香港Web3大会小作文:市场还没有形成合力的主升浪出现?

币圈资讯 阅读:32 2024-04-22 07:21:58 评论:0
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作者:Haotian 来源:X,@Haotian

结束了3天的香港Web3大会之行,感触良多,千言万语道不尽,就利用细碎时间简单分享下我的感受:

1)从大会的热闹程度,可以很确定市场处于牛市初期,能感受到浓厚的参与热情,但还没有太Fomo。尽管这段时间二级市场持续震荡磨人,美联储降息的预期也延迟了,牛市不确定因素增加了,但一级市场Builder们的参与热情却很确定,这也是这一轮牛市走的足够坚定、持久、磅礴的基础;

2)主会场、分会场的主题分享和Panel、以及周边的社区主导活动等等呈现出分散化、专题化、社区化的形态,因此很难说哪一块就是主流。有人相信Solana能Flip以太坊,有人认为CKB能带动BTC layer2繁荣,也有人钻到AI+DePin方向找Alpha,当然更多的人在以太坊layer2领域死磕坚守等等。似乎每个人心目中都有自己的“主流”,但还没有一个获得全民共识且全民Fomo“主升浪”出现。整个晋西北打成了一锅粥,谁是牵头的还没有决出高下,这恰恰验证了当下还处于牛市初期,还没有一个有绝对话语权的赛道和领头羊出来。

3)整个会场会外Social下来,感觉CEX交易所的权重不那么“凸显”了,也许他们迫于某些原因躲到了暗处。但少了成排成群的西方美女Model和大范围的Shill即视感,放眼望去能吸收到更营养的精神食粮。虽然依然有很多形形色色的技术、社区和行业叙事让人眼花缭乱一头雾水,但明显感觉故事也在认真讲了,市场审美也被抬高了。比特币ETF通过之后,被主流化的不仅仅是BTC本身,还有Crypto从业者的Build心态?其实,市场并不怕讲故事,而恰恰怕市场把韭菜当傻子。

4)围绕“链”的叙事依然是重中之重,无论是ETH layer2 、BTC layer2、高性能layer1、并行EVM、模块化发链、链抽象可交互操作性、AI+Crypto、ZK、DePIN等等,每个叙事方向背后似乎都在围绕“链”infra在做文章。表面上看,行业各方都把开发力量Focus到了“发链”的叙事上,而应用落地方向似乎陷入了停滞?但实际上,应用落地方向其实也很热闹,只不过应用的叙事只有达到Stepn一样的现象级才能有存在感。本身一锁定应用,就得经历拉新、留存、增长等互联网式内卷,而现在市场的mass adoption程度远未到可以卷应用的地步。相反,卷B端服务,可以用模块化资源整合嵌套,用链抽象跨生态组合流动性,可拓展性实在太丰富了。与其说市场偏好讲B端故事,倒不如说现阶段只能讲这些;

5)可以显著感觉到BTC layer2新欢和以太坊layer2旧爱正在展开一场较量,Vitalik提出的layer2-centric故事愿景很美好,但反映到币价和实际交付预期上依然差强人意,也正因为此,BTC layer2才承接了足够大的新市场预期。因此,毫无疑问,BTC layer2吃的就是以太坊layer2落地不及预期的红利。这样内卷当然会有重复造轮子的嫌疑,但别忽略了,玩BTC生态的和玩以太坊生态的用户群体并非百分百重叠,BTC强共识下很可能这轮牛市拉新的核心驱动力量。放长远看,BTC layer2可以衍生出一条独特的UTXO架构新路线,也完全可以组合已经成熟的以太坊layer2生态,我们以Layer2为本位的话,BTC layer2和以太坊layer2并非你死我活的竞争关系,可以明显感觉,双方阵营都在拥抱彼此;

6)确实没有看到创新性和启发性很强的优秀Alpha项目,有人说这是东方力量秀肌肉的舞台,西方力量都集中在数天后的迪拜Token2049。就叙事方向而言,AI、DePIN、ZK,并行EVM,如果不考虑落地,西方力量确实更吸引人一些,毕竟很多西方项目传到华语圈估值就高到可怕;就创新活力而言,铭文市场、BTC layer2、DePIN硬件挖矿,如果不计较Rug摩擦的话,东方力量的财富效应拉新能力的确在驱动着整个行业前进。与其说东方力量和西方力量在暗中较劲,倒不如说是各自都错过了彼此的增长而已。现在的东方铭文和西方MEME力量总会在某个主升浪力量产生后,形成合力。

7)明显感觉优质KOL的话语权变强了,某种程度影响力上超过了部分VC。这根本上源于VC的打法变了,VC联合项目方孵化项目,拉拢交易所攒项目,这一轮VC明显都成了“老韭菜”心态,过去锁仓很久的VC托底筑梦故事,已经不work了。某种程度上,随时想要出逃的钱,就成了烫手山芋,大多数优秀项目并非有钱就能拿到额度,而同时具备一级投资能力和二级带货能力的KOL就成了香饽饽,所以,KOL Round不是凭空来的,很好的补充了VC在一级市场话语权变弱的不足。

8) 在Restaking、模块化等叙事方向的牵引下,项目的资源整合(La Bang Jie Pai)能力愈发凸显了,这无异成为项目方主流技术和发展叙事之外的软实力显现。应该讲,项目方背后的资源攒聚能力会成为其发展预期的强支撑。一旦某个项目有着极强的资源和关系,从商业视角来评判,就已经赢在了起跑线上。同样在讲难落地的故事,用户会倾向哪类项目呢?答案很明显;

9)这一轮有太多,老树发新芽的故事,我个人对此喜闻乐见。虽然新链也有了一键发的条件和环境,但老链的Great Again背后藏着一个个社区的殷切期望,也是一份份本该交付的预期。如果旧链能讲新故事,盘活社区、共识并和新链并驾齐驱,我个人更希望有更多的老链崛起。

10)每次开会都会有各色的FUD声音,当成八卦听听也就罢了。TVL虚假繁荣、DeFi挖矿收益困局、交易所潜在暴雷可能等等,如果你都认同资源整合是现在的市场主旋律,FUD TVL造假这种撕掉行业底裤的行为,并没有任何意义。至于,不确定性下的黑天鹅事件很难避免,但大凡有能力跨越牛熊的项目方和团队,这一轮一定能走得更稳健,成熟。Fud搞不死项目,只能增加一些市场噪音而已。

Note:以上所思所想仅代表个人参会体验和观察视角下的感受,并不能反映香港Web3大会的全貌。但,我希望行业能撕掉小众、骗局的标签,逐渐向趋于大众、成熟的方向发展,我很希望有一天我看不懂这个行业了,但却始终能感受到它的成长。


The author's source ended the day's trip to the Hong Kong conference. I felt a lot, so I used a little time to share my feelings briefly. From the excitement of the conference, I can be sure that the market is in the early stage of the bull market, and I can feel strong enthusiasm for participation, but it is not too much. Although the secondary market continued to fluctuate during this period, the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut was delayed, and the uncertainties in the bull market increased, but the enthusiasm for participation of the primary market was very certain, which is also a firm and lasting bull market. The theme sharing of the basic main venue and the surrounding community-led activities show a decentralized, thematic and community-oriented form, so it is difficult to say which one is the mainstream. Some people believe that it can drive prosperity in Ethereum, and some people find the direction. Of course, more people stick to it in the field of Ethereum, and so on. It seems that everyone has their own mainstream in their minds, but no one has won the consensus of the whole people and the whole northwest of Shanxi has become a pot of porridge. Who is the leader yet? It just proves that there is no track and leader with absolute right to speak out at the beginning of the bull market. When the whole venue comes out, it feels that the weight of the exchange is not so prominent. Maybe they are forced to hide in the dark for some reason, but there are no rows of western beauties and a wide range of visual sense. Looking around, they can absorb more nutritious spiritual food. Although there are still many kinds of technical communities and industry narratives that are dazzling and confused, they obviously feel that the story is also. After the introduction of Bitcoin, it is not only itself but also the practitioners' mentality that has been mainstreamed. In fact, the market is not afraid of telling stories, but it is just afraid that the market will treat leeks as fools. The narrative around the chain is still the most important thing, whether it is high-performance parallel modular hair chain, abstract interoperability and so on. Every narrative direction seems to be around the chain. On the surface, all parties in the industry put their development power on the narrative of hair chain, while the application landing direction seems to fall into a trap. In fact, the application landing direction is actually very lively, but the narrative of the application can only have a sense of existence if it reaches the same phenomenon level. Once the application is locked, it will have to go through Internet-style involution such as pulling new products, retaining growth, etc. Now the market level is far from the point where it can be rolled up. On the contrary, the roll-up service can be integrated with modular resources, nested with chains, abstracted across ecological combinations, and the liquidity scalability is so rich that it is better to say that these can be told at this stage than the market preference. Obviously, I feel that the new love and the old love of Ethereum are in a contest. The vision of the story is beautiful, but it is reflected that the currency price and the actual delivery expectation are still unsatisfactory. It is precisely because of this that I have undertaken a large enough new market expectation, so there is no doubt that I will eat the dividend that Ethereum fell short of expectations. This involution will of course be suspected of making wheels repeatedly, but don't ignore that the user groups who play with ecology and Ethereum ecology are not 100% overlapping. Under the strong consensus, it is very likely that this bull market will pull a new core. In the long run, the driving force can derive a unique structure, and the new route can also completely combine the mature ecology of Ethereum. If we think that the standard is not a life-and-death competitive relationship with Ethereum, we can clearly feel that both camps are embracing each other, and we really haven't seen innovative and inspiring excellent projects. Some people say that this is the stage for the East to show off its muscles. Western forces are concentrated in Dubai a few days later, and the narrative direction is parallel. If we don't consider landing, western forces are really more parallel. Attract some people. After all, the valuation of many western projects spread to the Chinese language circle is terrible. As far as the innovation vitality is concerned, the hardware mining in the inscription market is concerned. If we don't care about friction, the wealth effect of the eastern forces and the ability to pull new ones are really driving the whole industry forward. It is better to say that the eastern forces and the western forces have each missed each other's growth. Now, the eastern inscriptions and the western forces will always form a joint force after a certain rising wave force has emerged, and it is obvious that the right to speak of high quality has become stronger. To some extent, the influence is more than part of it, which is fundamentally due to the change of the style of play. This round has obviously become an old leek mentality. In the past, the story of building a dream at the bottom of the warehouse for a long time has stopped. To some extent, the money that you want to escape at any time has become a hot potato. Most excellent projects do not have the money to get the quota, but those with both the first-level investment ability and the second-level delivery ability have become hot cakes, so it is not a good supplement in the first-level city. The weakness of the right to speak in the field has become more and more prominent under the traction of modularity and other narrative directions. This is tantamount to becoming the mainstream technology of the project side and the soft power outside the development narrative. It should be said that the resource accumulation ability behind the project side will become a strong support for its development expectations. Once a project has strong resources and relationships, it has won at the starting line. It is also telling stories that are difficult to land. What kind of projects will users prefer? The answer is obvious in this round. There are too many stories about old trees sprouting, which I personally like to hear. Although the new chain also has the conditions and environment for one-click development, the ardent expectations of the communities hidden behind the old chain are also the expectations that should have been delivered. If the old chain can tell new stories, revitalize the community consensus and keep pace with the new chain, I personally hope that more old chains will rise, and every meeting will have various voices to listen to as gossip, which is just a false prosperity, mining income dilemma, trading potential thunderstorms and so on. If you all agree. Resource integration is the main theme of the current market. It doesn't make any sense to rip off the underwear of the industry. As for the black swan incident under uncertainty, it is hard to avoid, but all the projects and teams that have the ability to cross the bull and bear will surely become more stable and mature in this round. The undead projects can only increase some market noise. What I think above only represents my personal participation experience and the feelings from the perspective of observation, which can't reflect the whole picture of the Hong Kong conference. But I hope that the industry can tear off the label of niche fraud and gradually develop in the direction of mass maturity. I hope that one day I can't understand this industry, but I can always feel its 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台

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