not yet arrived. Secondly, spot bitcoin has triggered capital inflows into the encryption market. Data show that bitcoin received a net inflow of $ billion in the first month of its launch. Last week, the cumulative net inflow reached $ billion, almost half of the total inflow so far. Analysts said that this strong buying pressure is pushing up prices, which is the main reason for the recent growth. Jeff kendrick, the supervisor, has previously said that if the inflow continues at this rate and increases by about $100 million per week, Bitcoin will rise every day. In addition, the option market has reached a new high of $10,000. The data shows that the call option with the exercise price of US dollars or even US dollars has begun to change hands. The call option gives investors the right to buy the underlying assets at a specific price before the specified date, while the put option gives investors the right to sell. Call option buyers are implicitly optimistic about the higher exercise of the market. The large number of price call options reflects the bullish sentiment of experienced market participants. Evaluating the activity on the bitcoin chain and the exchange can provide important information for understanding the health, adoption and growth of the network. However, according to the data, despite the strong price performance, there is a counter-intuitive phenomenon, that is, the number of active entities has dropped to a cycle low of 10,000 per day, on the other hand, the transfer volume is still very strong. The difference between active entities with an amount of about $ billion and the increasing amount of transfers highlights the increase of large active entities in the market, and the average transaction volume of each entity has soared to $10,000, which shows that institutional investors and capital flows are increasing, and the exchange is still the main place for trading activities, and the deposit and withdrawal transaction volume has greatly increased to $ billion per day. At present, the deposit and withdrawal activities related to the exchange account for about all the online transactions, and the current transaction volume entering and leaving the exchange can be the peak during the bull market in. The value is comparable. Only one trading day, the transaction volume is higher than the peak value. Based on the law, the interest of market participants in Bitcoin is once again highlighted. The final idea is that the approval of spot Bitcoin is an important milestone in the development of the digital asset industry. Institutional funds are openly flowing to this asset category. As investors rebalance products that have been questioned for a long time, although there is a serious oversupply problem, capital inflows are accelerating. Bitcoin has not only withstood the storm of bear market, but also The development in the past year has become more powerful and challenged the outdated concept. Although Bitcoin has long been known as digital gold, the recent development shows that Bitcoin is evolving into something more important. Driven by the surge in chain activities, supported by the remarkable market structure and its inherent scarcity, Bitcoin has shown its resilience. Finally, I wish the encryption community the Year of the Loong can look up and find its own wealth password. 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台

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