香港大会归来后小记:VC、kol、meme、梅林

币圈资讯 阅读:33 2024-04-22 07:57:09 评论:0
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作者:cryptoHowe.eth 来源:X,@weihaoming

作为今年参加的国内第一个大型活动,同时也是第一次从 VC 的视角来写下这篇小作文。现在就让我来解释一下为什么我会把这次参会感想总结为三个 Ponzi 哈哈。同时也要声明一下,本文仅代表个人观点,NFA。

一、行业篇

1.VC 是大家判断赛道的风向标之一

每当在与人交流提及自己在 VC 做 Researcher 时,大家都会不约而同问到一个问题:你们最近都看好哪些赛道?

这其实也间接说明了大家对于 VC 的看法处于一个比较看重的地位,他们会通过将各大 VC 的观点作为判断自身看法是否正确的标准之一。毕竟这也算是比较简单的一个道理:热钱在哪里,主流市场就在哪里,纵使存在板块轮动,那也只是不同资金之间的流入流出。

2.比特币生态仍处于混沌之中

比特币生态无可否认是目前的火热赛道之一,但个人对于比特币生态目前的发展,更愿意将其比喻成盘古开天辟地之初的混沌状态。

其一是因为当前整个比特币生态中,主要还是以各类资产协议为主,真正有实际应用的落地项目仍然稀少,大家现在讲的大多内容仍然是叙事、叙事、叙事。

其二是另一主流叙事 BTC L2 的竞争,处于各大项目方互相搏杀的阶段。其中我们可以看到一个很有趣的现象,BTC L2 项目的发展分为两派,一派是先搞流量再做基建,另一派是做好基建再搞流量,这就好比旅游业和城市基建两者之间的关系。那么最后到底谁能胜出,这是值得观察的一点。

其三是 Merlin Chain 个人觉得其在代表目前 BTC L2 赛道上已经有了很大的话语权,在通过前期的一波波增长手段吸引了巨大的流量和用户进入之后,在接下来将会采取什么样的手段来锁住流动性,将用户留下,抑或是出现一些有实际意义的生态项目等。Merlin Chain 的选择以及之后的结局最终是怎么样的,以及 BTC L2 到底是否真的有需求,这些都是值得我们从中学习反思的。

3.Depin 和 AI 是提及最多的两条赛道

不同于目前的比特币生态,几乎都是华语圈在玩。Depin 和 AI 则是华语圈和海外都在关注的两条赛道,也是真正具有实际意义,且更容易落地的两条赛道。Depin 解决闲置资源浪费、小微资源无用的难题,AI 协助解决重复性工作、无意义工作,提高效率等。

Depin 通过结合现实设备,让原本看不见摸不着的 Web3 有了具象化的表现,而 AI 作为近两年火爆的行业,其与区块链的结合属于是浑然天成的。而 Depin + AI 则更为契合,Depin 协助解决 AI 的算力、数据、存储等问题,AI 则利用 Depin 设备进行各种尝试,如模型训练、打数据标签、AI Agent 等等。

4.KOL > VC 还是 VC > KOL

这段时间我们经常能听到一种声音:项目融资的 KOL 轮开始多了起来,甚至 KOL 轮的优势会比 VC 轮的优势大,估值低,解锁周期短等等。

对于此,我们需要认识到,VC 本质上也是一个服务行业,他们考虑的是如何为背后的 LP 争取最大化收益,因此 KOL 与 VC 之间的关系就好比灵活自由的游击队与训练有素的军队之间的关系。一个好的 VC 在内部会形成一套自己的投资逻辑,根据这个逻辑来调整自身的投资策略以及相应的投后工作。

同时,一次好的投资其实更看重的是投后工作的效果,如何帮助项目方少走弯路,踩对风口,以及相关的利好如何释放等等,绝不是大家想象的给点钱,喊喊单就可以了,这些工作对于投资人的能力要求是相当高的。

因此,关于 KOL > VC 还是 VC > KOL 相信大家已经有了判断。

5.当前市场处于一种 meme 阶段

前面提及我把这次参会感想精简总结为“Ponzi、Ponzi、Ponzi”。更多的是出于对当前市场状态的个人理解,目前正处于一种 meme 阶段,即炒叙事、炒预期。

近期火热的赛道主要有比特币生态、Depin、AI 这三条,但我们透过表面看本质,会发现当前大多项目其实都还是在炒叙事,炒大家对于赛道未来的预期,真正落到实际的几乎没有。当然,其他赛道也如此,这并不是在主流赛道中才会存在的现象。

举一些简单的例子,Merlin Chain 现在为什么这么火,是因为有财富效应,还是因为 Merlin Chain 上有好的生态,还是因为 BTC L2 的叙事很火爆;Depin 中的去中心化算力项目,到底连接了多少现实设备,每个设备的算力又利用了多少,对于现实世界是否真的有所帮助,真的有人会使用这些算力吗,还是单纯的说说而已;AI 的模型训练,有多少已经投入了使用,对大家的帮助又有多少,是缺一不可,还是可有可无……

当然,这些都是正常的现象,一个赛道的生态发展注定是一件长期的事情,不可能上来就一步到位的。这里更多的是想说,我们应该认识到目前我们处在一个怎么样的阶段,在什么时间该做什么事情,是我们应该去思考的。

二、生活篇

1.不可或缺的纸币

在内地可微信支付宝行天下时,纸币仍然是在香港出行的必备之物。虽然八达通基本上也可以解决大部分,但也仍然有一些巴士或餐厅仍然只收取现金,且八达通的增值只能使用纸币。

2.高级乐高积木搭建师

虽是广东人,但也是第一次来到香港,香港的建筑构造属于是在一片狭小空间中最大限度地把闲置资源利用起来。楼与楼之间的间距很短,短到可能对楼的两户人家打开窗户,就可以传递东西了;除去一些大路口,小路口的数量更多且间距也很短;天桥的设计很多都是直接在楼与楼之间进行连接。诸如此类,让我也体会到了之前大家常说的,在香港生活真的太压抑了,走在路上时总会有一种心口上被压住了的感觉。

3.其他

这里说一些在赶路时观察到的小细节:

  • 不同于内地,香港的路口都会在地上用很大的字体注明观察车流的来向(望左/望右),人行道红绿灯处还设置了为盲人使用的提示

  • 地铁的楼梯上下口会配置一些便捷电梯(不是单独的那种电梯,是挂靠在楼梯的扶手处)为一些行走不便的人设置,这在国内是还没看到过的,当然我感觉这个的使用率应该很低

  • 在周末时能看到很多菲佣在天桥、空旷地等席地而坐,聊天休息

  • 城市环境还是不错的,几乎很少看到地上有垃圾,但同样的,我也很少看到路面上有垃圾桶

三、个人感悟

本次参会明显感觉比去年新加坡 2049 少了很多人,且会场的项目方基本都是华人项目,少有一些海外项目。同时会去各个会场听讲的人也少了很多,大家也开始意识到了,大会能获取到的高质量信息永远是最少的,只有小局才是谈大事的地方。

今年来参会,能感觉出自己跟去年已有一些不同,从去年的一个小透明,到现在的有所知有所闻,也说明了自己的努力并没有白费。个人感觉自己也算是比较幸运的,一路走来,少不了很多前辈的指导和教诲。

不过也还有很长的一段路要走哈哈,包括说来到 VC 之后,能深刻体会到投资是一门非常讲究学问和变通的行业,既要对历史和行业现状有充分的理解,又要对未来的趋势和发展进行提前布局。什么时间就做什么事,这句话说起来简单,做起来可不简单,可以说是成败在此一举。而目前自己最缺乏的还是知行合一,对于市场变化还不够敏锐,且行动没有贯彻到底,以及对于二级市场的把控,在这些方面还得多去实践反思,尽快找到属于自己的策略,至少现在我能很明确的知道我肯定不是做短期的料哈哈。

对于今年才刚刚开始,需要做的事情仍然很多,临近毕业,也要不断加快自己的步伐,争取在明年让自己能够被拉到更多的小局里去hh,但更多还是希望自己能够在 Web3 的道路上越走越远。


The author's source is the first large-scale activity in China this year, and it is also the first time to write this essay from a new perspective. Now let me explain why I summed up my feelings about this participation into three haha. At the same time, I also want to declare that this article only represents my personal views, and an industry article is one of the weathervanes for everyone to judge the track. Whenever you talk to others and mention what you are doing, everyone will invariably ask a question, which tracks have you been optimistic about recently, which actually indirectly shows the greatness. Economists' opinions are in a more important position, and they will judge whether their opinions are correct by taking the major opinions as one of the criteria. After all, this is a relatively simple truth. Where the hot money is, the mainstream market is where it is. Even if there is plate rotation, it is only the inflow and outflow of different funds. Bitcoin ecology is still in chaos. It is undeniable that Bitcoin ecology is one of the hot tracks at present, but individuals are more willing to compare it to the current development of Bitcoin ecology. The chaotic state since the beginning of time, firstly, is because the current bitcoin ecology is mainly based on various asset agreements, and the landing projects with real practical applications are still rare. Most of what you are talking about now is still narrative narrative narrative. Secondly, the competition of another mainstream narrative is in the stage of fighting each other, in which we can see a very interesting phenomenon. The development of projects is divided into two factions: one is to engage in traffic first, then infrastructure, and the other is to engage in traffic after infrastructure. For example, the relationship between tourism and urban infrastructure, so it is worth observing who will win in the end. Thirdly, I feel that it has a great right to speak on behalf of the current track. After attracting huge traffic and users through the previous wave of growth, what kind of means will be taken to lock the liquidity, leave users or appear some practical ecological projects, and what will be the final outcome? And whether there is really a demand, these are the two tracks that we should learn from and reflect on. The two tracks mentioned most are different from the current bitcoin ecology. Almost all of them are played in the Chinese-speaking circle, and the two tracks that both the Chinese-speaking circle and overseas are paying attention to are also the two tracks that have real practical significance and are easier to land. Solve the problem of wasting idle resources, help solve repetitive work, improve meaningless work and improve efficiency. By combining real equipment, we can make the original invisible and intangible. The figurative performance, as a hot industry in recent two years, its combination with blockchain is natural, but it is more suitable to help solve the problems of computing power, data storage and so on. We use equipment to make various attempts, such as model training, data labeling and so on. During this time, we often hear a sound that the number of rounds of project financing has increased, and even the advantages of the rounds will be greater than the advantages of the rounds, and the unlocking period will be shorter. For this, we need to realize that they are also a service industry in essence. What is considered is how to strive for the maximum benefits behind it, so the relationship with it is like the relationship between flexible and free guerrillas and well-trained troops. A good one will form its own investment logic internally, and adjust its investment strategy and corresponding post-investment work according to this logic. At the same time, a good investment actually pays more attention to the effect of post-investment work, how to help the project side to avoid detours and how to release related benefits, etc. It is by no means imagined by everyone. Just give some money and shout orders. These jobs require quite high ability of investors. Therefore, we still believe that the current market is in a stage. As mentioned earlier, I have summarized my feelings about this meeting more simply because of my personal understanding of the current market state. At present, I am in a stage of speculation, that is, speculation is expected. There are three hot tracks in the near future, but we will find that most of the current projects are actually speculating through the surface. The speculation that everyone's expectations for the future of the track have hardly fallen into reality. Of course, so have other tracks. This is not a phenomenon that only exists in mainstream tracks. Give some simple examples. Why is it so hot now because of the wealth effect or the good ecology in the world or because the decentralized computing project in the narrative is very popular? How many real devices are connected and how much computing power of each device is used? Does it really help the real world? Will someone really use these? How much of the model training has been put into use and how much is indispensable or dispensable for everyone? Of course, these are normal phenomena. The ecological development of a track is destined to be a long-term thing. What we want to say here is that we should realize what stage we are at, when we should do it and what we should think about, including the indispensable paper money. Paper money is still a necessary thing to travel in Hong Kong when the WeChat Alipay is popular all over the world. Although Octopus can basically solve most of the problems, there are still some buses or restaurants that still only accept cash, and the value-added of Octopus can only use paper money. Although the senior Lego building builder is from Guangdong, it is also the first time to come to Hong Kong. The architectural structure of Hong Kong belongs to two families who make the best use of idle resources in a narrow space, and the distance between buildings is so short that it is possible for them. When you open the window, you can pass things, except for some big intersections, where the number of small intersections is more and the spacing is short. Many overpasses are designed to connect directly between buildings, and so on, which makes me realize that life in Hong Kong is really too depressing before. When you walk on the road, you will always feel oppressed in your heart. Others here say that some small details observed while you are on the road are different from those observed in the mainland. The intersections in Hong Kong will indicate the direction of traffic flow on the ground with large fonts. There is also a reminder for the blind at the traffic lights on the sidewalk. There will be some convenient elevators at the upper and lower entrances of the subway stairs. It is not a separate elevator. It is attached to the handrails of the stairs for some people who are inconvenient to walk. This has not been seen in China. Of course, I feel that the utilization rate of this one should be very low. On weekends, I can see many Filipino maids sitting, chatting and resting on the overpass. The urban environment is still good, but I rarely see garbage on the ground. Similarly, I rarely see garbage cans on the road. Three people feel that there are fewer people in this meeting than last year in Singapore. 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台

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