RWA 是比特币 ETF 的下一步 还是稳定币的魔改版

币圈资讯 阅读:36 2024-04-22 07:12:28 评论:0
美化布局示例

欧易(OKX)最新版本

【遇到注册下载问题请加文章最下面的客服微信】永久享受返佣20%手续费!

APP下载   全球官网 大陆官网

币安(Binance)最新版本

币安交易所app【遇到注册下载问题请加文章最下面的客服微信】永久享受返佣20%手续费!

APP下载   官网地址

火币HTX最新版本

火币老牌交易所【遇到注册下载问题请加文章最下面的客服微信】永久享受返佣20%手续费!

APP下载   官网地址

韭菜从周期中学到的唯一教训,就是没有从历史中吸取到任何教训。

在 Ethena 的高额利息前,Luna-UST 的惨重过往也只是陈年往事,重新回到一场比拼谁跑得快游戏。

即使是 MakerDAO 的 DAI 也难逃诱惑,改变了自己往常 USDC 套壳的低风险套娃,积极拥抱 USDe 的高额回报。

而 Ondo 虽然发行的 USDY 不到三周,TVL 从 1 亿攀升到 2 亿,不过拉上了贝莱德成立的 BUIDL 基金一起抗风险,共同做大做强 RWA 生态。

如我们所见,上述三种都是稳定币,还都是 RWA 的最新发展动态——现实资产上链、链上原生套利、最终反哺到现实资产,形成三个首尾相连但又独立运行的小世界。

RWA 新形式

具体而言,现阶段的 RWA 不只有聚焦稳定币这一个重点,还有以下几个新趋势。

  1. 现实世界以美元计价:现实资产聚焦美债、美元、债券和合规稳定币这四大类资产,与其说是现实资产上链,不如说是美元相关资产上链。

  2. 加密世界的双币本位:比特币和以太坊的地位得到加密世界普遍承认,以太坊不仅作为资产发行链,ETH 也取得等同于“比特币”储备金的作用。

  3. 融合取代变革:传统金融和交易所成为加密货币运行的基础设施,RWA 来源是它们,最终流向也是它们,甚至它们的存在也不再是一个问题,现实的引力终究压低了梦想的头颅。

从美元潮汐到 ETH “本币通缩——再流通”本位

每轮牛熊周期,都是以比特币为开头,然后出现吸储大盘,比如交易所、DeFi 或者稳定币,然后某个项目流动性危机出现,最终全部崩盘。

但是本轮周期与之不同,一方面,场外资金带来了 600 亿元的 ETF 资金,改善了以往的美元降息——加息周期都会在世界范围内造成“潮汐”般的美元荒,比特币充当了蓄水池的作用,适当缓解了这种危害,当然蓄水池还有 10 倍以上的扩充空间。

总结要点 1:比特币具备二象性,即使现实资产,也是加密资产。

这种蓄水池接下来有两种发展路径,一是继续增加比特币的容量,二是寻求更多的 ETF 产品,比如以太坊。

另一方面,以太坊的质押体系造就了场内的“本币通缩——再流通”机制,以 ETH 为计价资产,即使质押发行资产(LSDfi)、再质押发行资产(LRTfi)最终崩盘,但是 ETH 自身的质押收益并不会减少,牛市期间随着使用量的巨幅增加,反而是在通缩增值。

也就是,做多 ETH,美元计价的收益会增加,做空 ETH,ETH 本位计价的收益也不会降低,前提是 ETH 能和比特币一样,成为加密世界的不死鸟。

总结要点 2:只要能穿越牛熊,多空都赚就有可能实现,熊市亏损牛市补回。

现在转换下思路,如果一种东西与美元相等,即美元计价永远是 1:1 锚定,并且使用金银复合本位(BTC+ETH)作为发行准备金,并且和交易所无缝融合,那么这种 RWA 模式下的 USDe 能否穿越牛熊呢?

总结要点 3:不要抵抗中心化交易所,而要将其作为利润来源之一。

我们无法预知未来,只能依据过往去假设未来,并给出自己的看法,USDe 大概率会崩,但是牛市够长的话,可能会平稳的下滑,最终泯然众币矣,如果 ETH 价格急剧崩塌,那 USDe 也会迅速崩塌。

依据以上三个要点,以 USDe 来讲清楚为啥是这个结论。

USDe 原理

USDe 的发行与 ETH 的多空单挂钩,按照 AC 的理论,现货交易就是没有杠杆、或者 1 倍杠杆的永续合约,买入就是做多,卖出就是做空。

USDe 的 Delta 中性也差不多可以这样理解,即抵押物是 stETH 和 BTC 等,相当于买入做多,与之同时,在交易所买入对应的做空比例,一正一反,所谓中性和风险对冲,即是如此。

这里面存在着两个收益,stETH 自带 4% 左右的收益,其次是做空会收到多头给的费率,两相一结合,在牛市期间,ETH 价格会持续上涨,以 USDe 计价的收益率也就高到离谱。

那么风险也就随着而来,就是 ETH 价格下跌,那么如前所述,以 U 计价的收益不仅会消失,甚至在交易所需要给多头费率,资不抵债,瞬间崩盘。

但是这里的生机在于,ETH 价格下跌,stETH 的 ETH 本位收益依然存在,只要苟到牛市,依然可以卖出 ETH 获利,只需要人们坚信如此并不撤资。

在牛市期间,一切都好说,针对 BTC/ETH 等资产,交易所在一定程度上需要空头来维持流动性,再加上拔网线、插针等技术已经无比熟练,不太会计较。

但如我们所见,与其说 USDe 锚定 ETH 衍生品来定价,不如说是依赖交易所来运行,交易所自身就是一个黑箱,这不是接入预言机能解决的问题,何况撸费率养活自己的 USDe 家人们,不知道交易所们作何应对。

USDe 实在是很有创意,忍不住写在文章中部,接下来是 Ondo 的新业态以及 MakerDAO 的DAI 会往何处去的猜测。

其中,Ondo 其实还是更像把美债等资产做成代币化,但是代表了 RWA 挂钩资产类型的全面美元化和“虚拟化”的特点,即如房产等实物资产和其他货币已经不再是未来主要方向。

脱实向虚,快乐升天

而 MakerDAO 代表着链上协议的苦苦挣扎,MakerDAO 通过提案直接买国债还历历在目,没想到 RWA 之路愈发迷惘,到底该上链,还是原生资产下链,还是结合起来搞,也许思路还需要时间去验证。

分野之势,如何与野蛮人周旋

在论述完 BTC/ ETH 的复合本位体系后,海量场外资金的切入也不都是利好,贝莱德、富兰克林邓普顿等资管巨头的资产是比特币市值的十倍以上,但至少跟他们合作有对抗 SEC 监管的底气和源源不断的弹药支持,三国之势已经形成。

  • 传统金融巨头:开辟新战场,不仅停留在期货/现货 ETF 阶段,希望能进入链上市场,进行更多具备创新性的组合实验;

  • RWA 项目方:从加密视角出发,希望和传统金融巨头合作,目标是借壳合规,成为主流化的金融投资选择,而非对抗监管部门,或者说对抗是一种表面姿态,核心还是想被诏安;

  • 监管部门:尽力阻挡,挡不住就寻求控制,OFAC 控制以太坊节点,SEC 控制“证券”定义,国会和美联储主要关注稳定币和交易所,洗钱和非法证券发行是最常用的手段。

从比特币和以太坊的角度来说,监管已经在事实上放行,ETH 现货 ETF 的通过只是时间问题,但是对于更小的项目方而言,并不具备单独对抗监管的能力,委身于传统金融巨头,并主动进行 KYC/AML 等措施,希望降低外人对其金融颠覆者的刻板印象,而是将自身包装成既有体系内的创新者。

或者说涉及到现实资产的都很难,现实引力过于沉重,简单粗暴的来说,可以直接把 RWA 的路线分为三个阶段:

  1. 东方“链改狂潮”,一切都可上链,主打可溯源、可记录,比如公信宝就是如此,最终都是一地鸡毛;

  2. 西方“代币化”("Tokenization"),实物资产、虚拟资产代币化后上链,比如房地产项目 RealT 最为典型,其次还有 Maple 、Centrifuge 等借贷产品。

  3. 其后就是如今的美元金融资产上链,以及 BTC/ETH 的原生资产和既有金融体系的融合发展之势。

以上是我的一家之言,在 RWA.XYZ 的分类中,分为借贷、美债、稳定币和不动产四类,我还是坚持自己的观点,本轮的 RWA 只分为美元相关资产上链,BTC/ETH 下链,以稳定币为主要发行方式,借贷作为补充的发展路径。

但是这里面会存在三方掣肘,分别是 CeFi 的控制欲望,CEX 的作恶冲动,以及监管(SEC)的大手。

以 Ondo 为例,其发行了分别基于美债的 OUSG、生息稳定币 USDY 两种主要产品,未来产品类型会进一步更新,其机制设计都比较类似,都是沿着注册实体、四大审计、银行/机构托管,投资于美元资产路径去发生作用,不再赘述。

OUSG 组件

以 OUSG 为例,其主要资产构成是贝莱德的短期国债 ETF 产品,不过 Ondo 已经和贝莱德深度绑定,会继续推进和贝莱德 RWA 产品 BUIDL 的合作,是最为典型的双向融合的示范。

如果更进一步,可以直接帮老钱管钱,比如 Compound 直接创始人的 Superstate 直接购买美债产品,然后进行代币化发行,过程当然乏味,核心是代表加密世界的已经诞生一群 Old Money,他们已经度过追求高风险和高收益的大航海时代,准备带着劫掠来的金银珠宝上岸岁月静好。

但是源源不断的有生力量并不想直接放弃,比如 MakerDAO 的 DAI 就已经准备迎接 USDe 的高收益,初期将 6 亿 DAI 投入其中,最高可充值至 10 亿美元,不仅 DeFi 能套娃,这稳定币竟然也能成为另一种稳定币的娃,必须要注意,USDe 的本质可不是美元等价物,而是 ETH 波动性等价物。

加密世界面对庞大的现实资产,表现的还稍显稚嫩,和动辄上万亿美元的资管巨头相比,数亿、数十亿的 TVL 简直是没眼看,更重要的问题是,我们究竟是认为 RWA 是未来的重要资产形式,最起码和 ETF 一样主流,还是只是加密圈的单相思,代币炒完利好,剩下一地鸡毛。


The only lesson that leek has learned from the cycle is that it has not learned any lessons from history. The tragic past before the high interest rate was only a long time ago, and it has returned to a game of competing who can run fast. Even if it is, it can't escape the temptation to change its usual low-risk dolls, which actively embrace high returns. Although it has been issued for less than three weeks, it has climbed from 100 million to 100 million, but it has joined the fund established by BlackRock to resist risks and make the ecology bigger and stronger together. As we have seen, all the above three are stable currencies. All of them are the latest development trends. The original arbitrage on the chain of real assets is finally fed back to real assets to form three small world new forms that are connected end to end but run independently. Specifically, at this stage, the focus is not only on the stable currency, but also the following new trends. The real world is denominated in dollars, and the real assets focus on US debt, US dollar bonds and compliant stable currencies. These four categories of assets are not so much real assets as dollar-related assets, but the dual-currency standard bitcoin and ether in the encryption world. The status of Ethereum is generally recognized in the cryptocurrency world. Ethereum not only serves as an asset distribution chain, but also achieves the function equivalent to bitcoin reserve. Traditional finance and exchanges have become the source of infrastructure for cryptocurrency operation, which is that they eventually flow, and even their existence is no longer a problem. The gravity of reality eventually depresses the head of dreams, from the dollar tide to the local currency deflation and re-circulation standard. Every bull-bear cycle starts with bitcoin, and then there is a big market for absorbing and storing, such as Exchange or stable currency, and then a project liquidity crisis eventually collapsed, but this cycle is different. On the one hand, off-exchange funds brought hundreds of millions of dollars to improve the previous cycle of reducing interest rates and raising interest rates in the US dollar, which will cause a tidal shortage of dollars around the world. Bitcoin acts as a reservoir to appropriately alleviate this harm. Of course, the reservoir has more than twice the expansion space. Summary points: Bitcoin has duality, even if the real assets are encrypted assets, this reservoir is next. There are two development paths: one is to continue to increase the capacity of Bitcoin, and the other is to seek more products, such as Ethereum. On the other hand, Ethereum's pledge system has created a deflation and re-circulation mechanism of local currency in the market, thinking that even if the pledged assets are pledged to issue assets, they will eventually collapse, but their pledge income will not decrease during the bull market, but will increase with the huge increase in usage, that is, the income from multi-dollar pricing will increase and the income from short-selling standard pricing will not decrease. Mention that it can become an immortal bird in the encrypted world like Bitcoin. Summary points: As long as it can cross the bull and bear, it is possible to make up for the bear market losses. Now change the thinking. If something is equal to the US dollar, that is, the US dollar pricing is always anchored and the gold and silver composite standard is used as the issuance reserve and seamlessly integrated with the exchange, can it cross the bull and bear in this mode? Summary points: Don't resist the centralized exchange, but use it as one of the sources of profit. We can't predict it. In the future, we can only assume the future according to the past and give our own opinions. However, if the bull market is long enough, it may decline steadily and eventually disappear. If the price collapses sharply, it will also collapse rapidly. According to the above three points, it is clear why the issuance of this conclusion principle is linked to the long and short orders. According to the theory, spot trading is a perpetual contract without leverage or double leverage. Buying is to do more and selling is to be short. It can also be understood that collateral is neutral. Equal to buying long and buying long at the same time in the exchange, the corresponding short-selling ratio is one positive and one negative, which is the so-called neutrality and risk hedging. There are two benefits, the second is that short-selling will receive the rate given by bulls. During the bull market, the price will continue to rise, and the rate of return will be ridiculously high. Then the risk will follow, and the price will fall. As mentioned above, the rate of return will not only disappear, but even in the exchange, it is necessary to give money to bulls. Debt-paying collapses in an instant, but the vitality here lies in the fact that the standard income of falling prices still exists. As long as we go to a bull market, we can still sell and make profits. We only need people to firmly believe that this is the case and not withdraw funds. During the bull market, everything is easy to say. In order to maintain liquidity, the exchange needs short positions to a certain extent, and the technology such as unplugging the network cable pins is extremely skilled and not very accounting. But as we can see, it depends on the exchange to operate rather than anchoring derivatives. The exchange itself is a black box. This is not a problem that can be solved by accessing the prediction machine. Moreover, it is very creative for the families who support themselves at a high rate not to know how the exchanges will respond. They can't help but write in the middle of the article about the new format and the speculation about where they will go. In fact, it is more like making assets such as US debt into tokens, but it represents the characteristics of full dollarization and virtualization of linked asset types, that is, physical assets such as real estate and other currencies are no longer the main direction in the future, but are replaced by virtual happiness. The struggle of the agreement on the chain is still vivid, and the road to buying government bonds directly through the proposal is becoming more and more confusing. Whether to go up or down with the original assets or combine them may take time to verify how to deal with the barbarians. After the discussion of the compound standard system, the cut-in of massive off-site funds is not all beneficial. The assets of BlackRock Franklin Templeton and other asset management giants are more than ten times the market value of Bitcoin, but at least cooperation with them has the confidence and resistance to supervision. A steady stream of ammunition to support the Three Kingdoms has formed a new battlefield for traditional financial giants, not only staying in the futures spot stage, but also hoping to enter the chain market for more innovative combination experiments. From the perspective of encryption, the project side hopes to cooperate with traditional financial giants. Is the goal of backdoor compliance a mainstream financial investment choice rather than confronting the regulatory authorities, or is confrontation a superficial gesture, or is it the core to seek control and control of the Ethereum if the regulatory authorities in Zhaoan try their best to stop it? Definition of Node-controlled Securities Congress and the Federal Reserve are mainly concerned with stabilizing currency and exchange money laundering and illegal securities issuance, which are the most commonly used means. From the perspective of Bitcoin and Ethereum, it is only a matter of time before supervision has actually released the spot, but for smaller project parties, they do not have the ability to fight supervision alone, commit themselves to traditional financial giants and take the initiative to take other measures, hoping to reduce the stereotype of outsiders on their financial disruptors, but package themselves as innovators in existing systems or real assets, which is difficult to achieve. In a simple and rude way, gravity is too heavy. 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台

文字格式和图片示例

注册有任何问题请添加 微信:MVIP619 拉你进入群

弹窗与图片大小一致 文章转载注明 网址:https://netpsp.com/?id=58004

美化布局示例

欧易(OKX)最新版本

【遇到注册下载问题请加文章最下面的客服微信】永久享受返佣20%手续费!

APP下载   全球官网 大陆官网

币安(Binance)最新版本

币安交易所app【遇到注册下载问题请加文章最下面的客服微信】永久享受返佣20%手续费!

APP下载   官网地址

火币HTX最新版本

火币老牌交易所【遇到注册下载问题请加文章最下面的客服微信】永久享受返佣20%手续费!

APP下载   官网地址
可以去百度分享获取分享代码输入这里。
声明

1.本站遵循行业规范,任何转载的稿件都会明确标注作者和来源;2.本站的原创文章,请转载时务必注明文章作者和来源,不尊重原创的行为我们将追究责任;3.作者投稿可能会经我们编辑修改或补充。

发表评论
平台列表
美化布局示例

欧易(OKX)

  全球官网 大陆官网

币安(Binance)

  官网

火币(HTX)

  官网

Gate.io

  官网

Bitget

  官网

deepcoin

  官网
关注我们

若遇到问题,加微信客服---清歌

搜索
排行榜
扫一扫,加我为微信好友加我为微信好友