新高之际 重新审视市场

The author's blockchain Blue Ocean updated an article on the market last month. At that time, the view was that there was a great possibility that the economic recession would turn into a crisis. Then, some judgments standing three months later before some changes have taken place in both the external environment and the market need to be corrected in time. Today is the first day of the month to re-examine the market. I will try my best to explain my views with simple arguments. The macro-economic and monetary policy views on the US economic recession remain unchanged. The previous article thinks that there will be a recession in the United States this year or next year. At present, Britain and Japan have all fallen into a technical recession. China has actually entered Europe with one foot. Southeast Asian countries are having a hard time, and so is the United States. At present, there are hidden dangers in banking, commercial real estate and credit in the United States. Look for generals. Compared with other countries, the employment data in the United States is relatively strong, and the manufacturing backflow has begun to show results. Therefore, several key indicators of the American economy look relatively good, but with the high interest rate, The expectation that the interest rate cut will last for months or even months may fail. Before the market expected that the United States would start to cut interest rates in June, I also thought that the Fed might cut interest rates preventively, but judging from the published monthly data and the speeches of Fed officials, it is highly probable that it will not cut interest rates even every month. At present, the Fed is worried that the anti-inflation indecisiveness will turn into stagflation in the decade, and that excessive interest rate hikes will have an impact on the economy. At present, the former is more in line with the other reasons. From a theoretical point of view, no big economy has been blown up by the US interest rate hike. The goal of the United States has not yet been achieved. The whole world is struggling. The first quarter should be safer. At the end of last year, I think there may be obvious crisis signals this year or quarter. Thanks to the bright performance of NVIDIA and other technology companies, it has played a good role in leading the mood of the US stock market. Small-cap stocks have also begun to recover. The market has somewhat ignored interest rate cuts and failed to favor medium and long-term US debt, and the Fed seems to believe. The hidden dangers of loans and real estate have been paid close attention to. It is possible to adopt tools and measures like this to deal with possible potential crises, and even if they appear, they may be solved quickly. To sum up, the information given so far is relatively healthy, whether it is economic data or financial market data. Here, let's take a step by step and temporarily judge whether the macro-level of the first quarter is a safe period. It is said that residents' excess savings will be exhausted, and there are all kinds of doubts about the falsification and whitewashing of American data. It's all reasonable, but we can't make a bet based on subjective guess or the published data. Second, when writing at the end of last year, the encryption market clearly stated that it was already a bull market. At that time, there were more than 10,000 bitcoins. It should not be questioned whether it was a bull market or a bear market. What are the characteristics of the narrative logic of the current market? The current round of market is driven from the end of last year, and after passing, except for the gray-scale sales in the first few days, it is a net inflow, which proves that the off-exchange funds are constantly ending. The risk preference of leek being beaten by bear market in 2000 is conservative, and many people are afraid to buy new funds, so they don't have these concerns. Moreover, the assets managed by these asset management institutions can be pulled to a very high price if they leak a little at will, so we can have higher expectations for the price of bitcoin in this round of market, and the capital spillover is limited. This market is also obviously divided, because at present, only the funds that pass the market can be bought, but they can not be converted into the purchasing power of other varieties. We can see that in many cases, the shanzhai, which stands out and performs well in this bull market, is usually driven by hot spots and institutional market makers. In the past, as long as all coins were started to blossom everywhere, there was almost no speculation in the market. Although this was the case in every bull market, in the previous bull market, the old coins might have a good increase or even a new high under the condition of capital spillover. In this bull market, we saw that the capital spillover was extremely limited, and new coins and hot spots emerged one after another every day, which had absorbed a lot of funds. A large number of old coins are still lying at the bottom, barely moving, and they are still losing more than the high point of the last round of bull market. Perhaps those who are deep-set will never have a chance to untie themselves, give up their illusions and recognize the reality. Maybe the new coins will double and the old coins will rise, and the market will become more specialized. Since the last round of bull market, more and more professional institutions and personnel have participated in the market. No matter the team's financial strength, resources and technology investment and research ability, the small leek can't compare with it. Except for the investment in the primary market, the transaction in the secondary market and even the participation in The living space and return rate of the small company will be continuously compressed. It will be better for us to participate in the sub-sectors that some institutions are reluctant to participate in, such as pledging early project interaction and avoiding direct fighting with institutions in the secondary market. The valuation of the project is generally high every year, and the market is full of funds in the bull market, so the expectations for the project are high, so the valuation is also high. The secondary market has a market value of hundreds of millions or even billions, so the market wants to buy it in the secondary market at this stage. It is still difficult to reach ten times the currency, and once the adjustment is started or the upward trend ends, the adjustment range will not be small. As far as possible, we still choose some certain tracks, such as bitcoin eco-chain tour modularization. Each track chooses a leading project to participate in or deeply cultivate a track. It is also a good choice to thoroughly participate in a track research in early projects to gain excess returns. We can't cut the meat and change positions when we see that it has gone up today, but it will go up and change positions frequently tomorrow. Finally, we can only change positions. Nothing is narrated. If it is said that the continuous inflow of capital into the encryption market is the main axis of this bull market, then it is the largest sector in the market. The seven giants of narrative technology are supporting the US stock market. The most eye-catching performance in the US stock market is that NVIDIA has benefited from the poor performance of Tesla Apple and other stock prices in the narrative. No matter whether you think that the bubble will eventually burst like the Internet in, it is the main rising logic of the market at present. As long as the momentum of the US stock market does not end the story of the encryption market. It won't end. This is the most certain logical conclusion. I still think that the United States will fall into recession in the fourth quarter of this year or early next year. The mood of the financial market will always swing between extreme optimism and pessimism like a pendulum. When the economy is exposed, the market will also become pessimistic. At that time, it will definitely drive the risk market to fall. It is no problem to prepare for the worst, but don't bet on the crisis that hasn't happened too early. Wait for a definite signal before making a decision. Before the real big crisis breaks out, there will be various signs. At present, when the external environment is still relatively safe, we 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台

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