比特币鏖战68k 中本聪49岁生日

币圈资讯 阅读:26 2024-04-22 07:27:59 评论:0
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作者:刘教链

溪云初起日沉阁,山雨欲来风满楼。

2日,BTC(比特币)急挫,刺穿30日均线68k,降至65k一线。

3日晨,教链撰文《比特币刺穿30日均线支撑,真凶是谁?》,解剖背后“真凶”。3日夜,教链内参《成功和失败都不重要,可重复的成功最重要》详细剖析,下跌动力中,或具决定性影响的,灰度GBTC的流出。

4日,教链内参《市场必将有力回击空头的嚣张气焰》进一步近观GBTC数据变化和显著转折,呼应3日文章中的理论判断「从中性程度积分的意义上来说,教链觉得,GBTC流失一半多可能就可以视为把负面因子释放殆尽,接下去,GBTC对市场造成的也许才真的是中性影响了。」遂于内参中给出结论:

如果确实如教链推测的,灰度抛压是导致市场无法彻底消化“回本止盈”的套牢盘以及“逢涨减仓”的老鲸鱼的“真凶”的话,那么接下来,灰度抛压的中性化,将卸下这个大包袱,市场必将有力回击空头的嚣张气焰。

5日晨,至此文提笔之时,BTC已重回30日均线68k上方,并一度攻至69k。

多空双方在68k一线鏖战。空头气势汹汹。多头不遑多让。多头急招呼各路资金前来迎接BTC空头这路主力之敌,于是其他山寨币纷纷“失血”反跌,呈现出经典的比特币吸血独涨局面。

BTC大涨,山寨小涨,这是场外援军到达。BTC不涨,山寨纷纷乱涨,这是分兵八方。BTC独涨,山寨全面下跌,这是合兵强攻。

BTC大跌,山寨小跌,这是获利资金出逃。BTC小跌,山寨纷纷暴跌,这是收缩战线。BTC止跌,山寨彻底崩盘,这是鸣金收兵。

BTC多涨。山寨多跌。可知持有BTC之胜率,远高于持有山寨。

又是一年4月5日。比特币多空双方鏖战30日均线68k美刀之际,我们迎来了中本聪的生日。

根据中本聪自己在p2pfoundation注册账号时填写的生日,1975年4月5日。今天,2024年4月5日,正是他49岁生日。

在教链所著《比特币史话》(https://leanpub.com/history-of-bitcoin )第十章“中本聪的生日”中,完整解析了中本聪所填生日日期隐喻之来龙去脉。

其中,第41话“黄金大劫案”末尾一段交代了生日的日期:「为了纪念“6102 号总统令”颁布的日子,为了警醒世人时刻提防美国政府再次通过超发货币洗劫每个人口袋里的财富,也为了暗示比特币的发明,意在解决白 皮书中所明示的去中介化支付之外,还有另外一条暗线,那就是对抗强权对于民众财富的劫掠,并给予每个人以捍卫私有财产权的有力武器,中本聪在其博客注册信息中所填写的生日之日期,正是 4 月 5 日。

而第43话“福特的福音”则交代了生日的年份:「1974 年 8 月 14 日,福特总统签署了“公法 93-373”(Public Law 93-373),也就是所谓的“黄金合法化”法案。」「最迟于 1974 年 12 月 31 日生效。这就意味着,长达 40 多年的黄金禁令终于解除,从 1975 年开始,美国人又 可以合法持有和交易黄金了。」「为了纪念黄金重新合法化,为了告诫人们强权真的可以为所欲为,为了暗示黄金货币已经回不去了,吾辈必须寻求更好的抗霸权货币,中本聪在其博客注册信息中所填写的生日之年份正是 1975 年。

教链在2019年1月1日文章《历史长波中的比特币十周年2019年生日快乐!》中,对6102法令以及黄金非法化和特别豁免的往事,进行了概述:

在历史上,1933年的4月5号,时任美国总统罗斯福签署了政府法令6102,规定美国公民持有黄金非法。通过这一法令,美国政府把全体美国人手里的黄金全部没收充公,强行换成美元。之后,美国政府立刻让美元贬值40%,强制推高金价,让美国的债务贬值,以对抗经济大萧条。这意味着,一夜之间,美国人的财富被洗劫了40%。

《比特币史话》对法令内容进行了详细的引述。其中特别的是,「根据 1933 年 4 月 5 日颁布的总统行政命令,所有人都被要求,于 1933 年 5 月 1 日当天或之前,将其拥有的全部金币、金条和金券,悉数移交给美联储银行、分行、代理行或美联储系统的任何成员银行。」「违反行政命令将被刑事处罚:根据行政令第 9 节之规定,罚款 1 万美元,或者监禁 10 年,或者两者并罚。

而对于美国政府是如何强行贬值黄金的手法,《比特币史话》也进行了介绍:「次年 1 月,发行 30 亿无黄金储备的美元,强行推高黄金价格,从 20 美元/盎司直接跃升至 35 美元/盎司。美元对黄金立即贬值了约 40%。

从1975年开始,美国人又可以合法地拥有黄金了。但是请注意,6102法令依然作为法律有效,美国人获得的黄金拥有权,只是一种privilege(特赦),而不是right(权利)。美国政府,或者说美国总统,随时可以撤销这一特赦令,从而处置任何一个美国公民手中的黄金。黄金和黄金美元的时代结束了。法令美元(fiat dollar)的时代开始了。

自此,失去了黄金约束的美元开始了一路贬值的狂奔。正如哈耶克所指出的,“人们时刻会以发钞者所发行的货币赎回黄金的可能性,不过是对发钞者施加了一种纪律约束而已,这能迫使他们将货币数量控制在适当的水平”,“金本位制只是在我们还没有找到约束政府的纪律的时候才勉强使用的一种办法而已”,“黄金纯粹是控制某种货币数量的方法而已,货币数量才是决定货币价值的真正要素”。

对黄金极限操弄的美国政府,一直都没有放弃对黄金的持续打压。教链在2023年9月28日文章《黄金,黄金》中就介绍过奥巴马政府的经典操作:

2009年,就在美国金融机构因其贪婪加杠杆导致次贷危机大崩溃的次年,旨在加强金融监管的多德-弗兰克法案(Dodd-Frank Act)出台。明明是金融机构的错却硬要甩些锅,借机夹带私货,加入了限制黄金交易的有关条款。多德-弗兰克法案被认为是“大萧条“以来最全面、最严厉的金融改革法案,它打的旗号则是“保护消费者”。2010年7月,时任美国总统奥巴马签署了该法案,使之成为正式法律。2011年7月15号,美国部分外汇交易商已经向客户发出了重要通告,称根据美国国会颁布的多德-弗兰克法案(Dodd-Frank Act),7月15日之后,贵金属场外交易(OTC)的合法性将被取缔。黄金、白银的场外市场悉数被关闭。

奥巴马给了黄金重重一击。直到十几年后的今天,黄金才刚刚超过2011年中的“前高”,经历了一次漫长的“疗伤期”。

在教链去年的文章中,「2011年中的“前高”」乃是1800-1900美刀/盎司。

半年过去,黄金开启了报复性的上攻,已经取得了显著性的“前高突破”,正在迫近2300美刀/盎司的历史新高。

也许正是受黄金的启发,中本聪深刻地认识到,真正去中心化的共识,团结起全世界广大人民的力量,或足以对抗世界最强大的权力和霸道。如果有一种,更好的黄金,比黄金更稀缺(总量仅2100万枚),比黄金更耐久(零磨损),比黄金更易验证真伪(普通民众手里的设备就能做到,不需要专业仪器鉴定),可以更细地细分(不受物理尺寸限制最小可分尺寸),安保成本更低(不用雇佣保镖、购买保险柜,最极致情况下可以藏在脑子里,谁也搜不到),流通几乎无法被拦截(进出国境不会被扣),传输成本极低(全球发送成本低至几美元或更低)、速度极快(光速),那么,这种东西一旦取得去中心化的全球共识,一定会拥有比黄金强大百倍千倍的不可思议的力量吧?!

在2022年年底教链撰写的《2022年终复盘展望报告》中,对2023-2025年新一轮周期的展望,定性是向黄金发起挑战,定量是30-50万美刀。当时教链如此前瞻:

如果定义2021年的周期是挑战美股的话,2024-2025的牛市周期则是要挑战全球第一资产品类——黄金。

今天,黄金的总市值约为12万亿美元。比特币按17k美元的价格,市值约为3300亿美元,距离黄金的总市值还有36倍的空间。比特币今天的总量是1922万枚。估计2023-2024两年还将产出约66万枚。总量达到1988万枚。按约数2000万枚计算,市值达到12万亿美元,单价应该是60万美元一枚比特币。

在上一轮熊市2018年底底部3000多到牛市顶部2021年底69k,涨幅约23倍。按照当前17k涨幅23倍则为39万约40万美元一枚比特币,乘以2000万枚,总市值则为8万亿美元,约为黄金12万亿美元市值的67%。

即便按照更小的涨幅,比如17、8倍,达到30万美元一枚比特币,总市值6万亿美元,约为黄金的一半。即使不超越黄金市值,达到相近的数量级,也可称得上是比肩黄金了。

当我们对中本聪的了解越深入,对比特币的了解越深入,我们内心深处就越是清楚地、坚定地知道,挑战和超越黄金,绝不是比特币的终点。(延伸阅读教链2024.3.4文章《比特币终局:或将等于人类全部剩余的价值总和!》)

原因只有一个:比特币配得上更大更高更远的星辰大海。

《周易》乾卦初六爻辞说,“潜龙勿用”。今天,被众多专业人士批评“百无一用”、“毫无使用价值”的比特币,正是“勿用”之“潜龙”。

当比特币位及九五,飞龙在天之时,整个宇宙都将为中本聪的伟大发明鼓掌致敬。

生日快乐,中本聪!


Author Liu Jiaolian Xi Yun begins to sink in the morning, and the rain is coming. On the morning, Bitcoin plunged and pierced the moving average and fell to the first line. On the morning of the teaching chain, the author wrote that Bitcoin pierced the moving average to support the real murderer. Who is the real murderer behind the anatomy? Success and failure in the teaching chain day and night are not important. Repeatable success is the most important. The most important thing is to analyze in detail the gray scale that has a decisive impact on the decline. The internal reference market of the Japanese teaching chain will surely respond strongly to the arrogance of the bears. Further closer look at the data changes and significant turning points echo the theoretical judgment in the Japanese article. In the sense of neutral degree integral, the didactic chain thinks that losing more than half may be regarded as releasing all negative factors, and then it may really have a neutral impact on the market. Therefore, the conclusion is drawn in the internal reference. If it is true that the gray-scale selling pressure speculated by the didactic chain is the real murderer that causes the market to be unable to completely digest the take-profit and the old whale that lightens its position every time, then the neutralization of gray-scale selling pressure will unload this big burden, and the market will surely respond forcefully to the arrogance of the bears. By the time this article was written, it had returned to the top of the moving average and once attacked the long and short positions. The two sides fought fiercely in the first line, and the bears were aggressive. The bulls were too eager to greet the funds from all walks of life to meet the main enemy of the short position. So other shanzhai coins lost blood and fell, showing a classic bitcoin bloodsucking situation. The shanzhai rose slightly. This is that the off-site reinforcements did not rise. This is that the shanzhai rose separately. This is that the joint forces stormed and fell sharply. This is that the profitable funds fled and fell slightly. Villages have plummeted. This is the contraction front to stop the fall of the cottage. This is the complete collapse of the cottage. It is known that the winning rate of holding the cottage is much higher than that of holding the cottage. It is January, when the two sides fought for the moving average of Bitcoin, we ushered in Satoshi Nakamoto's birthday. According to Satoshi Nakamoto's own birthday when registering an account, today is his birthday. In the tenth chapter of Bitcoin History written by the teaching chain, Satoshi Nakamoto's birthday completely analyzes the context of the metaphor of birthday date filled in by Satoshi Nakamoto. In the last paragraph of the gold robbery, the birthday date is explained, in order to commemorate the date of the promulgation of the presidential decree, to alert the world to the fact that the US government once again looted everyone's wealth through the super-currency, and also to imply that the invention of Bitcoin is intended to solve the problem of de-intermediation payment clearly stated in the white paper, and that is to resist the looting of people's wealth by powerful forces and give everyone a powerful weapon to defend private property rights. Satoshi Nakamoto registered his letter on his blog. The date of birth written in the interest is exactly the month, and the first gospel of Ford tells the date of birth. President Ford signed the public law, the so-called gold legalization bill, which will take effect at the latest on the month, which means that the long-standing gold ban has finally been lifted, and Americans can legally hold and trade gold since 2006. In order to commemorate the re-legalization of gold, to warn people that power can really do whatever it wants, and to imply that gold currency can't go back, we must seek more. Satoshi Nakamoto, a good anti-hegemonic currency, filled in his blog registration information with the birthday year exactly. In the article Happy Birthday of Bitcoin's 10th Anniversary in the long wave of history, the teaching chain summarized the laws and the past events of gold illegality and special exemption. On the month of history, President Roosevelt of the United States signed a government decree requiring American citizens to illegally hold gold. After passing this decree, the US government confiscated all the gold in the hands of all Americans and forcibly converted it into dollars. The U.S. government immediately devalued the dollar, forcibly pushed up the price of gold, devalued the debt of the United States to fight against the Great Depression, which meant that the wealth of Americans was looted overnight. Bitcoin history quoted the contents of the decree in detail, especially according to the presidential executive order issued on, and everyone was required to hand over all the gold coins, bars and vouchers they owned to the branches of the Federal Reserve Bank or any member bank of the Federal Reserve system on or before, which violated the administration. The order will be subject to criminal punishment. According to the provisions of section of the executive order, a fine of $10,000 or imprisonment years or both will be imposed. The history of Bitcoin, which is how the US government forcibly devalues gold, is also introduced. In the following month, US dollars with no gold reserves were issued to forcibly push up the price of gold, which jumped directly from the US dollar ounce to the US dollar ounce. The US dollar immediately depreciated against gold, and Americans can legally own gold again from about 2000, but please note that the law is still valid as law. Gold ownership is only a kind of Amnesty, not a right. The American government or the President of the United States can revoke this Amnesty at any time, so as to dispose of the gold, gold and gold dollars in the hands of any American citizen. The era of legal dollars has ended, and since then, the dollar that has lost its gold constraint has begun to depreciate all the way. As Hayek pointed out, the possibility that people will redeem gold with the currency issued by the banknote issuer at any time is only a disciplinary constraint on the banknote issuer. This can Forcing them to control the amount of money at an appropriate level, the gold standard is only a method that we reluctantly use when we haven't found the discipline to restrain the government. Gold is purely a method to control a certain amount of money. The amount of money is the real factor that determines the value of money. The American government, which manipulates the gold limit, has never given up its continuous suppression of gold. The classic operation year of the Obama administration was introduced in the article "Gold and Gold" on October. The year after the subprime mortgage crisis collapsed because of its greed and leverage, the Dodd-Frank Act aimed at strengthening financial supervision was introduced, which was obviously the fault of financial institutions, but it was forced to throw some pots and take the opportunity to smuggle private goods into the relevant provisions restricting gold trading. Dodd-Frank Act was considered to be the most comprehensive and severe financial reform bill since the Great Depression, and its banner was to protect consumers. At that time, US President Barack Obama signed the bill and made it a formal law. After sending an important notice to customers, it is said that according to the Dodd-Frank Act promulgated by the US Congress, the legality of over-the-counter trading of precious metals will be banned after May, and all the over-the-counter markets of gold and silver will be closed. It is not until more than ten years later that gold has just surpassed the mid-year high, and it has gone through a long healing period in the teaching chain last year's article that the mid-year high is the US dollar ounce. In the past six months, gold has started a retaliatory attack and has made a significant breakthrough. It is probably because of the inspiration of gold that Satoshi Nakamoto deeply realized that it is really going to China. 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台

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