美核心通胀升温促使比特币回调
作者：刘教链
当地时间2月13号下午1:30，美国劳工统计局（BLS）发布了最新的1月份核心通胀数据。
2024 年 1 月，剔除食品和能源等波动性项目的美国核心消费者价格环比上涨 0.4%，较前值 0.3% 的涨幅有所加快，高于市场预期的 0.3%。这标志着核心消费价格自 2023 年 4 月以来的最大涨幅，对美国经济逐步通货紧缩的趋势提出了挑战，并增强了美联储议息会议中鹰派的理由。
这一增长主要归因于住房成本（0.6% 对 2023 年 12 月的前值 0.4%）和运输服务成本（1% 对前值 0.1%）的加速上涨，从而拉高了扣除能源服务的服务消费价格指数（0.7% 对前值 0.4%）。这抵消了商品通胀的放缓，如二手车和卡车（-3.4% 对前值 0.6%）、服装（-0.7% 对前值 0%）和医疗保健商品（-0.6% 对前值 -0.1%）的 CPI 均有所下降。
这么一来，本来看上去有望逐步缓解的通胀压力骤然变成自2023年6月以来大半年稳步增长的趋势了，看下图：
这可不太妙！
如此不仅一举扭转了9号BLS下修12月通胀数据给市场带来的美联储不必担心通胀的信心，而且更让人对于此前下修12月数据是不是正好反衬出1月份的通胀反弹有些心生疑窦。
市场担心通胀数据的反弹会令美联储重新紧张，从而进一步推迟降息的步伐，并且更加不会愿意回应市场对于及早结束量化紧缩的呼声。
上个月一度高达50%以上的3月份降息概率，也已降至不足10%。5月份的降息概率，也大幅下降。
一度狂飙猛进，刚刚突破5000点历史性新高度的美股，闻讯骤然暴跌，迅速跌至5000点下方。
刚刚突破5万刀的比特币，也随之跌落5万刀，再失高地。
伴随着币圈国人回家过年拉人入局而发动的春节行情，就要这样被美联储终结了吗？：）
Author Liu Jiaolian On the afternoon of June, local time, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics released the latest monthly core inflation data. Excluding volatile items such as food and energy, the core consumer prices in the United States rose from the previous month, and the increase was faster than the market expectation. This indicates that the biggest increase in core consumer prices since June has challenged the trend of gradual deflation in the US economy and strengthened the hawkish reasons in the Fed's interest rate meeting. This increase is mainly attributed to the housing cost. The acceleration of the monthly value and transportation service cost to the previous value has raised the service consumer price index excluding energy services to the previous value, which has offset the slowdown of commodity inflation, such as the decline of second-hand cars and trucks to the previous value, clothing to the previous value and medical care products to the previous value. As a result, the inflationary pressure that was expected to gradually ease suddenly turned into a steady growth trend since June, which is not good, so it not only reversed the monthly inflation data to the market in one fell swoop. The market brings the confidence that the Fed doesn't have to worry about inflation, and it also makes people wonder whether the previous revised monthly data just reflects the inflation rebound in January. The market is worried that the rebound of inflation data will make the Fed nervous again, thus further delaying the pace of interest rate cuts, and it is even more unwilling to respond to the market's call for an early end to quantitative austerity. The probability of interest rate cuts in months that were once as high as above last month has also dropped sharply, and the probability of interest rate cuts in months that have just soared. The U.S. stock market, which broke a historic new height, suddenly plunged and quickly fell below the point. Bitcoin, which just broke through 10,000 yuan, also fell 10,000 yuan and lost its height. Will the Spring Festival market launched by the people in the currency circle be ended by the Federal Reserve? 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台
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