比特币 VS 房地产:危机时期哪个是更好的保值手段?

币圈资讯 阅读:36 2024-04-22 09:06:19 评论:0
美化布局示例

欧易(OKX)最新版本

【遇到注册下载问题请加文章最下面的客服微信】永久享受返佣20%手续费!

APP下载   全球官网 大陆官网

币安(Binance)最新版本

币安交易所app【遇到注册下载问题请加文章最下面的客服微信】永久享受返佣20%手续费!

APP下载   官网地址

火币HTX最新版本

火币老牌交易所【遇到注册下载问题请加文章最下面的客服微信】永久享受返佣20%手续费!

APP下载   官网地址

文章作者:LEON WANKUM 文章编译:Block unicorn

引言

我们生活在一个高度数字化的世界,但大多数人仍然使用实物商品来存储价值。世界上最常用的价值储存手段是房地产。据统计,全球财富的约 67% 由房地产持有。然而,最近宏观经济和地缘政治逆风凸显了房地产作为实物价值储存手段的弱点。如果爆发战争怎么办?如果用作保值手段的房屋被毁坏了会发生什么?

在德语中,房地产翻译为“Immobilie”,字面意思是“不动”。拥有房地产会产生当地依赖性,这可能会在冲突和激进化不断加剧的世界中带来问题。如果发生战争,您不能随身携带房地产,而且很容易被摧毁。

这听起来像是一个反乌托邦,但我相信,如果你认真对待长期财富管理,你应该考虑最坏的情况和可能的全球影响。

战争与财富的破坏

进入21世纪以来,战争给人类造成的损失从未如此之大。去年,超过 238,000 人在冲突中丧生。叙利亚、苏丹、乌克兰、巴勒斯坦、以色列、黎巴嫩——全球冲突根源正在增加。其中一些地区已经遭受了大规模破坏。那里已经没有更多的财产了,其中存储的价值实际上已经蒸发了。除了战争带来的痛苦和悲痛之外,很难想象人们还要忍受多少经济上的挫折。

尽管有一些例外,例如日本,房地产在世界各地都被用作价值储存手段。随着破坏威胁的加剧,数百万甚至数十亿人的劳动成果受到威胁。除了通货膨胀和税收之外,物质财富的破坏历来是对整体繁荣的最大威胁之一。早在古代,军队就残酷地掠夺城市并摧毁居民的财物。

物理与数字价值存储

幸运的是,有了比特币,就可以解决存储在实物资产中的财富遭到破坏的威胁。作为一种数字化的、近乎完美的移动价值储存手段,它难以销毁且易于移动。

2009 年比特币的推出挑战了房地产作为人类首选价值储存手段的角色,因为它代表了一种更好的选择,可以让全世界的人们相对轻松地保护自己的财富。

您可以购买非常小面额的比特币,最小的为 1 聪(比特币的 1/100,000,000),价格低至 ≈ 0.0002616 美元(2024 年 2 月 12 日)。安全存储它所需要的只是一台没有互联网接入的计算机和一个 BIP39 密钥生成器,或者只需花费 50 美元购买一个硬件钱包。如果您需要搬迁,您可以记住 12 个单词,即钱包的备份(助记词),并“带走”您的比特币。

数字化

数字化优化了几乎所有的保值功能。比特币它更稀有、更容易获得、维护成本更低、流动性更强,最重要的是,它可以让您在危机时期转移您的财富。

比特币是真正属于你的财富。随着世界各地战争的威胁迫在眉睫,我认为将财富持有在比特币等数字资产中比持有房地产、黄金或艺术品等实物资产更好,因为这些资产很容易被征税、销毁或没收。

财产没收

如果我们回顾历史,很明显,实体价值储存使人们容易受到政府过度干预的影响。一个历史例子是纳粹德国对犹太人的剥夺。不幸的是,这些镇压并不是历史上的孤例。这种事经常发生。正如迈克尔·塞勒喜欢指出的那样,菲德尔·卡斯特罗上台后,许多人在古巴失去了财产。

这些惨痛的历史教训强调了保护比特币等数字资产财富的重要性,事实证明,没收、征税或销毁比特币是具有挑战性的,而且它还易于转移。

宏观经济变化

此外,宏观经济格局的变化可能会导致房地产迅速贬值。 通常,房地产是通过贷款购买的。 因此,利率上升会导致融资承受能力下降,导致需求减少,从而导致房地产价格下降。 我们可以看到这种情况现在在全球范围内上演,利率上升和需求减少的结合导致了全球房地产价值的下降。

比特币 VS 房地产

与房地产相比,比特币受传统法币金融体系问题的影响较小,因为它独立于系统之外运行。利率、央行决策和任意政府行为等变量对比特币的影响有限,价格主要取决于其供应量、发行时间表和采用率。

比特币遵循通货紧缩模型,意味着随着时间的推移,其供应量逐渐减少,直到 2140 年达到硬性限制。每四年,比特币区块奖励减半一次(Block unicorn注释:比如,现在矿工打包一个区块奖励是10块钱,由于四年之后比特币奖励减半,那矿工得到的奖励只有5块钱)。

即将于 2024 年 4 月 19 日星期五进行的减半预计会将区块奖励从 6.25 个比特币减半至 3.125 个比特币,这意味着每天发行 450 个比特币,而不是 900 个。

目前,比特币的年通胀率约为1.8%,预计在即将到来的减半后将降至0.9%。此后,通货膨胀率几乎可以忽略不计。此外,大量的比特币丢失了,我们可以预见,未来还会有很多比特币丢失。有限供应量的持续下降增加了比特币网络的通缩压力。随着越来越多的人(和机器)使用比特币,需求的增加被供应的减少所抵消。

这种极其强烈的通货紧缩运动在房地产领域是观察不到的。尽管由于建筑用地供应有限,房地产也很稀缺,但没有硬性上限。例如,可以开发新的建筑用地,并且分区法可以允许建造更高的楼层。

绝对稀缺

对于大多数人来说,很难想象固定供应对资产价格的影响。在比特币出现之前,并不存在本质上稀缺商品的概念。即使是黄金也具有弹性供应。需求的增加促使挖矿工作更加密集,这种灵活性不适用于比特币。

因此,每次减半事件都意味着供应量减少,比特币的价格就会上涨,并持续下去。只要有相应的需求,这种永久性的增长就会持续存在,这可能归因于比特币特殊的货币属性。

即使在全球经济危机期间,这种动态预计仍将持续。比特币的供应量将继续减少,价格很可能会继续上涨。正如所解释的,由于危机时期预期的持续需求。即使通货膨胀也会对比特币的价格产生积极影响,因为它导致可投资比特币的法定货币的供应量增加。

结尾

在一个日益激进化和正在经历深刻危机的金融体系的世界中,比特币成为存储价值的最佳选择,尤其是在宏观经济波动时期。在这个动荡的时期,比特币的重要性预计将会上升,有可能在遥远的未来取代房地产成为人类首选的价值储存手段。

我们希望越来越多的人认识到比特币的优势,不仅可以保值财富,而且在极端情况下也可以保障生计。


We live in a highly digital world, but most people still use physical goods to store value. According to statistics, the most commonly used means of value storage in the world is real estate. However, the recent macroeconomic and geopolitical headwinds have highlighted the weakness of real estate as a means of physical value storage. What if a war breaks out? What will happen if the house used as a means of value preservation is destroyed? It sounds like a dystopia if you don't take real estate with you in case of war, but I believe that if you take long-term wealth management seriously, you should consider the worst situation and possible global impact. Since the beginning of the century, the losses caused by war to human beings have never been so great. Born in Syria, Sudan, Ukraine, Palestine, Israel and Lebanon, the root causes of global conflicts are increasing, and some areas have suffered large-scale destruction. There is no more property there, and the value stored in it has actually evaporated. Apart from the pain and sorrow caused by the war, it is hard to imagine how many economic setbacks people have to endure, although there are some exceptions, such as Japanese real estate, which is used as a means of value storage all over the world. With the intensification of the threat of destruction, millions or even billions of people. Apart from inflation and taxes, the destruction of material wealth has always been one of the biggest threats to the overall prosperity. As early as ancient times, the army brutally plundered cities and destroyed residents' property. Fortunately, with Bitcoin, the threat of the destruction of wealth stored in physical assets can be solved. As a digital near-perfect mobile value storage means, it is difficult to destroy and easy to move. The launch of Bitcoin in 2000 challenged real estate. The role of human beings' preferred value storage means, because it represents a better choice, people all over the world can protect their wealth relatively easily. You can buy very small denominations of bitcoin, and the smallest price is as low as US dollars. All it needs is a computer without Internet access and a key generator, or just spend US dollars to buy a hardware wallet. If you need to move, you can remember one word, that is, the backup mnemonic of wallet. And take away your bitcoin. Digitalization optimizes almost all the functions of preserving value. Bitcoin is rarer, easier to obtain, lower in maintenance cost and more mobile. The most important thing is that it allows you to transfer your wealth in times of crisis. Bitcoin is really your wealth. With the threat of wars around the world imminent, I think it is better to hold wealth in digital assets such as Bitcoin than in physical assets such as real estate, gold or art, because these assets are easily destroyed or confiscated by taxation. If we look back at the history, it is obvious that the storage of physical value makes people vulnerable to excessive government intervention. A historical example is the deprivation of Jews by Nazi Germany. Unfortunately, these repression is not an isolated case in history. This kind of thing often happens. As Michael Seiler likes to point out, after Fidel Castro took office, many people lost their property in Cuba. These painful historical lessons emphasize the importance of protecting the wealth of digital assets such as Bitcoin. Facts have proved that confiscation, taxation or Destroying bitcoin is challenging, and it is easy to transfer macroeconomic changes. In addition, changes in macroeconomic structure may lead to rapid depreciation of real estate. Usually, real estate is purchased through loans, so rising interest rates will lead to a decline in financing affordability, which will lead to a decline in demand, which will lead to a decline in real estate prices. We can see that this situation is now being staged on a global scale, and the combination of rising interest rates and reduced demand has led to a decline in the value of global real estate. Compared with bitcoin, it is less affected by the problems of the traditional legal tender financial system, because it runs independently of the system, and variables such as interest rate, central bank decision-making and arbitrary government actions have limited influence on bitcoin. The price mainly depends on its supply, issuance schedule and adoption rate. Bitcoin follows the deflation model, which means that its supply gradually decreases over time until it reaches the hard limit in 2000. For example, the reward for bitcoin blocks is halved every four years. After four years, the bitcoin reward will be halved, and the miners will only get a reward of RMB. The halving will be carried out on Friday, June, and it is expected that the block reward will be halved from one bitcoin to one bitcoin, which means that the annual inflation rate of bitcoin is expected to drop to almost negligible after the upcoming halving. In addition, a large number of bitcoins have been lost, and we can foresee that many bitcoins will be lost in the future, and the limited supply will continue. The decline has increased the deflationary pressure of the bitcoin network. As more and more people and machines use bitcoin, the increase in demand is offset by the decrease in supply. This extremely strong deflationary movement is not observed in the real estate field. Although the supply of construction land is limited, real estate is also scarce, but there is no hard upper limit. For example, new construction land can be developed and the zoning method can allow the construction of higher floors. It is absolutely scarce for most people to imagine the impact of fixed supply on asset prices. Before the emergence of Bitcoin, there was no concept of essentially scarce goods. Even gold has flexibility. The increase in supply demand has made mining more intensive. This flexibility does not apply to Bitcoin. Therefore, every halving event means that the supply will decrease, and the price of Bitcoin will rise and continue. As long as there is corresponding demand, this permanent growth will continue, which may be attributed to the special monetary properties of Bitcoin. Even during the global economic crisis, this dynamic is expected to continue. The supply of bitcoin will continue to decrease, and the price is likely to continue to rise. As explained, due to the expected sustained demand during the crisis, even inflation will have a positive impact on the price of bitcoin, because it will lead to an increase in the supply of legal tender that can invest in bitcoin. At the end, in a world of increasingly radical and deeply crisis financial system, bitcoin has become the best choice to store value, especially in the period of macroeconomic fluctuation. In this turbulent period, the importance of bitcoin is expected to rise, and it may replace real estate as the first choice of value storage means for human beings in the distant future. 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台

文字格式和图片示例

注册有任何问题请添加 微信:MVIP619 拉你进入群

弹窗与图片大小一致 文章转载注明 网址:https://netpsp.com/?id=60178

美化布局示例

欧易(OKX)最新版本

【遇到注册下载问题请加文章最下面的客服微信】永久享受返佣20%手续费!

APP下载   全球官网 大陆官网

币安(Binance)最新版本

币安交易所app【遇到注册下载问题请加文章最下面的客服微信】永久享受返佣20%手续费!

APP下载   官网地址

火币HTX最新版本

火币老牌交易所【遇到注册下载问题请加文章最下面的客服微信】永久享受返佣20%手续费!

APP下载   官网地址
可以去百度分享获取分享代码输入这里。
声明

1.本站遵循行业规范,任何转载的稿件都会明确标注作者和来源;2.本站的原创文章,请转载时务必注明文章作者和来源,不尊重原创的行为我们将追究责任;3.作者投稿可能会经我们编辑修改或补充。

发表评论
平台列表
美化布局示例

欧易(OKX)

  全球官网 大陆官网

币安(Binance)

  官网

火币(HTX)

  官网

Gate.io

  官网

Bitget

  官网

deepcoin

  官网
关注我们

若遇到问题,加微信客服---清歌

搜索
排行榜
扫一扫,加我为微信好友加我为微信好友