暂时不认为sol和btc生态有机会超过ETH以态——从经济复杂性视角来看链之间的竞争

币圈资讯 阅读:33 2024-04-22 09:01:11 评论:0
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作者:闪电HSL

今年对超越以太坊的呼声越来越高了,特别是sol和btc生态,我觉得它们做不到。

经济复杂性是一个经济学上的概念,可以简单理解为一个国家干什么的都有,并且这些经济行为交织在一起。经济复杂性指数越高就说明这个国家的经济越安全,并且越有创新能力。

这个很好理解,就是鸡蛋放多个篮子里理论的国家版本。就像中国,什么都能干,制造业、农业、服务业,高科技、低科技、0科技,吃的、玩的、捣乱的……什么都有,那整个经济体就能杠住巨大的灾难。

就像恒大搞出2.4万亿¥的烂账,这么大一笔钱,在其他国家早就变成全国性系统性金融危机了吧,但这事在中国并没有特别严重,虽然很多买了恒大烂尾楼的家庭及恒大供应商很惨。

另外一个案例是华为,美国作为全球第一大军事和经济双强国,举全国之力制裁华为。在去年(2023年)华为发布Mate 60手机后,盘活了一大票华为的供应链商家,也可以反过来说这些供应商拯救了华为。

华为和这些供应商是相互交织在一起,这就是荣辱与共,大家能够齐心协力。去年有大量的相关报道,各个手机供应链如何和华为共进退的新闻。其实这并不是爱不爱国的关系,而是命运共同体关系,华为倒了,这些供应商也很难有个奔头了。

供应链越是复杂,大家就越能交织在一起,相互绑定在一起,经济就越稳定,这就是大家都是命运共同体。

我之所以认为以太坊生态目前是能够应对sol和btc生态的挑战,最核心的观点就是以太坊形成了非常复杂的经济生态,生态上的各个项目相互交织,相互绑定在一起,形成了高度复杂的经济体。

在去年curve.fi的老板,因为自己质押了大量的crv币去借款,crv跌到了快要爆仓了。整个defi生态都不希望curve.fi倒下,很多人都向curve老板伸出了援手,通过OTC向他买了大量的crv币,帮他躲过了爆仓。

这种场景,在其他链是看不到的。相反,其他链上有某个项目快要挂了,大家想的是你赶紧死,死透了我来干一个。

BCH生态上就出现过这一幕,在2022年BCH价格下跌,到了某个抵押bch做多bch的大户被清算了,并且他在bch生态上有产业(但这些都不是链上行为,所以不像crv那样有充足的证据),结果BCH生态上大家想的是一鲸落,万物生。

如何分析以太坊链上经济体的复杂性呢?为什么我要说以太坊生态经济复杂性要远高于sol和btc生态呢?

我是defi爱好者,经常会使用多个defi产品,也因此会大量观察ETH链上交易。

在以太坊同一个区块里,会有大量的相互关联的合约交易,比如一笔交易同时涉及到uniswap、aave、makerdao,这三个合约。

几乎每一个以太坊区块都包含了一定数量的交易同时涉及到多个合约。

我们可以说一个合约就是一个独立的经济体,而一笔交易同时穿了多个合约,这些合约就是相互交织相互绑定的关系。它们谁都不希望其他合约死掉。

在sol上也很少看到一笔交易同时关联多个合约,更多的还是各个项目方自己的用户自己玩。(不过,我不是sol的深度用户,只是贪财简单使用过几个项目,所以我的观察未必靠谱,如果要给个准确度的话,我觉得80%靠谱吧。)

但在btc上,完全不存在这样的交易。

sol和btc这样的经济生态,也是一鲸落,万物生。如果灰度遇到危机,大家都愿意看到它死,除非你开杠杆做多比特币。

或许,如果有数学厉害的人,可以给区块链建一个经济复杂度的数学模型。

就观察一个区块当中有多少交易穿了多个合约,或者1万笔交易当中穿多个合约的交易占比多少。

用这个数据当成是区块链的经济复杂度指标。

还有另外一个参数是单笔的gas费,gas费高低和交易的复杂度是正相关的。

这个指标,或许可以充当区块链健壮指数,可以用来炒币呢。


Author Lightning's call for surpassing the Ethereum is getting louder and louder this year, especially with ecology. I think they can't do it. Economic complexity is an economic concept, which can be simply understood as a country that has everything and these economic behaviors are intertwined. The higher the economic complexity index, the safer and more innovative the country's economy is. This is well understood as the national version of the theory of putting eggs in multiple baskets, just like China, which can do everything in manufacturing, agriculture and service industries. Low-tech, high-tech, food, fun and everything, then the whole economy can contain a huge disaster, just like Evergrande has made trillions of bad debts. Such a large sum of money has already become a national systemic financial crisis in other countries, but it is not particularly serious in China, although many families who bought Evergrande's unfinished buildings and Evergrande suppliers are miserable. Another case is Huawei, the United States, as the world's largest military and economic power, raised national efforts to sanction Huawei after Huawei released its mobile phone last year. A large number of Huawei's supply chain businesses have been revitalized. On the other hand, it can be said that these suppliers have saved Huawei. Huawei and these suppliers are intertwined. This is that we can work together in Qi Xin. Last year, there were a lot of related reports on how various mobile phone supply chains advanced and retreated with Huawei. In fact, this is not a patriotic relationship, but a community relationship of destiny. It is difficult for these suppliers to have a head start. The more complex the supply chain, the more intertwined they can be. The more stable the economy will be together. This is that everyone is a community of destiny. The reason why I think that the ecology of Ethereum can cope with the challenges of ecology at present is that the various projects in the ecology of Ethereum are intertwined and bound together to form a highly complex economy. Last year, the boss fell to the verge of bursting because he pledged a lot of money to borrow, and the whole ecology did not want to fall. Many people extended a helping hand to him. Bought a lot of coins to help him avoid the explosion. This scene is invisible in other chains. On the contrary, there is a project that is about to die in other chains. What everyone thinks is that you should die quickly. I will do an ecological scene. This scene happened in the year when the price fell to a large mortgage lender and he was liquidated, and he had an industry in ecology. But these are not chain behaviors, so there is not enough evidence like that. As a result, what everyone wants in ecology is how to analyze the economic recovery in the chain of Ethereum. Why do I say that the complexity of ecological economy in Ethereum is much higher than that in harmony? I am a lover and often use multiple products, so I will observe a lot of transactions in the chain. In the same block of Ethereum, there will be a large number of interrelated contract transactions, such as a transaction involving these three contracts at the same time. Almost every block of Ethereum contains a certain number of transactions and involves multiple contracts at the same time. We can say that a contract is an independent economy and a transaction is worn at the same time. Many contracts are intertwined and bound. None of them want other contracts to die in the world, and they rarely see a transaction at the same time. More contracts are related to each project's own users, but I am not a deep user. I just love money and have used several projects simply, so my observation may not be reliable. If I want to give an accuracy, I think it is reliable, but there is no such transaction and such economic ecology in the world. Everyone wants to see the gray scale die unless you leverage to do more bitcoin. Maybe if someone with good math skills can build a mathematical model of economic complexity for the blockchain, observe how many transactions in a block wear multiple contracts or what proportion of transactions wear multiple contracts among 10,000 transactions. Use this data as an indicator of the economic complexity of the blockchain, and another parameter is that the cost of a single transaction is positively related to the complexity of the transaction. This indicator may be used as a blockchain robust index and can be used to speculate in coins. 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台

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