LBP 是一门好生意 但是一种好的投资方式吗?

币圈资讯 阅读:38 2024-04-22 07:57:11 评论:0
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作者:NingNing,独立研究员 来源:X,@0xNing0x

从市场层级上来说,LBP平台是介于一级风险投资市场与二级交易市场之间的1.5级市场。

它的机制是利用智能合约实现荷兰拍销售一级市场项目Token。荷兰拍与我们常见的拍卖方式不同。它的IDO价格会从高开始,自动下降,有成交则停止下降。成交之后如果过段时间没有新的成交,会继续下降。

LBP允许将二级交易市场机制引入到一级市场代币发行过程中,从而能更有效的发现新项目的市场价格。

LBP通过智能合约和市场博弈实现了新币销售的相对公平,能防止出现鲸鱼包场某新币然后在二级市场倾销的现象。

但是LBP并不能保证绝对的公平(任何技术和机制也实现不了)。在LBP的游戏规则之下,鲸鱼仍然具有资金优势、信息优势等非对称优势。

当市场进入牛市周期后,一级市场逐渐热闹起来,大家对新资产需求旺盛,LBP平台成为一门好生意。

以当前的LBP平台龙头Fjord Foundry为例,总融资$954,788,833,LBP期间交易量$1,474,431,124,协议总费用收入(不包括策展费用等)$26,922,859。

lhEjS9evSmY0Rky1SxgEUjtRvZl4R9zCfoTTOJyr.png

但对散户来说,参与LBP是一种好的投资方式吗?

还是以Fjord Foundry为例子,根据coincarp的统计,最近36个IDO,平均当前ROI(回报率,100%相当于保本)304.78%,平均最高ROI(回报率)为1872.69%。

貌似还不错,但这是一个常见的数据统计Trick,只统计平均值,而不统计方差。

coincarp的统计中,ROI的有效数据20个,方差值为29.50,收率率分布极度不均衡。

在去掉两个最高值,Lyve Finance的18.86倍和Unibit的17.36倍后,平均当前ROI为127.55%,方差值为1.425。

也就是说,正常情况下,这段时间参与Fjord Foundry LBP比较稳定的能赚27.55%。这个收益率并没有跑赢同时期比特币涨幅。

wLUSB2t4r7Kxy2rb8SzgqseBwIHiCAYiRk5fwI1b.png

LBP本质上是一个粉单市场。在计算交易成本、Gas费、机会成本的情况下,可能已经属于负EV博弈。参与LBP的话,建议抱着一个打土狗心态。操作原则是少量多次。万一碰上金狗呢,对吧?


The author's independent researcher comes from the market level. The platform is a level market between the first-level venture capital market and the second-level trading market. Its mechanism is to use smart contracts to realize the Dutch auction to sell the first-level market items. Unlike our common auction methods, its price will automatically drop from high, and if there is a transaction, it will stop falling. After the transaction, if there is no new transaction for a while, it will continue to decline, allowing the introduction of the secondary trading market mechanism into the token issuance process in the first-level market. It can more effectively find the market price of new projects, realize the relative fairness of new currency sales through intelligent contracts and market games, and prevent the phenomenon that whales charter a new currency and then dump it in the secondary market, but it can't guarantee absolute fairness. Under the existing rules of the game, whales still have asymmetric advantages such as capital advantage and information advantage. When the market enters the bull market cycle, the primary market is gradually lively, and everyone has a strong demand for new assets, and the platform has become a good one. Take the current platform leader as an example. During the total financing period, the transaction volume, the agreement and the total fee income do not include the curatorial fees, but is participation a good investment method for retail investors? Or do you think that according to the statistics of the example, the latest average current rate of return is equivalent to the average maximum rate of return of capital preservation? It seems not bad, but this is a common statistic, which only counts the average value but not the variance. The effective data in the statistics is that the distribution of the yield rate is extremely uneven, and the sum of the two highest values is removed. In other words, under normal circumstances, you can earn this rate of return by participating in a relatively stable period of time, but you can't outperform the increase of bitcoin in the same period. In essence, the market of powder orders may already belong to a negative game when calculating the transaction cost and opportunity cost. If you participate in it, it is recommended to hold a dog-beating mentality. The principle of operation is a small number of times in case you run into a golden dog, right? 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台

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