币圈过山车：从抄底到踏空再到重新入场 我经历了什么？
作者：NingNing，独立研究员 来源：X，@0xNing0x
在BTC突破64000后，我遵守交易计划认输重新买回了仓位，而狗狗币这两天的大涨也弥补了我踏空的利润损失。
但我目前仍然处在硬直和晕眩状态中。比特币这波从$52000~$64000的疯狂上涨，对我来说似乎更像是一场黑天鹅，把原有的交易计划突突地稀碎，相信市场里的很多人都有这个感受吧。
昨天跟社区小伙伴在投研周会上经过一番深入探讨后，我有3个新的判断，分享出来供大家指正：
1⃣使用OpenBB分解这波上涨的因子之后，发现这波上涨核心驱动因子是Cycle Trend（长周期趋势，4年一轮的货币周期和比特币减产周期）和Cycle Component（短周期趋势，年内季节性周期）。具体分析如下：
--回测历史数据，美国经济周期在确认衰退前，风险资产会经历一波炒作热潮。而当前的美国经济周期正好处在前衰退阶段，历史再次重现，风险资产中大类资产纳斯达克指数创下新高，BTC强势大涨。
--季节性因子。没什么好说的，几乎每年都有春季行情；
--比特币现货ETF通过之后，美股热钱涌入这个新资产品种。比特币现货ETF过去7天的净流入，虽不及前一周，但仍然净流入21.5亿美元。
2⃣这波上涨行情的性质， 是Pre-Bull（牛前行情）的尾部行情，而不是真正的大牛市主升浪。尾部行情的典型特征之一，是MeMe币的集体暴涨和一级市场的突然性Fomo情绪传染。
3⃣Glassnode的链上指数显示市场已经进入全面投机状态，但这种非理性市场状态的持续时间可能会大大超越理性主义投资者的预期。根据已知的信息，当下这场泡沫化进程，很可能持续到今年6月美联储正式降息前。所以与其争辩市场有没有泡沫化，不如思考一下如何构建投资组合从这场泡沫中分一杯羹。我们不能成为赢了观点辩论却没赚到钱的人。
The author's independent researcher source After the breakthrough, I obeyed the trading plan and threw in the towel and bought back my position, and the surge in dogecoin in the past two days also made up for the loss of my profits. But I am still in a state of rigidity and dizziness. The crazy rise of Bitcoin seems more like a black swan to me. I believe many people in the market have this feeling. After some in-depth discussions with my community partners at the investment research week meeting yesterday, I have a new judgment. Share it for your correction. After decomposing the factors of this wave of rise, it is found that the core driving factors of this wave of rise are the long-term trend, the annual currency cycle and the bitcoin production reduction cycle and the short-term trend. The specific analysis of the seasonal cycle during the year is as follows: the historical data are measured back. The US economic cycle will experience a wave of hype before confirming the recession, and the current US economic cycle is just in the pre-recession stage. The Nasdaq index of large-scale assets in risk assets has once again reappeared, hitting a new high. There is nothing to say about the seasonal factors of the surge. Almost every year, there is a spring market. After the bitcoin spot passes, hot money from US stocks pours into this new asset variety. Although the net inflow of bitcoin spot in the past day is not as good as that of the previous week, it still has a net inflow of hundreds of millions of dollars. The nature of this wave of rising market is the tail market of the bull market rather than the real bull market. One of the typical characteristics of the tail market is the collective surge of coins and the sudden emotional contagion in the primary market. The online index shows that the market has entered a comprehensive investment. Machine state, but the duration of this irrational market state may greatly exceed the expectations of rational investors. According to the known information, the current bubble process is likely to last until the Federal Reserve officially cuts interest rates this month. Therefore, instead of arguing whether the market is in a bubble, we should think about how to build a portfolio and take a share of this bubble. We can't be people who won the debate but didn't make any money. 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台
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