比特币四年牛熊市周期结束了吗?

币圈资讯 阅读:30 2024-04-22 07:32:37 评论:0
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作者:Daniel Polotsky,CoinFlip 创始人 来源:coindesk 翻译:善欧巴,比特币买卖交易网

比特币减半即将来临,毫无疑问,我们似乎正处于重大变革的边缘。虽然每个人都目不转睛地盯着比特币 (BTC) 价格飙升以及创纪录新高的可能性,但涟漪效应的影响深远。它们将触及加密货币市场的各个角落,甚至可能标志着加密货币四年牛市/熊市周期的终结。

然而,这不仅仅关乎数字; 这是关于我们对数字货币的认知和互动方式发生巨大转变的潜力。做好准备——这可能是加密货币全新时代的开始。

比特币的崛起

近期,比特币的价值飙升,这得益于 4 月即将到来的减半活动以及美国批准现货比特币交易所交易基金 (ETF) 和贝莱德等主要金融机构公开进入该领域的利好消息。机构投资者的兴趣导致了前所未有的需求,比特币在 3 月 13 日触及 73,000 美元以上的新历史高点。这可能是由创纪录的资金流入 ETF 推动的,其中包括 3 月 12 日的 10.45 亿美金流入。

这种转变标志着加密货币作为一种合法资产类别被更广泛地认可,标志着机构投资新阶段的开始。它也进一步增强了比特币的信誉和散户投资者的可及性。

这些里程碑式的进展使投资者能够接触比特币,而无需承受直接所有权带来的复杂性。增加的流动性和稳定性可能会继续吸引更广泛的投资者,推动主流更广泛地采用,并进一步助推比特币估值目前的飙升。

当然,市场上仍然存在看跌人士。然而,随着比特币价格预测从 15 万美元到 25 万美元不等,比特币市场即将迎来大量机构资本的涌入。这将预示着其历史周期动态的潜在转变,从而推动多个数字资产领域的新水平增长和创新。

世事难料,往往利弊相伴

尽管加密货币市场呈现明显的上涨势头,但一些因素可能会扰乱这一轨迹。持续的通货膨胀可能会促使实施更严格的货币政策,从而影响像加密货币这样风险较高的资产。经济增长缓慢也可能会削弱投资者信心,使他们将注意力从投机性投资上移开。

另一个短期问题在于比特币挖矿行业。即将到来的 2024 年减半活动预计将引发重大整合和违约,因为资金紧张的矿企将难以应对利润空间缩小和运营成本高昂的局面。这可能会迫使他们在进入破产程序时抛售比特币,从而抑制价格上涨。此外,监管审查和资金缺乏也带来了挑战,可能会对价格施向下行压力。

2024 年选举存在的不确定性更增加了另一层无法预测的因素。政治结果可能导致各种监管变化,美国政府对加密货币的立场也可能发生潜在转变。虽然共和党执政可能会提供一个更加有利的监管环境,但民主党也可能会由于在金融普惠和环境可持续性等价值观上与该行业保持一致而变得更加欢迎该行业。这可能会促进两党对加密货币监管的双边支持。

加密货币繁荣/萧条周期结束了吗?

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然而,减半事件意想不到的次生效应也许是最诱人的。虽然历史上减半一直是牛市周期的驱动因素,但减半的影响可能会被上述其他因素所掩盖,例如惊人的 ETF 净流入量。 ETF 总净流入量已经超过了 150 亿美元。

机构投资者和散户 ETF 投资者在“逢低买入”方面经验更丰富的财务顾问的指导下进行战略干预,这可能成为抑制减半推动市场前进的有效因素。

这意味着加密货币典型的四年牛市/熊市周期可能即将终结,似乎不再与比特币减半事件紧密相连,而是走向相对稳定的向上增长轨道,ETF 流入将成为加密货币普及的主要催化剂。值得注意的是,这是比特币价格首次在减半之前飙升,而之前几年比特币价格飙升都发生在减半之后。

这种转变可能会对整个行业产生深远影响。最初,加密货币的精神根植于对中心化货币和机构的反文化抵制,其口号是“没有你的密钥,就不是你的币”。现在看来,加密货币的主导力量可能很快就会被少数机构控制,所有权分散在无法访问自己密钥的个人手中——这与最初的去中心化理想背道而驰。

向机构所有权的倾斜可能会导致更大规模的事件:主权国家持有比特币。更多国家可能会效仿萨尔瓦多,开启一场积累加密货币的竞赛,这可能会引发全球主流采用超级周期。

这一变化还可能导致加密货币市场传统上的激烈繁荣-萧条周期发生偏离,从而为该行业内部的增长和发展营造更稳定的环境。

虽然较少的散户投资者将体验到牛市的欣喜若狂,但好消息是他们也将避免在市场暴跌时买在最高点并遭受巨大损失的残酷现实。

这种新的稳定性可以让加密货币公司和项目有机会专注于可持续的长期发展,而不是去预测市场周期并在加密寒冬期间面临极端不利局面。

随着投资者和爱好者们为即将到来的剧烈波动做好准备,很明显,市场正处于前所未有的增长和潜在的根本范式转变的边缘。虽然这令人欣喜又有些许伤感,但即将到来的时期可以被视为加密货币走出其婴儿期,标志着其历史上的一次重大演变。在告别之前,我们所有人都应该准备好庆祝它的“最后的狂欢”。


The author and founder source translation Shanouba Bitcoin Trading Network is about to halve bitcoin. There is no doubt that we seem to be on the verge of a major change. Although everyone is staring at the possibility of soaring bitcoin prices and record highs, the ripple effect has a far-reaching impact. They will touch every corner of the cryptocurrency market and may even mark the end of the four-year bull and bear market cycle of cryptocurrency. However, this is not just about numbers. It is about our understanding and understanding of digital currency. Be prepared for the potential of a great change in the way of interaction. This may be the beginning of a new era of cryptocurrency. The rise of Bitcoin has soared recently. This is due to the upcoming halving activity in May and the good news that the United States approved the spot bitcoin exchange trading fund and BlackRock and other major financial institutions to openly enter the field. The interest of institutional investors led to unprecedented demand. Bitcoin hit a new historical high above the US dollar on May, which may be caused by a record capital flow. This change, including the inflow of US$ 100 million on March, marks that cryptocurrency is more widely recognized as a legal asset class and marks the beginning of a new stage of institutional investment. It also further enhances the credibility of Bitcoin and the accessibility of retail investors. These landmark developments enable investors to contact Bitcoin without bearing the complexity brought by direct ownership. The increased liquidity and stability may continue to attract more investors and promote the mainstream to adopt it more widely. And further boost the current soaring valuation of Bitcoin. Of course, there are still bears in the market. However, with the bitcoin price forecast ranging from $10,000 to $10,000, the bitcoin market is about to usher in a large influx of institutional capital, which will indicate a potential change in its historical cycle dynamics, thus promoting new levels of growth and innovation in many digital asset fields. Although the cryptocurrency market shows an obvious upward trend, some factors may disrupt the continuous communication of this track. The expansion of goods may promote the implementation of stricter monetary policy, thus affecting high-risk assets such as cryptocurrency. The slow economic growth may also weaken investors' confidence and make them turn their attention away from speculative investment. Another short-term problem is that the upcoming annual halving of bitcoin mining industry is expected to lead to major integration and default, because mining enterprises with tight funds will find it difficult to cope with the situation of shrinking profit margins and high operating costs, which may force them to enter bankruptcy. Selling bitcoin in time to curb the price increase, in addition, regulatory review and lack of funds have also brought challenges, which may put downward pressure on the price. The uncertainty in the election in 2008 has added another layer of unpredictable factors. Political results may lead to various regulatory changes, and the US government's position on cryptocurrency may also change potentially. Although the Republican Party may provide a more favorable regulatory environment, the Democratic Party may also be due to its value in financial inclusiveness and environmental sustainability. In view, it is consistent with the industry and becomes more welcoming to the industry, which may promote the bilateral support of the two parties for cryptocurrency supervision. Is the cryptocurrency boom-bust cycle over? However, the unexpected secondary effect of the halving incident may be the most attractive. Although halving has always been the driving factor of the bull market cycle in history, the impact of halving may be concealed by the above other factors. For example, the amazing net inflow has exceeded 100 million US dollars, and institutional investors and retail investors are buying on dips. Strategic intervention under the guidance of more experienced financial consultants may become an effective factor to curb halving and promote the market, which means that the typical four-year bull and bear market cycle of cryptocurrency may be coming to an end, and it seems that it is no longer closely related to the halving of bitcoin, but will move towards a relatively stable upward growth track. It is worth noting that this is the first time that bitcoin prices have soared before halving, while bitcoin prices have soared in previous years. After halving, this change may have a profound impact on the whole industry. At first, the spirit of cryptocurrency was rooted in the anti-cultural resistance to centralized currency and institutions, and its slogan was that it is not your currency without your key. Now it seems that the dominant force of cryptocurrency may soon be controlled by a few institutions and the ownership will be dispersed in the hands of individuals who cannot access their own keys, which runs counter to the original decentralization ideal, and the tilt towards institutional ownership may lead to a larger-scale event sovereignty. More countries holding bitcoin may follow El Salvador's example and start a competition to accumulate cryptocurrency, which may lead to the adoption of supercycle by the global mainstream. This change may also lead to the deviation of the traditional intense boom and bust cycle of cryptocurrency market, thus creating a more stable environment for the growth and development within the industry. Although fewer retail investors will experience the ecstasy of bull market, the good news is that they will also avoid buying at the highest point and suffering huge losses when the market plummets. The cruel reality of loss, this new stability can give cryptocurrency companies and projects the opportunity to focus on sustainable long-term development instead of predicting the market cycle and facing extremely unfavorable situations during the cryptocurrency winter. As investors and enthusiasts prepare for the upcoming drastic fluctuations, it is obvious that the market is on the verge of unprecedented growth and potential fundamental paradigm shift. Although this is gratifying and a little sad, the upcoming period can be regarded as cryptocurrency's coming out of its infancy, marking a major evolution in its history. Before farewell, all of us should be ready to celebrate its final carnival. 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台

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