牛市来了?比特币很热 我很冷

币圈资讯 阅读:35 2024-04-22 04:50:36 评论:0
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作者:Climber,比特币买卖交易网

2月28日,比特币上涨触达64000美元,距离2021年11月的历史最高点69000美元仅一步之遥。

这波行情来的颇为迅猛,从去年9月份开始,BTC价格从25000美元附近一路上涨,六个月时间里BTC涨幅高达176%。

当几乎所有人都在高喊欢呼币圈牛市已来、不再套人的时候,一个残酷的事实是:坐拥1170个币种的Binance仅有7个代币突破了上轮牛市的前高,占比仅为0.598%!

vdxqhdF8qushhtblLGQI08kwcQBMQx3PfVr4qdE3.png

理论上来说,如果投资者在上波牛市最高点买入的话,尚未解套的人数占比高达99.402%!

0Mh67yhwXSG0lCjLN8rMt3m9uNrgLn6MHLBpedM8.png

笔者梳理Binance平台1170个币种后仅找到7个超越了上轮牛市的前高,严格来算的话还要剔除TWT,因为TWT是在2022年12月份超越的,并且目前币价已较高点下跌了57.14%。

从上图中我们可以看到,破前高的币种普遍距此前高点涨幅不大,即使有着283.53%涨幅的TRB也是因为背后有着操盘手的存在。所以理论上来说,持有以上币种但买在前高的投资者,收益可谓微薄。

但是对于以上币种的投资者来说,还算幸运的一类,起码已经回本。去除TWT外,几乎都付出了两年的时间成本,有的甚至是两年半。

再通过分析项目类型我们可以发现,代币所涉板块有预言机、AI、模块化、BTC L2、物联网、钱包,其中多个项目为本轮行情的热门叙事概念。由此看来,炒新不炒旧的投资逻辑依然适用于币圈。

小结

这波BTC价格上涨确实惊人,照此速度冲击历史最高点指日可待。但是在BTC上涨的过程中包括笔者在内的不少投资者感到,自己并没有赚到钱。好像牛市来了,但又没有全来。

一位有着币圈六年投资经验的加密从业者对笔者这样说道:我上轮买的LTC、NEAR、YGG现在还亏着90%,比特币确实很热,但我感觉很冷。


The author's Bitcoin trading network rose to reach the US dollar on March, and it was only one step away from the historical peak of the US dollar in June. This wave of market has come quite rapidly. Since last year, the price has been rising all the way from the US dollar, and the increase has been as high as six months. When almost everyone is shouting and cheering that the bull market in the currency circle has come no longer to trap people, it is a cruel fact that only one token with one currency has broken through the previous high proportion of the last bull market. Only in theory, if investors are the highest in the last bull market. The number of people who have not yet solved the problem is as high as the number of people who have bought at the point. After combing the platforms, the author only found one currency that surpassed the previous bull market. Strictly speaking, it has to be eliminated because it was surpassed in January and the current currency price has fallen from a high point. From the above figure, we can see that the currencies that broke the previous high generally did not increase much from the previous high point. Even if there were traders behind them, theoretically, the income of investors who held the above currencies but bought the previous high was meager. For investors in the above currencies, they are lucky, except that they have at least gone back to their original capital. Almost all of them have spent two years, and some even two and a half years. By analyzing the types of projects, we can find that the plates involved in tokens have predictive machines, modular Internet of Things wallets, and many of them are popular narrative concepts of this round of market. From this point of view, the investment logic of speculating the new and not speculating the old is still applicable to the currency circle. This wave of price increases is really amazing, and it is just around the corner to hit the highest point in history at this speed. In the process of rising, many investors, including the author, feel that they have not made any money. It seems that a bull market has come, but not all of them have come. An encryption practitioner with six years' investment experience in the currency circle told the author that I still owe bitcoin in the last round, but I feel very cold. 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台

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