比特币牛市才开始

币圈资讯 阅读:38 2024-04-22 09:12:30 评论:0
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暴涨才开始

最近,Matrixport 发布新一期报告称,减半事件从来都不是周期的顶峰,比特币反弹可能才刚刚开始。

其在报告中表示:“虽然减半即将到来(2024 年 4 月 19 日/20 日),但减半从来就不是周期顶部。相反减半意味着挖矿奖励减半,比特币牛市才刚刚过半。诚然现在杠杆率很高,仓位和资金费率过度增长,但在短期内,涨势也可能会持续。

我们正处于比特币牛市中,现在最关键是需要保持敞口(多头头寸),直到这波涨势最终跟随抛物线的走势并在其压力下崩塌。

加密货币牛市超买状况往往比交易者预期的持续时间更长,并且当价格应该回调时,超买信号往往会吸引更多买家,而不是呈现均值回归,价格将以抛物线式上涨。

根据Tether 对比特币价格影响的模型,估计 10-200 亿美元的 ETF 流入可能会对比特币价格产生巨大影响。估计每新增 50 亿美元资金流入,比特币价格就会上涨 15%。

此外,比特币现货 ETF与黄金 ETF资产配置的转变可能仍处于早期阶段。”

近期,Matrixport分析师Markus近期在BlockBeats专访中表示,今年比特币可能达12.5万美元,牛市或持续到明年2月至9月。

其补充道:”我们去年 7 月看到的一个指标是,当比特币在一年内首次创下一年新高时,会有 300% 的反弹,所以这个数据也可以推出 125,000 美元。去年我们判断的很准,今年可能会保守一些,比特币可能在今年年底或明年达到 125,000 美元。"

不但如此,Markus还认为本轮牛市或持续到明年2月至9月,当前牛市仅到一半。

此前2月24日,Matrixport 发布新一期报告称,BTC 在 2024 年 3 月达到 63,000 美元的目标,目前已经达成。

比特币减半

不止Matrixport看多后市,据CoinDesk报道,一些交易员表示,乐观情绪、机构购买需求以及与比特币减半事件相关的历史收益,正在推动该资产在3月份突破69,000美元的历史高点。

下一次减半预计在四月中旬,只要需求保持不变或增加,公开市场上新比特币的数量就会减少,价格往往会上涨。

历史价格走势未来可能不会重演,但对反弹的预期可能会促使投资者对该资产投入巨额押注。

Hectic Labs首席执行官Bryan Legend表示:“这种预期总是会导致购买活动增加,投资者预计供应减少将推高价格,而减半前的反弹将有助于新的牛市,带来新的看涨情绪。”

此外,Bitget Research表示,距离比特币减半还有54天,加上美联储年中降息的预期,比特币价格在5万美元有支撑位,3月份可能会波动创历史新高。

ETF资金持续流入

此外,也有很多分析师认为ETF对比特币有潜在巨大影响。

根据资产管理公司灰度(Grayscale)的分析报告,比特币供需平衡的基本变化可能会对加密货币的价格产生更大影响,尤其是即将到来的减半事件。

从历史上看,减半事件之后通常会出现价格上涨的周期。然而,一个新因素(即 ETF)也将影响比特币在今年 4 月的减半事件中的表现。该报告指出:“除了总体积极的链上基本面之外,比特币的市场结构在减半后对价格有利。”

灰度报告指出,目前每个区块新币发行量(挖矿奖励)为 6.25 枚比特币,按照 43,000 美元的价格计算,约为每年 140 亿美元。换句话说,为了维持当前的价格,同期需要产生价值 140 亿美元的买入压力。“减半后,这些需求将减少一半:每个区块新币发行量为 3.125 枚比特币,相当于每年减少到 70 亿美元,有效减轻了抛售压力。”

减半后每个区块挖矿奖励将减少至 3.125 枚比特币,为了应对成本压力,矿工通常会卖出更多的比特币库存,从而增加供应并压低价格。

灰度表示,华尔街最近推出的 9 个比特币现货 ETF 产品可能会“作为对矿工卖压的对冲力量”。该报告表示:“比特币 ETF 可能会大幅吸收抛售压力,潜在地通过提供稳定的新需求来源来重塑比特币的市场结构,对价格有利。”

2月21日,彭博分析师Eric Balchunas在X平台发文表示,今日VanEck比特币现货ETF(HODL)的交易量激增至2.58亿美元,较其日均交易量暴增14倍。

他指出,与通常由单一大额投资者推动的交易量激增不同,此次涨幅背后是32,000笔个人交易,是其平均水平的60倍。

比特币现货ETF BTCW当日交易量达到1.54亿美元,是其平均交易量的12倍,交易额更是其资产总值的25倍。此次交易涉及23,000笔个别交易,与2月17日仅221笔交易形成鲜明对比。

Bitwise首席投资官Matt Hougan在接受CNBC采访时解释说:“我认为几个月后会比特币ETF有一波更大的浪潮,因为我们开始看到主要的大型经纪公司开始有动作。

因此,我们将看到下一波机构资本即将到来。”他补充说,对比特币ETF的第一波兴趣主要来自零售、对冲基金和独立金融顾问。他将ETF称为比特币的“IPO时刻”。

写在最后

可以说,减半事件是比特币牛市的重要催化剂,历史上每次减半后都会出现价格上涨的周期,而下一次减半预计在2024年4月中旬到来,届时比特币的供应将减少一半,有利于价格上涨。

而另外一方面,ETF资金流入是比特币市场的新因素,可能会大幅吸收矿工的抛售压力,提供稳定的新需求来源,重塑比特币的市场结构。


    The surge has just begun. Recently, a new report was released, saying that the halving event has never been the peak of the cycle, and the bitcoin rebound may have just begun. In the report, it said that although halving is coming, it has never been the top of the cycle. On the contrary, halving means halving the mining reward. The bitcoin bull market is just over half. Admittedly, the leverage ratio is very high now, and the position and capital rate are excessively increasing, but the rally may continue in the short term. Now we are in a bitcoin bull market, and the most important thing is to keep our exposure. Long positions until this wave of rally finally follows the parabolic trend and collapses under its pressure. The bull market overbought situation of cryptocurrency often lasts longer than traders expected, and when the price should be adjusted back, the overbought signal often attracts more buyers instead of showing a mean regression. The price will rise parabolically. According to the model that affects the price of bitcoin, it is estimated that the inflow of $100 million may have a huge impact on the price of bitcoin. It is estimated that every additional $100 million will flow into the price of bitcoin. In addition, the transformation of bitcoin spot and gold asset allocation may still be in the early stage. Recently, analysts said in an exclusive interview that bitcoin may reach a bull market of 10,000 US dollars this year or last until next month. It added that one of the indicators we saw last month was that bitcoin would rebound when it hit a new high for the first time in a year, so this data can also be introduced into US dollars. Last year, we judged that it might be conservative. Bitcoin may reach US dollars at the end of this year or next year. In this way, it is believed that this bull market may last until next year, and the current bull market is only halfway through. A new report was released on March, saying that the goal of reaching the US dollar in September has been achieved. It is reported that some traders are optimistic that the demand for institutional purchases and the historical gains related to the bitcoin halving event are pushing the asset to break through the historical high of the US dollar in January, and the next halving is expected to be in mid-April as long as the demand remains unchanged or the new ratio is increased in the open market. The number of special coins will decrease, and the price will tend to rise. The historical price trend may not repeat itself in the future, but the expectation of rebound may prompt investors to make huge bets on the asset. The CEO said that this expectation will always lead to an increase in purchasing activities. Investors expect that the decrease in supply will push up the price, and the rebound before halving will help the new bull market bring new bullish sentiment. In addition, it is said that there are still days before bitcoin is halved, and the expected price of bitcoin will be $10,000 in the middle of the year. In addition, many analysts believe that it has a potential huge impact on Bitcoin. According to the gray analysis of asset management companies, the basic changes in the balance between supply and demand of Bitcoin may have a greater impact on the price of cryptocurrency, especially the upcoming halving event. Historically, after the halving event, there is usually a cycle of price increase. However, a new factor will also affect the performance of Bitcoin in this month's halving event, the newspaper reported. It is pointed out that in addition to the overall positive fundamentals on the chain, the market structure of bitcoin is beneficial to the price after halving. The gray report points out that at present, the new currency circulation in each block is rewarded as one bitcoin, which is about $ billion per year according to the price of US dollars. In other words, in order to maintain the current price in the same period, it is necessary to generate buying pressure worth $ billion. After halving, these demands will be reduced by half, and the new currency circulation in each block will be reduced to $ billion per year, effectively reducing the selling pressure. After halving, the reward for mining in each block will be reduced to bitcoin. In order to cope with the cost pressure, miners usually sell more bitcoin stocks, thus increasing the supply and lowering the price gray scale. It indicates that a bitcoin spot product recently launched by Wall Street may serve as a hedging force against the selling pressure of miners. The report indicates that bitcoin may greatly absorb the selling pressure and potentially reshape the market structure of bitcoin by providing a stable new source of demand, which is beneficial to the price. Bloomberg analysts posted a table on the platform on March. Today, the spot transaction volume of Bitcoin surged to $ billion, which is twice the daily average transaction volume. He pointed out that unlike the surge in transaction volume usually driven by a single large investor, the increase was behind a personal transaction, which was twice its average level. The spot transaction volume of Bitcoin reached $ billion that day, which was twice its average transaction volume, and the transaction volume was twice its total asset value. This transaction involved several individual transactions, which was in sharp contrast to only one transaction on the month and day. In an interview, the Chief Investment Officer explained that I think several. There will be a bigger wave of bitcoin in the next month, because we are beginning to see the major large brokerage companies start to move, so we will see the next wave of institutional capital coming soon. He added that the first wave of interest in bitcoin mainly came from retail hedge funds and independent financial consultants, and he wrote the moment called bitcoin at the end. It can be said that the halving event is an important catalyst for the bitcoin bull market. In history, there will be a cycle of price increase after every halving, and the next halving is expected to be in mid-June. By then, the supply of bitcoin will be reduced by half, which is conducive to the price increase. On the other hand, capital inflow is a new factor in the bitcoin market, which may greatly absorb the selling pressure of miners, provide a stable new source of demand and reshape the market structure of bitcoin. 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台

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