比特币距离 ETF“流动性危机”还有 6 个月时间——新分析

作者：Web3前沿

一位分析师表示，比特币 ETF 正在吸纳可供购买的 BTC，供应动态的临界点将于今年到来。

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一位行业分析师表示，如果机构资金继续流入，到 9 月份，中国将面临“卖方流动性危机”。

在 3 月 12 日的 X帖子中，链上分析平台 CryptoQuant 的创始人兼首席执行官 Ki Young Ju 预测“六个月内”将出现 BTC 供应分水岭。

Ki：当 ETF 继续流动时，比特币空头“无法获胜”

行业参与者表示，随着美国现货比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）的势头增强，比特币作为一种机构投资配置才刚刚开始。

目前，它们持有近 300 亿美元的资产，成为历史上推出的最成功的 ETF。

然而，如果这种趋势持续下去，可能会出现一种新现象，即没有足够的比特币来满足需求。

“在比特币 ETF 现货流入停止之前，空头无法赢得这场游戏，”Ki 总结道。

他指出，上周仅 ETF 就储存了超过 30,000 枚 BTC，而交易所和矿工钱包里有 300 万枚 BTC，供应引发的价格冲击的可能性变得显而易见。

“上周，现货 ETF 净流量超过 3 万比特币。交易所和矿工等已知实体持有约 300 万个 BTC，其中美国实体持有 150 万个 BTC。”

“按照这个速度，我们将在 6 个月内看到卖方流动性危机。”

灰度比特币信托基金（GBTC）继续逆势上行，每日资金流出量经常达到 5 亿美元。

受欢迎的评论员 WhalePanda 指出，考虑到自 1 月份 ETF 推出以来 BTC 价格上涨，GBTC 减少的 BTC 持有量的美元价值实际上几乎没有下降。

“GBTC 再次出现小问题，流出 4.94 亿美元。谢谢巴里。他们现在的价格低于 40 万比特币，”他在 X 帖子中写道，指的是灰度母公司数字货币集团前首席执行官巴里·西尔伯特 (Barry Silbert)。

“问题在于，随着价格上涨和大量资金外流，他们持有的美元仍与我们开始时的水平相同。”

140 万比特币还剩多少？

Ki预测，当ETF需求的临界点到来时，BTC价格的影响可能会超出市场预期。

“一旦发生卖方流动性危机，由于卖方流动性有限且订单量较少，其下一个周期顶部可能会超出我们的预期，”他总结道。

Ki 显示，由所谓的“累积地址”（仅进行入站交易的钱包）持有的 BTC 呈持续广泛上涨趋势，在“危机”爆发之前，这一数字仍需要翻倍。

据 报道，随着比特币创下历史新高，累积地址持有量最近开始降温。

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