当Web3叙事寒冬到来 游戏是否是冬日里的“一把火”?

币圈资讯 阅读:40 2024-04-22 04:56:32 评论:0
美化布局示例

欧易(OKX)最新版本

【遇到注册下载问题请加文章最下面的客服微信】永久享受返佣20%手续费!

APP下载   全球官网 大陆官网

币安(Binance)最新版本

币安交易所app【遇到注册下载问题请加文章最下面的客服微信】永久享受返佣20%手续费!

APP下载   官网地址

火币HTX最新版本

火币老牌交易所【遇到注册下载问题请加文章最下面的客服微信】永久享受返佣20%手续费!

APP下载   官网地址

以太坊创始人Vitalik在2019年曾说:金融与游戏会是区块链最先落地的场景。

在DeFi金融创新驱动上个周期后,沉寂近两年的Web3游戏板块,如今似乎也在复苏。无论是频繁获得融资,还是多款游戏先后公测,Web3游戏板块进入2024年后热闹非凡。但作为Web3一级市场中的“香饽饽”,游戏板块如今的“火”究竟是“真火”还是“虚火”?Web3游戏在2024年又有哪些值得关注的变化?

一、Web3游戏,好玩才是硬道理

自P2E(Play to Earn)游戏衰落以来,围绕Web3游戏的未来方向有众多讨论。其中,以下两种方向最受关注:朝着3A(注1)级制作及可玩性方向改进,希望通过高质量游戏品质吸引更多玩家的Web2.5游戏;以及2023年兴起的,试图从公平透明且符合自主世界精神切入的全链游戏。

Web2.5游戏和全链游戏孰优孰劣,是当下各方热议的话题。尽管全链游戏概念非常火热,但笔者认为Web2.5游戏在2024年更值得关注,也更有希望实现Web3游戏的大规模用户采用和转化。

最直接的原因是,与全链游戏相比,Web2.5游戏更像是应该出现在2020s的游戏。下图左边是某全链游戏X的游戏界面;右边则是近期热度很高的Web2.5游戏Y的游戏画面,两者间的画面差距一目了然。尽管在游戏世界观方面,两个游戏各有特色,但从游戏制作、操作流畅度以及可玩性等方面看,后者通常都会具有显著优势。

可玩性是此前限制Web3游戏难以获取大规模玩家的主要弊病。单调的玩法和粗糙的画面,经常让玩家在参与Web3游戏时闪回十几年前,唯一具有吸引力的可能就是赚钱打金了。但对普通玩家来说,评价一款游戏优劣的硬标准从来只有一个,就是好不好玩;过度注重“Fi”的Web3游戏只能吸引打金人群,却无法完成Web2用户的大规模转化。

全链游戏所宣扬的公平性、透明性和自主性或许是未来游戏的演化方向,但短期内受限于技术无法构建复杂游戏场景,只能满足低运算和无低延迟要求的游戏类型,使全链游戏难以真正吸引足够的真实玩家。毕竟除非是狂热爱好者,正常情况下在3A大作和像素游戏的选择中,大部分玩家还是会选择前者。如今的全链游戏就如同2018年左右的DeFi,概念大于实际,仍需时间去迭代和积累。

所以仅看2024年,如果Web3游戏迎来爆发,其驱动力仍会主要来自Web2.5游戏。而Web2.5游戏赛道在2024年也可能会出现一些变化:

1、在可玩性和游戏性方面继续向Web2靠拢 

我们始终认为,Web3技术向现实渗透的最佳状态是“润物细无声”。虽然在某种程度上,Web2.5游戏与Web2游戏的关系相比于替代,更像是一种补充,但如果能通过对经济系统和游戏后端的改造,在不影响可玩性和游戏性的情况下,让玩家适应Web3技术给游戏系统带来的改变,或许是更好的选择。Web2.5游戏在2024年将继续在游戏内容及用户体验等方面加速融合Web2游戏,并将Web3的token模型逐步融入游戏,实现游戏内交易的原生化,通过内外交易平台融合实现资产便捷流通。

 2、与AI融合将成为Web2.5游戏在2024年的主要叙事 

无论是基于AI训练NPC,还是通过AI加持让游戏更真实,或者通过AI改写游戏逻辑,让游戏充满更多不确定性和随机性,都会使Web2.5游戏与AI碰撞出不一样的火花。正如前盛大游戏联合创始人谭群钊接受媒体时表达的那样,推动游戏行业发展重点实际在于技术变革,如今Web3和AI正在颠覆了游戏产业,将会使游戏产业在未来两年迎来黄金时期。

3、Web2.5游戏项目将加速向平台化和生态化演变 

每款游戏都有生命周期,而Web2.5游戏的生命周期不仅受游戏自身影响,还受到整个Web3市场走势的影响。相较于单一游戏项目,游戏平台和游戏生态具有更强的抗风险能力,生命周期更长,也因此具有更大试错空间和发展潜力。众多Web3游戏平台如今也正积极构建游戏生态,向游戏平台转变,从而摆脱对单一游戏的依赖。从2023年的融资市场也能看出这一趋势:接近40%以上的Web3游戏赛道的被投项目是游戏工作室以及游戏服务平台,针对单款游戏的投资趋向谨慎。

或许在未来,全链游戏将会成为Web3游戏的主流,但站在2024年,我们相信Web2.5游戏才是当下我们期待的答案。

二、叙事“寒冰期到来,Web3游戏能否成为冬日里的“一把火”?

抛开Web2.5游戏与全链游戏之争,不妨从数据视角来看Web3游戏的基本盘,再来评估如今的这把火究竟程度几何。<span rootId":"CjMmdfzKFoRfE7xkLV6uysOos1d","text":{"initialAttributedTexts":{"text":{"0":"二、叙事“寒冰期到来,Web3游戏能否成为冬日里的“一把火”?"},"attribs":{"0":"*0+v"}},"apool":{"numToAttrib":{"0":["author","7033220002257829893"]},"nextNum":1}},"type":"heading3","referenceRecordMap":{},"extra":{"mention_page_title":{},"external_mention_url":{}},"isKeepQuoteContainer":false,"isFromCode":false,"selection":[{"id":25,"type":"text","selection":{"start":0,"end":31},"recordId":"VRGJdJSeboNlAuxfAT8uhWSWsJe"}],"payloadMap":{},"isCut":false}' >

在Axie、Stepn 等P2E(Play to Earn)创新引发热潮后,Web3游戏板块在过去两年一直不温不火。但从链上数据看,无论是活跃地址数还是交易量,游戏却依旧是Web3最活跃的领域:日均独立活跃钱包(UAW)维持在600万左右,链上交易额日均1亿美金左右,远超DeFi及其他板块。从2023年8月开始,游戏板块UAW更是迎来大幅增长,到2024年2月已超过1,200万,较2023年同期上涨超过142.44%。

在一级市场,Web3游戏同样表现不俗。据OKX Venture不完全统计,在2023年前三季度,Web3行业共发生投融资事件923起,其中游戏赛道的投融资事件为91起,占比达9.86%。尽管受市场低迷影响,融资金额较前两年出现大幅下滑,但融资占比相对稳定,维持在10%左右。顶级投资机构的积极参与,表明了资本市场对于Web3游戏板块的长期看好。

不过,相较于在链上数据和一级市场的亮眼表现,市场更期待Web3游戏在2024年迎来整体爆发。对比其他板块,我们认为Web3游戏有潜力成为新周期中的重点爆发领域。其原因在于:

从叙事层面看,Web3游戏叙事足够承载破圈与增长的希望。BitMEX联合创始人Arthur Hayes日前曾发文称,在加密市场中叙事的重要性往往超过技术本身。我们并不完全同意这一观点,但对叙事的重要性表示认同。Web3行业正进入叙事“寒冰期”,资金和项目更多聚集在基建层面,在大规模用户采用和转化叙事方面缺乏新的增长点。无论是借助Web3技术重塑游戏行业,还是通过游戏带着Web3破圈渗透,全球近30亿的Web2游戏玩家和近6亿的Web3用户,都让Web3游戏拥有具有强大的叙事基础。

尽管以Axie Infinity和StepN为代表的P2E游戏,因偏庞氏的经济模型而在短暂爆发后宣告失败,但从整体看,更多Web3原生项目方正站在前人肩膀上,积极探索更符合市场需求的游戏产品;越来越多拥有丰富经验的传统游戏巨头也逐渐进入并开始打造3A链游,可能在可玩性方面给Web3游戏带来质的飞跃:这些都让游戏板块难以再被忽略。根据市场研究提供商 Markets and Markets 此前的一份报告,全球区块链游戏市场2022 年规模为46 亿美元,预计到 2027 年将增长至 657 亿美元。

从现实层面看,作为一个极度烧钱和耗时的行业,游戏板块爆发需要资本、时间和技术等多重因素的共同推动。而当时间行进到2024年,这些要素似乎正在聚集。模块化公链、AA钱包、ZK、L2等技术基础设施的完善让Web3游戏有了更强支撑,过去数年Web3游戏在一级市场的亮眼表现也让很多项目方有了足够的资本与时间去打磨和测试游戏产品。

当然,这些也让市场对Web3游戏在新周期中的表现更为期待。毕竟经历数年时间的积累与多轮融资,很多Web3游戏似乎到了该交“成绩单”的时候了。


注1:3A游戏是电子游戏产业中的非正式分类,通常指高投入、高品质和高销量的游戏类型。


The founder of Ethereum said in 2006 that finance and games would be the first scene in the blockchain. After the last cycle was driven by financial innovation, the game sector, which had been silent for nearly two years, now seems to be recovering. Whether it has been frequently financed or a variety of games have been publicly tested, the game sector has been very lively after entering the year, but as a beacon game sector in the primary market, what changes are worthy of attention in 2006? Fun is the last word since the decline of the game. There are many discussions on the future direction of the game, among which the following two directions are the most concerned: the game that hopes to attract more players through high-quality game quality, and the full-chain game and the full-chain game that emerged in 2000 and tried to cut into the spirit of the independent world are hot topics at present. Although the concept of full-chain game is very hot, the author thinks that the game is more worthy of attention in 2000 and is more likely to be adopted by large-scale users. And the most direct reason is that compared with full-chain games, the game is more like the game that should appear. On the left is the game interface of a full-chain game, and on the right is the game screen of a recent hot game. The picture gap between the two is clear at a glance. Although the two games have their own characteristics in terms of game world outlook, the latter usually has obvious advantages in terms of game production, operation fluency and playability. Playability is the main drawback of the previous restrictions on the game's difficulty in obtaining large-scale players. The new gameplay and rough pictures often make players flashback to more than ten years ago when they participate in the game. The only attractive possibility is to make money and play gold. But for ordinary players, there is always only one hard standard to evaluate the pros and cons of a game, that is, whether it is fun or not. The game that pays too much attention can only attract people who play gold but cannot complete the large-scale transformation of users. The fairness, transparency and autonomy advocated by the whole chain game may be the evolution direction of the future game, but it is limited by technology and it is impossible to build a complex game field in the short term. Scenery can only meet the requirements of low computation and no low delay, which makes it difficult for full-chain games to really attract enough real players. After all, unless they are enthusiasts, most players will still choose the former in the choice of masterpieces and pixel games under normal circumstances. Today's full-chain games are like the concept of years or so, which still needs time to iterate and accumulate. Therefore, if the game breaks out, its driving force will still mainly come from the game, and some changes may occur in the game track in 2008. We always think that the best way for technology to penetrate into reality is to moisten things quietly. Although the relationship between games is more like a supplement than substitution to some extent, it may be a better choice if players can adapt to the changes brought by technology to the game system without affecting playability and playability through the transformation of the economic system and the back end of the game. It will be the main narrative of the game in 2008 to gradually integrate the new model into the game to realize the original biochemistry of in-game trading, and to realize the convenient circulation and integration of assets through the integration of internal and external trading platforms. Whether it is based on training or blessing to make the game more realistic or rewriting the game logic to make the game full of more uncertainty and randomness, it will make the game and collision have different sparks, as Tan Qunzhao, the former co-founder of Shanda Games, expressed when he accepted the media, to promote the development of the game industry. Nowadays, technological changes are subverting the game industry, which will usher in a golden age in the next two years. Game projects will accelerate to the platform and ecological evolution. Every game has a life cycle, and the life cycle of the game is not only affected by the game itself, but also by the trend of the whole market. Compared with a single game project, the game platform and game ecology have stronger anti-risk ability, and the life cycle is longer, so there is more room for trial and error and development potential. Many game platforms are now. Actively build the game ecology and change to the game platform, so as to get rid of the dependence on a single game. From the financing market in, we can also see that this trend is close to the above. The invested projects of the game track are game studios and game service platforms, and the investment in a single game tends to be cautious. Perhaps in the future, the full-chain game will become the mainstream of the game, but in 2006, we believe that the game is the answer we are looking forward to. Second, can the game become a fire in winter when the ice age comes? The battle of drama might as well look at the basic disk of the game from the perspective of data, and then evaluate the extent of the fire today. Geometry II Narrative: Can the game become a fire in winter when the ice age comes? The game sector has been tepid in the past two years after the innovation has triggered a boom, but from the data on the chain, whether it is the number of active addresses or the transaction volume, the game is still the most active field. The daily average independent active wallet is maintained at around 10,000, and the daily transaction volume on the chain is about 100 million US dollars, far exceeding that of other sectors since the beginning of the game in June. According to incomplete statistics, in the first three quarters of last year, there were a total of investment and financing events in the industry, among which the investment and financing events in the game track accounted for a large proportion. Although the financing amount dropped sharply compared with the previous two years due to the downturn in the market, the financing proportion remained relatively stable, and the active participation of top investment institutions showed that the capital market was optimistic about the game sector for a long time, but compared with the chain. Compared with other sectors, we think that the game has the potential to become a key outbreak area in the new cycle. The reason is that from the narrative level, the game narrative is enough to bear the hope of breaking the circle and growth. The co-founder recently issued a document saying that the importance of narrative in the encryption market often exceeds the technology itself. We do not fully agree with this view, but we agree that the industry is entering a narrative ice age. Projects are more concentrated in infrastructure, lacking new growth points in large-scale user adoption and narrative transformation. Whether it is to reshape the game industry with the help of technology or to infiltrate nearly 100 million gamers and nearly 100 million users around the world through games, the game has a strong narrative foundation. Although the game represented by Hehe failed after a short-term outbreak due to the partial Ponzi economic model, on the whole, more original projects are standing on the shoulders of predecessors and actively exploring game products that are more in line with market demand. More and more traditional game giants with rich experience are gradually entering and starting to build chain games, which may be playable. 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台

文字格式和图片示例

注册有任何问题请添加 微信:MVIP619 拉你进入群

弹窗与图片大小一致 文章转载注明 网址:https://netpsp.com/?id=57538

美化布局示例

欧易(OKX)最新版本

【遇到注册下载问题请加文章最下面的客服微信】永久享受返佣20%手续费!

APP下载   全球官网 大陆官网

币安(Binance)最新版本

币安交易所app【遇到注册下载问题请加文章最下面的客服微信】永久享受返佣20%手续费!

APP下载   官网地址

火币HTX最新版本

火币老牌交易所【遇到注册下载问题请加文章最下面的客服微信】永久享受返佣20%手续费!

APP下载   官网地址
可以去百度分享获取分享代码输入这里。
声明

1.本站遵循行业规范,任何转载的稿件都会明确标注作者和来源;2.本站的原创文章,请转载时务必注明文章作者和来源,不尊重原创的行为我们将追究责任;3.作者投稿可能会经我们编辑修改或补充。

发表评论
平台列表
美化布局示例

欧易(OKX)

  全球官网 大陆官网

币安(Binance)

  官网

火币(HTX)

  官网

Gate.io

  官网

Bitget

  官网

deepcoin

  官网
关注我们

若遇到问题,加微信客服---清歌

搜索
排行榜
扫一扫,加我为微信好友加我为微信好友