Helium Mobile沉寂之后:飞轮再度开启

币圈资讯 阅读:31 2024-04-22 04:36:42 评论:0
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前言

要想探究Helium Mobile的发展潜力,我们需要先去探究Helium Mobile本身具有的特质。毫无疑问,Helium Mobile是在FutureMoney Group关注的List里,最具破圈潜质,成为现实世界普及的Web3 Mass Adoption之一。因此我们也对Helium Mobile的未来发展路径高度看好,尽管遭遇币价滑铁卢,但目前正在重新崛起,甚至未来的影响力将超过Axie和Stepn。

本文将从Helium Mobile的市场潜力、挖矿规则、与HNT的关系和代币经济学方面展开讨论。

市场潜力以及Solana和DePIN双叙事赋能

Helium市场潜力

据JDPower的统计,2023年美国用户在电信套餐上每月成本在157美元,Helium Mobile的20美元套餐相比更具价格优势。

在市场策略上,Helium Mobile具有早期Uber通过降价烧钱抢占市场的味道,但由于代币经济学的存在,并不会让Helium Mobile真正背上沉重的成本负担。这一点是现实世界电信企业难以复现的优势。

用户参与基础设施构建和潜在代币收益性是Mobile区别于传统运营商的商业模式。通过有效的代币奖励激励,以及极具市场竞争力的电话套餐服务,在最初的几个月里,Helium 5G网络的覆盖范围已经达到了美国一些最大的CBRS网络多年来才完成的目标,在美国1,200多个城市部署了7,000多个小型蜂窝无线电。

在飞轮中,项目用户数量较少,难以启动是许多项目遇到的问题。Helium Mobile通过与美国传统电信巨头T-Mobile签署的5年合作协议,确保更多用户的进入以及用户体验的优化。当Helium Mobile的用户在无Helium网络覆盖的地方,将会自动切换到T-Mobile网络。

Helium Mobile对于终端用户的意义在于套餐价格优势以及额外收益的可能,而与T-Mobile达成战略合作,则意味着Helium Mobile拥有了稳定的网络服务,有利于市场的进一步扩展,以及用户服务体验的保障。

Helium Mobile的数据增长迅猛

2024年2月26日,Coinbase上线Mobile,标志着Helium Mobile正式进入了加密货币世界的主流交易市场。相较于0.000076的历史最低点,Mobile已经获得了102倍的最大涨幅。从发展速度来看,Helium Mobile的数据增长较为迅猛,目前,5G活跃节点数量为12398个,相较于去年8月6400个节点的数量,增长近一半,几乎以每月1000个节点的速度在增加。

从实际用户数量来看,截至今年1月5日,Helium Mobile的用户数量已经超过3万人。截至2月27日,Helium Mobile的单日新增订阅用户数量为1444。按这一增量来算,当前用户数量推测超过5万人。

如果按照年度基准来算,则意味着Helium Mobile全年新增订阅用户将接近53万人。这已经追赶上了Verizon + AT&T在2023年54.5万的用户新增规模。

Helium Mobile用户数量快速地扩张来自于它推出的20美元电信套餐价格的低廉。

1月25日,电信服务巨头之一的Telefónica (TEF) 与Helium Mobile合作进入拥有1.267亿人口的墨西哥。

相较于墨西哥人均327美元的月收入,当地传统电信套餐275M 99.99美元的花费;Helium Mobile 20美元的套餐费用很容易打开市场。

Solana+DePIN双叙事赋能

另一个值得关注的点在于,Solana以及DePIN正在成为Helium Mobile重新崛起的两个支点。

2023年4月20日,Helium完成向Solana网络的迁移,并成为Solana生态DePIN赛道的头部。同时Solana本身高性能公链的特点也为Helium Mobile提供了沃土。

Helium Mobile正在以自己的方式与Solana生态进行联动。

在2023年10月的Solana Breakpoint会议上,Helium Mobile作为案例被反复提及。同时,2023年11月,Nova Labs宣布为Saga手机用户(约5万人)提供SIM卡和免费试用服务。

DePIN概念,在比特币ETF被通过,加密货币范式被主流接受之后,将作为Web3领域发展壮大之后向外延展的重要抓手,代表着代币经济学与现实实体的结合。

Helium Mobile从现实世界人类最不可或缺的手机端和通信端切入,在现实社会用户接受度以及普及程度方面会更加平滑。

Helium Mobile调整挖矿规则

Helium Mobile网络由四个角色组成:

硬件供应商:生产和销售5G热点设备

热点运营者(矿工):矿工购买热点设备,为网络覆盖做出贡献从而获得代币奖励。

运营商Nova Labs:面向终端用户,提供每月20美元的5G套餐。

用户:通过代币或信用卡购买5G套餐服务,通过提供地图数据获得代币奖励。

简单理解就是,Helium Mobile围绕硬件和电信套餐,为用户提供了两种挖矿形式:硬件持有者通过部署Hotspot,为旁边用户提供热点服务获得代币奖励;电信套餐购买者通过使用套餐以及共享定位来获得奖励。

严格意义上,我们确实可以将MOBILE归类为矿币范畴,并套用如BTC、ETH、FIL在内的经典矿币发展路径:MOBILE代币上涨,硬件套餐需求增加,官方获得更多做市资金继续用于币价的提升。

理论上,挖矿性质的代币会有一个问题难以解决:矿机需求增加同时意味着代币抛压的增加,市值管理并不能一直Cover掉市场的抛售情绪;另一方面,硬件在实际部署环境下容易产生空跑现象(大量Hotspot装置被集中于矿场,或一个用户大量持有20美元套餐,并不能真正辐射到更多用户)。

这样的结果最终就导致代币供需关系严重失衡,最终价格崩盘。

Helium Mobile做了两个应对性调整:

1.Hotspot根据使用量来决定挖矿奖励,意味着只有真实的用户链接到热点才有奖励;

2.流量套餐挖矿规则更新:新订阅者等待8天才能领取奖励以及间歇性定位查询(必须移动超过200尺,手机才发送位置信息给Helium),让真正提供信息的用户获得奖励。并且每个账户每次只能获得一次Mapping奖励,同一账户下的多个手机数量并不会增加奖励金额。

目前,参与Mapping的用户每天可以赚取超过2,000个MOBILE代币,而用户只用支付Helium Mobile 20美元的月套餐资费即可开始挖矿。按当时价格来算,用户2天内便能覆盖20美元订阅费。

此次挖矿规则调整可以看出规则对于调节市场热度和预期的作用,最为直接的影响是其代币MOBILE价格在规则更新后触顶下跌。尽管如此,根据MOBILE当前0.0037美元的价格,用户也只需短短3天即可覆盖20美元的订阅费。

MOBILE与HNT互相借力

Helium Mobile是Helium的SubDAO代币,作为Helium LoraWAN长距离无线技术生态的一部分,与Helium IOT(低成本广覆盖IOT网络)、1633(大型企业物联网网络解决方案)共同构建起Helium的无线通信“帝国”。而IOT、MOBILE作为子币,也与HNT有着密切的价值关联。

而在这三个生态场景中,Helium Mobile是发展势头最好的,对比Helium Mobile和Helium的经济模型我们能发现,MOBILE代币的价值支撑与HNT密不可分。

HNT采用BME(销毁&铸造等价)的方式形成HNT通缩机制。在总量分配方面,除了约33%流向投资者以外,另外还会有33%分发给提供覆盖网络的热点营运商和矿工,以及33%用于网络数据传输费用的支付。MOBILE作为HNT代币分发的下游,代币经济学中的6%要发送给VeHNT,几乎不可避免地受到了HNT代币供需的影响。

即池中HNT总数与MOBILE总数的比值。HNT价格的上涨同样也会推动到MOBILE价格的上涨。

我们在理解MOBILE的价格影响因素时,除了挖矿抛压与MOBILE代币需求对比以外,还应充分考虑HNT生态整体发展态势对MOBILE代币的影响。

MOBILE价格螺旋将受到三个维度的影响:

1. 矿工挖出新币,形成卖出压力;

2. 套餐用户持续增长,并使用MOBILE代币支付20美元套餐费用。根据JDPower 2023年发布的数据显示,2023年美国用户在电信套餐上每月平均支出157美元,20美元套餐有相当价格优势。套餐服务增长使得MOBILE代币需求不断增长,同时也会推动HNT价格的上涨;

3. HNT价格上涨,推动MOBILE价格上涨,增加了Mobile生态矿工和地图绘制者的奖励,鼓励更多参与者涌入。进一步加剧HNT的燃烧力度,推高HNT价格,并影响到MOBILE价格,飞轮正向运转。

总体来说,当整个DePIN板块被看好,Helium矩阵发展健康,HNT本身价格的上涨,以及Helium Mobile套餐用户数量增加对HNT价格的正向影响,将抵消甚至远远超过矿工所带来的抛压。则MOBILE代币价格得到支撑。矿工回本周期变短,使得热点网络规模增长,网络服务更完善,终端用户性价比提升,进一步导致用户增长。

代币经济学:总体通缩

MOBILE是Helium Mobile的协议代币,也是Helium SubDAO的治理代币。MOBILE代币供应情况:

1. MOBILE最大供应量为2300亿枚,当前流通量844亿枚。

2. 500亿枚MOBILE在Mobile Network启动时预先开采,并分发到Helium基金会管理的网络运营基金。此分配的一部分已在整个创世纪期间分配给Mobile Network热点。

3. MOBILE第一年自2022年8月1日开始,第一个代币于2022年8月12日铸造。每两年减半一次。

MOBILE的排放计划于HIP53中提出,从2023年2月1日开始,5G热点所有者每月将获得6.6B MOBILE代币,激励订阅者注册、共享数据或展示各种其他类型的有价值的行为以促进网络发展。与创世时期相比,奖励将增加一倍以上,但PoC算法保持不变。其后通过HIP-75更新、 HIP-77确定,2023-03-19日的HIP-79中正式更新了排放计划。

根据新的排放计划,代币的最大供应量将为230B MOBILE。更新后的排放计划将继续每月向5G热点所有者发放大约30亿枚MOBILE代币,直到下一次减半。

HIP-79提案最新分配方案:

20%分配给PoC;

40%分配给热点数据传输,未分配完毕的归属PoC奖励;

20%分配给地图数据分享者,该比例由之前的10%提高到20%;

10%给运营商(Nova Labs);

4%给预言机,在外部预言机运营者部署服务后才开始分配;

6%给VeHNT。

Helium Mobile大事件

1. 2022年7月,Helium推出MOBILE代币,作为5G热点的奖励,用以扩展Helium 5G覆盖范围。

2. 2022年8月,Nova Labs公布了自己的加密运营商Helium Mobile。

3. 在2023年8月,Helium Mobile在迈阿密试点推出5美元无限制通话、短信、移动流量的数据套餐后,MOBILE价格开始上涨。

4. 2023 年 11 月,Nova Labs向Solana Labs的新Saga手机(Saga手机是Solana的旗舰Android设备,与Solana区块链紧密集成)用户提供SIM卡和免费试用服务。根据协议,在美国销售的Saga手机将获得30天免费的Helium Mobile订阅。

5. 2023年12月,Helium Mobile官方表示,已于美国推出每月20美元无限电话套餐,涵盖流量、短信与通话服务。

6. 2024年1月,西班牙电信公司巨头Telefónica宣布与Helium开发商Nova Labs合作,在墨西哥城和瓦哈卡部署Helium Mobile热点。

7. 2024年2月26日,Coinbase上线Helium Mobile。

结论:Helium Mobile正处于爆发前夜

2023年底,蛰伏1年半的Helium Mobile在推出20美元无限电话套餐后,迎来一波爆发。又因为挖矿规则的修改,让币价涨至0.00777的高位后急速下跌,引发市场不满情绪。

但作为一个通过代币奖励激励零售用户的基础设施网络,Helium Mobile探索出一条极具想象力的商业模式,既可以突破基础设施重资本投入、回报周期长的难点,也能让普通用户有机会参与行业革新并获得收益。

Helium Mobile通过为热点提供代币激励构建一个去中心化5G网络,同时通过远低于市场价的通信套餐获取终端用户,激励机制使得矿工-代币-用户三者之间形成飞轮效应,促使网络规模、用户规模和代币价格的三重增长。

目前Helium的FDV为21亿美元左右;Helium Mobile的FDV仅为9亿美元,流通市值只有3亿美元,同期Helium Mobile用户在3-5万左右。如果将这一数字膨胀10倍,当Helium Mobile真正有50万用户时,其市值可能会在当前基础上乘以10-20。

在DePIN作为重要叙事的这一轮牛市中,Helium Mobile作为传统资源强大、参与门槛低(20美元),破圈可能性高、代币具有减半机制,总体通缩,以及币价-矿机-用户互相支撑的项目,在我们看来,这将是极有机会在牛市引爆的具备Mass Adoption潜质的DePIN项目。


Foreword In order to explore the development potential, we need to explore our own characteristics first. Undoubtedly, the most destructive potential has become one of the most popular in the real world. Therefore, we are also highly optimistic about our future development path. Although we have encountered the currency price waterloo, we are now re-emerging and even the future influence will exceed the relationship between the mining rules and the token economics, and we will discuss the market potential and the statistical beauty of the dual narrative empowerment market potential. Compared with the US dollar package, the monthly cost of Chinese users in the US dollar package has a price advantage. In terms of market strategy, it has the flavor of seizing the market by cutting prices and burning money in the early days. However, because of the existence of token economics, it will not really bear a heavy cost burden, which is an advantage that telecom enterprises in the real world can hardly reproduce. Users' participation in infrastructure construction and potential token profitability are different from the traditional operators' business model through effective token incentives and electricity with high market competitiveness. In the first few months, the network coverage of the package service has reached the goal that some of the largest networks in the United States have completed for many years. Many small cellular radios have been deployed in many cities in the United States, and it is difficult to start the project with a small number of users. It is a problem encountered by many projects to ensure more users to enter and optimize the user experience through the annual cooperation agreement signed with the traditional American telecommunications giants. When users have no network coverage, they will automatically switch to the network for the terminal. The significance of users lies in the price advantage of package and the possibility of additional income, and reaching a strategic cooperation means that having a stable network service is conducive to the further expansion of the market and the guarantee of user service experience. The data growth is rapid, and the launch of the year marks the official entry into the mainstream trading market of the cryptocurrency world, which has doubled compared with the historical lowest point. From the perspective of development speed, the number of active nodes is relatively rapid. The number of nodes has increased by nearly half, almost at the rate of nodes per month. From the actual number of users, the number of users has exceeded 10,000 as of March this year, and the number of newly subscribed users in a single day is estimated to exceed 10,000 according to this increment. If it is calculated according to the annual benchmark, it means that the number of newly subscribed users will be close to 10,000 throughout the year, which has caught up with the increase in the number of users in the year. The rapid expansion of users comes from its launch of the US dollar telecom set. The price of meals is low, and one of the telecom service giants cooperates with Mexico, which has a population of 100 million. Compared with Mexico's per capita monthly income of US dollars, the local traditional telecom packages cost US dollars, which is easy to open the market. The dual narrative empowerment is another point worthy of attention. It is that it is becoming the two fulcrum of re-emergence, completing the migration to the network and becoming the head of the ecological track. At the same time, the characteristics of its own high-performance public chain also provide fertile soil, which is being used in its own way. Linkage with ecology was repeatedly mentioned as a case at the meeting in June, and it was announced in June that the concept of providing cards and free trial service for about 10,000 mobile phone users will be extended as an important starting point after Bitcoin is accepted by the mainstream through the cryptocurrency paradigm, which represents that the combination of token economics and real entities will be smoother in terms of user acceptance and popularity in the real world. The whole mining rules network is composed of four roles: hardware suppliers produce and sell hot equipment, hot operators miners buy hot equipment and contribute to network coverage, so as to get token rewards. Operators provide end users with a monthly package of US dollars, and users buy package services through tokens or credit cards to get token rewards by providing map data. A simple understanding is that two mining forms are provided for users around hardware and telecom packages, and hardware holders provide them to nearby users through deployment. Hot service gets token reward. Telecom package buyers get rewards by using packages and sharing positioning. In a strict sense, we can really classify the tokens into the category of mineral coins and apply the classic development path of mineral coins such as, and the demand for hardware packages increases. Officials get more market-making funds to continue to use for the promotion of currency prices. Theoretically, mining tokens will have a problem that is difficult to solve. At the same time, it means that the demand for mining machines will increase, and market value management cannot always lose the market. On the other hand, the hardware is prone to empty running in the actual deployment environment. A large number of devices are concentrated in the mine or a user holds a large number of US dollar packages, which can't really radiate to more users. As a result, the relationship between supply and demand of tokens is seriously unbalanced, and finally the price collapses. Two coping adjustments are made to determine the mining reward according to the usage, which means that only the real users link to the hot spot can get the reward flow. The mining rules of the package are updated, and new subscribers wait for days to receive the reward. Intermittent location query must move more than one foot before sending location information to users who really provide information, and each account can only get one reward at a time. The number of multiple mobile phones under the same account will not increase the reward amount. At present, participating users can earn more than tokens every day, and users can start mining by paying the monthly package fee of US dollars. According to the current price, users can cover the US dollar subscription fee within days. The adjustment of mining rules can be seen that the rules are very important for the adjustment. The most direct influence of the popularity and expectation of the festival market is that the price of its tokens has peaked after the rules are updated. However, according to the current price of US dollars, users can cover the subscription fee of US dollars in just a short day. As a part of the long-distance wireless technology ecology and the low-cost and wide-coverage network, the large-scale enterprise Internet of Things network solutions have jointly built a wireless communication empire, and as a sub-coin, it is also closely related to the value and developed in these three ecological scenarios. The best comparison of the exhibition momentum and the new economic model, we can find that the value support of tokens is inseparable, and the deflation mechanism is formed by destroying and casting equivalence. In terms of total distribution, in addition to investors, it will also be distributed to hot operators and miners who provide coverage networks, as well as the payment for network data transmission as the downstream token distribution. In token economics, it is almost inevitably affected by the supply and demand of tokens, that is, the ratio of the total number to the total number in the pool, and the price increase will also push up the price. When we understand the price influencing factors, in addition to mining and selling pressure, 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台

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