写在元宇宙奇点发生时 盘一盘2024年主要叙事逻辑

币圈资讯 阅读:45 2024-04-22 09:41:14 评论:0
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导语

在加密史册的视角中,2023 的 Web3 风波无奇。继 2022 年熊市见底,加密世界在 2023 按部就班的渡过了牛市筑基。但这一年 AI 的巨大进展以及由此带来的威胁论,却把 Web3 挟裹进了史诗级别的宏大篇章。早在比特币之初,人们就在憧憬区块链可以为智能网络建立秩序;及至后来人们认识到 AI 与区块链 /Web3 会在元宇宙风云际会,但是也仅仅是憧憬;直到 2023 年 ChatGPT 的火爆引发的 AI 威胁论与算力治理问题,这才倒逼人们开始进入 AI 与 Web3 结合的落地实践。

我们可以以此判断,2023 年元宇宙建构已经混沌初开,元宇宙奇点已发生。在这个语境下,我们正迎来一个必将载入史册的元宇宙建构元年和加密牛市周期。2024,尽管物理世界风云变幻,但人类向着数字社会进程的机遇汹涌而至。

01 融合:TradeFi 与 DeFi 的资产市场

2023 年被称为 RWA 元年,可为什么这一年的 RWA 市场不温不火?我们从回答这个问题开始:因为 RWA 市场早期的介质以国债、黄金以及美元为主,这些资产投资回报相对稳定,涨跌幅度有限,甚至美元以稳定币形式介入,TradeFi 资产 RWA 化并于加密经济 DeFi 市场融合的操作空间有限。

而随着比特币 ETF 在华尔街的成功,更多的具有资产投资回报率的 TradeFi 资产,比如股票以及期货等传统金融市场的衍生品会通过 RWA 进入加密市场。以贝莱德为例,他们正在研究如何把他们手中的大量 TradeFi 资产 RWA 化以融入加密市场。给大家一点数据,帮助大家感受到这意味着什么——根据贝莱德 2023 Q3 的财报,贝莱德的管理规模在 9.1 万亿美元,此前我们非常熟悉的比特币大户灰度的管理规模是几百亿美元级别,其中比特币信托 200 多亿美元。

所以,单纯以目前比特币为核心的加密市场,对于贝莱德来讲根本不够看。在比特币 ETF 进入传统金融市场之后,把更多 TradeFi 资产带入加密市场才值得贝莱德一玩。因此,可以判断 2024 年的 RWA 市场会得到巨量释放。

比特币 ETF 把比特币带入传统金融市场,为加密市场带来资金;RWA 把传统金融市场的资产带入加密市场,为加密市场带来优质资产。因此,我们乐观预期,2024 年加密市场总体量突破十万亿美元是大概率事件,比特币价格达到十万美元也会在这一年发生(友情提醒投资者朋友们,本文不构成投资建议,请根据自己判断决策)。

但这一切只是开始,我们跳过对这一轮牛市周期的叙述,配合全文主题,直接展望未来十数年间元宇宙建构过程中物理世界一半以上的优质资产会藉由 RWA 融入加密世界;同样,以比特币 ETF 为代表的原生加密资产也会与传统世界金融体系融合,为元宇宙早期居民提供更多样的财富权益与资产管理路径。

值得多提一句的是,有人担心加密市场在这轮牛市过后会陷入互联网发展过程中遇到的十四年熊市周期。先不谈这两件事情是否具有可比性和可参考性,退一万步讲,即使市场周期有其内在规律性,但我们认为这仍会被上述叙事化解。互联网带来的巨大的社会变化的产业经济能力是无法与今天我们所处的区块链 /Web3 带来的社会变化与经济能量匹敌的。

02 回归:公链性能、跨链互通与存储等基础生态

经历了 2023 年底铭文的洗礼,加密世界的人们已经认识到当前的公链等基础设施还是个弟弟。比如拿到几亿融资的 Layer2 也一样受不住铭文的洗礼,更不用说其对应用生态的支持。2024 年无疑会是新一轮的公链跨链互通与存储等基础生态回归年(这些努力将成为 AI 与 Web3/ 区块链在元宇宙交汇的基础)。

比如 Layer2 已经在考虑升级与破局——如果你花费巨资搞的存储与扩展不足以吸引应用开发者,那么,是不是自己要反思一下,往前走一步,搞一个应用生态,让好的应用在这儿可以更好的生长,让用户可以在这儿会有更好的应用体验。

比如意图、模块化以及链抽象,在前述背景下,这些都会在 2023 年初步实践的基础上,在 2024 年进入量变到质变的效应。值得一提的是我们曾经对意图交易进行案例探析,intent-centric 新叙事想象空间巨大甚至无处下手,理性的开发者和加密生态 Builder 已经把心思放在项目大规模应用、采用的路径上。

比如 NFT 进化到 ERC404,它为加密经济与元宇宙建构带来了优质的基础要件。它的作用首先是赋能金融流动性,不仅体现在头像类 NFT/PFT 市场,还会在 RWA 市场发挥作用;另外,它可以与 DID 结合,在 NFT 与赋能 DID 的身份、贡献与荣誉、资产之间的关系之后,404 可以帮其做分解,让 DID 贡献相应的地位、荣誉、权益与资产可以剥离。

以及 DePin 概念正在兴起,比如主推欧美市场的 AI+DePin 项目 Peaq 已经上了主网,现在每周 onboard 一个新的世界 500 强作为合作伙伴,它在 Messari Depin 报告里也作为重点 layer1 被 map 进去了。DePin 会是 AI 与 Web3 结合的重要突破口和基础设施,此外,与此相关的更为基础的网络带宽等是否可以与区块链结合,也会在这一轮周期得以见证。

关于公链赛道本身,我们期待这一轮周期会有新的公链生态逐渐繁荣,但是以 2024 年叙事视角来看,最主流的还是以太坊生态和比特币生态:

以太坊生态:除了按部就班的 Layer2 与应用发展的可能性,我们更大的期待在于 TradeFi (传统金融)带来的增量市场。大概率来讲,我们在第一部分讨论的 TradeFi (传统金融)RWA 化进入加密市场的路径会选择以太坊,比如前述要把资产上链的贝莱德,他们要自己搞 Layer2,大概率还是会选择以太坊。

比特币生态:早在以太坊生态的 DeFi 时期,人们就在想象「BTC+DeFi」的巨大市场空间。这一切在 2024 会理想照进现实。我们对比特币生态的期待不应该是在以太坊搞过再搞一遍,而是加密市场体量最大的 BTC 与 DeFi 结合带来的开拓性市场空间。目前市场已经存在试图让资产在二层更好地流通、更好地发行以及获得更多的杠杆的实践。

加密世界基础生态的跃进,才会为 AI 与 Web3 风云际会提供可能性。

03 迭代:AI 与 Web3 引领的应用市场

如前所述,Web3 尚未进入应用时代,很大程度上是 Web3 应用开发受制于公链门槛。一些有很好的的 Web3 迭代 Web2 应用场景的实践都因公链性能、协议门槛而搁浅。但是打开 Web3 应用市场禁锢缺口的正是「AI+Web3」的实践。

当然「AI+Web3」仍然受制于基础设施生态,且 AI on-chain 是一个前沿命题,但是这件事件的进展取决于取决开发团队对 AI on-chain 的理解。相较于 Web3 社交、链游等赛道的开发团队,我们有理由相信 AI 开发团队对于 AI on-chain 的理解以及实践会更加深入并具有前沿带动性。

甚至,我们可以进一步想象,基于大模型的 AI 生态和基于公链的 Web3 生态在这个时代的实践,很有可能会是未来它们在元宇宙交汇时的底座。因此,乐观预期,2024 年会出现若干个 10 亿 U 以上的「AI+Web3」项目,并因此带动加密世界进入 Web3 应用时代,Web3 社交、链游以及我们所处的 Web3 媒介等赛道的应用市场也会在这一轮周期活跃,甚至出现专门服务「AI+Web3」的功能,比如致力于帮助企业接受加密货币付款的 MugglePay,已经将 2024 年的发展重点从电商转向了 AI 及游戏领域,并面向 AI 服务商推出了独创的订阅式收款(Web3 subscription)功能;还有为 AI 提供数据存储与精准推送的 StreamAi 致力于成为「Web3 网络、太空星际网络」的最大的云服务商,以及面向「程序、机器人」的 ChatGPT。

但是,我们需要理清这轮周期活跃的「AI+Web3」与我们曾经提出的「AI+Web3/ 区块链=文明以止」的不同。本轮周期「AI+Web3」只是应用场景的集合,可以在「互联网 +」的惯性迭代逻辑里理解。但是,未来十数年间甚至数十年间,不断提高生产力的 AI 与图灵完备的生产关系乃至社会关系变革的 Web3 在元宇宙风云际会,人类进入数字化进阶的新时代。

当然,这一切要有赖于 2024 年这些活跃的「AI+Web3」项目的实践。

结语

这大概会是以比特币为周期的最后一轮牛熊迭代,这大概也会是载入史册的一轮牛市周期。自此,Web3/ 区块链为 AI/ 智能网络建立秩序开始落地,以此带动的加密世界原生资产市场也会快速扩大;与此同时,物理世界资产数字化(RWA)也进入快速通道,加密市场资产会逐渐超过传统物理市场的金融资产市场。

在此基础上,人们对元宇宙的想象开始落地,元宇宙建构的两大主线(AI 与 Web3)次第展开并终将交汇在元宇宙。最新的消息是,Sora 的生成能力惊人,OPENAI 推动了元宇宙建构一大步。但加密世界 Web3 也并没有落后,现在的制约因素是更为基础的硬件设备和网络设施,尤其是网络设施,一个致命性问题是华语世界的用户敢相信中国移动吗?当人类精英在布局事关未来的科技高地,中国移动还在忙着消耗用户流量来换取更多用户话费。期待这类问题会有解,用 Web3 世界的方法。

2024 值得期待的还有很多。共勉!


The storm of the introduction in the history of encryption is not surprising. The bear market bottomed out in the following year, and the encryption world gradually passed through the bull market. However, the great progress of this year and the threat theory brought about by it have wrapped it into an epic chapter. As early as the beginning of Bitcoin, people were looking forward to the blockchain to establish order for intelligent networks, and later people realized that it would meet with the blockchain in the meta-universe, but it was only looking forward to the threat theory and computing power governance caused by the popularity of 2000. Forcing people to start the practice of entering and combining, we can judge that the construction of the meta-universe has been chaotic and the singularity of the meta-universe has occurred in this context. We are welcoming the first year of the meta-universe construction and the encrypted bull market cycle that will surely go down in history. Although the physical world is changing, the opportunity for human beings to move towards the digital society is surging and the asset market year is called the first year. Why is the market tepid this year? We started by answering this question because of the early market. Our media are mainly treasury bonds, gold and US dollars. The return on investment of these assets is relatively stable, and the fluctuation range is limited. Even the operating space of the US dollar in the form of stable currency is limited, and with the success of Bitcoin on Wall Street, more assets with return on investment, such as stocks and futures, will enter the encryption market. Take BlackRock as an example, they are studying how to turn a large number of assets in their hands into the encryption market. Give you some data to help you feel what this means. According to BlackRock's financial report, BlackRock's management scale is trillions of dollars. Before that, the management scale of the big bitcoin household that we are very familiar with was tens of billions of dollars, of which the bitcoin trust was more than billions of dollars. Therefore, the encryption market with the current bitcoin as the core is simply not enough for BlackRock. It is worthwhile for BlackRock to bring more assets into the encryption market after Bitcoin enters the traditional financial market, so it can be judged. In 2008, the market will get a huge release of bitcoin, bringing bitcoin into the traditional financial market and bringing funds to the encryption market, bringing assets from the traditional financial market to the encryption market and bringing high-quality assets to the encryption market. Therefore, we are optimistic that the total volume of the encryption market will exceed 10 trillion US dollars in 2008, which is a high probability event, and the price of bitcoin will reach 100,000 US dollars. Friendship will also occur in this year to remind investors and friends that this article does not constitute investment advice, so please make decisions according to your own judgment, but all this is just the beginning. The narrative of this bull market cycle is in line with the theme of the full text, and directly looks forward to the next decade or so. More than half of the high-quality assets in the physical world will be integrated into the encrypted world, and the original encrypted assets represented by Bitcoin will also be integrated with the traditional world financial system, providing more diversified wealth rights and asset management paths for the early residents of the meta-universe. It is worth mentioning that some people worry that the encrypted market will fall into the 14-year bear encountered in the development of the Internet after this bull market. Let's not talk about whether these two things are comparable and referential. Let's take a ten thousand steps back. Even if the market cycle has its inherent regularity, we think it will still be resolved by the above narrative. The industrial economic ability of the Internet can't match the social changes and economic energy brought by the blockchain we are in today. The basic ecology such as cross-chain interoperability and storage has experienced the baptism of inscriptions at the end of the year, and people in the encrypted world have realized the current public chain. Infrastructure is still a younger brother, for example, those who get hundreds of millions of financing can't stand the baptism of inscriptions, not to mention its support for application ecology. Undoubtedly, the year will be a new round of basic ecological return year, such as public chain cross-chain interoperability and storage. These efforts will become the basis for the intersection with blockchain in the meta-universe. For example, upgrading and breaking are already under consideration. If the storage and expansion that you spend a lot of money on is not enough to attract application developers, do you want to reflect on taking a step forward and making an application ecology? Applications can grow better here, so that users can have a better application experience here, such as intention modularity and chain abstraction. Under the above background, these effects will change from quantitative to qualitative on the basis of preliminary practice in 2000. It is worth mentioning that we have conducted a case study on intention trading, and the developers and encryption ecology with huge space for new narrative imagination have focused on the path adopted by large-scale application of the project, such as the evolution to encryption economy. It has brought high-quality basic elements with the construction of the meta-universe. Its function is firstly to empower financial liquidity, which is not only reflected in the avatar market, but also plays a role in the market. In addition, it can be combined with the relationship between the empowered identity contribution and the honor assets, which can help it decompose the contribution, so that the corresponding status, honor rights and assets can be stripped off, and the concept is emerging. For example, the project that mainly promotes the European and American markets has been on the main network, and now a new world power is a partner every week. It is in the report. It will also be an important breakthrough and infrastructure for integration. In addition, whether the more basic network bandwidth related to it can be combined with blockchain will also be witnessed in this round. Regarding the public chain track itself, we expect that there will be a new public chain ecology in this round, but from the perspective of annual narrative, the most mainstream ones are Ethereum Ecology and Bitcoin Ecology. In addition to the possibility of step-by-step and application development, our greater expectation lies in transmission. In terms of the incremental market brought by unified finance, the path of traditional financialization entering the encryption market that we discussed in the first part will choose Ethereum, such as BlackRock, which wants to chain assets as mentioned above. Will they choose Ethereum bitcoin ecology? People have imagined the huge market space as early as the period of Ethereum ecology. All this will come true in the future. Our expectation for bitcoin ecology should not be done again in Ethereum, but the encryption market is the largest. The pioneering market space brought about by the combination of and, at present, the market already has the practice of trying to make assets circulate better on the second floor, issue better and gain more leverage. The leap in the basic ecology of the encrypted world will provide the possibility for the meeting with Fengyun. As mentioned above, the application market has not yet entered the application era. To a large extent, application development is subject to the threshold of public chain, and some practices with good iterative application scenarios are stranded because of the threshold of public chain performance agreement. However, it is the practice that opens the gap in the application market that is still subject to the infrastructure ecology and is a cutting-edge proposition. But this incident is still a frontier topic. 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台

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