比特币正面临需求冲击：什么是需求冲击

In the field of commodities, the author's demand shocks refers to the sudden and significant changes in the demand for basic commodities or raw materials caused by unforeseen events. The positive demand shocks stems from the increase in demand, which may be due to the change of technological innovation policies or the change of consumer preferences, which pushed up the price. At the beginning of the century, China's economic prosperity and the acceleration of real estate development led to the rise of the commodity demand shocks, which led to the increase in steel prices between and. After the financial crisis, the economic growth slowed down and the supply response caused a large-scale increase in production. As a result, the price of steel fell in the next decade. We believe that Bitcoin is currently experiencing a positive experience in demand shocks. The US Securities and Exchange Commission has approved spot-based assets, which allows more than one trillion dollars of assets to be invested in the traditional market. Although this is well known, the timing is not clear, and the scale of the resulting capital inflow has not reached a broad consensus. So far, the launch on March has led to an average daily demand for Bitcoin limited to trading days, while at the same time, it is new. The average daily exploitation of bitcoin is only one, which has led to a sharp increase in the price of bitcoin in recent weeks. Because the supply of newly mined bitcoin can't keep up with the demand, the issuer has to mainly purchase from the secondary market. We can see this in the data, in which the market holdings have declined since the peak of 2000, which is probably due to the fact that the demand in recent years witnessed a record inflow of billions of dollars in the first two months, compared with the net amount of the first gold launched in 2000. The inflow was only $10,000 in the first two months of 2008, that is, before it was halved, the inflow was $100 million, which was very similar to today's total assets under management. Even in nominal terms, today's inflow was twice that of 2008. We also saw that the amount of bitcoin held by the exchange decreased significantly since 2008, because investors are using bitcoin more and more or keeping it by themselves, which reflects that they increasingly regard it as a value storage tool. According to the current demand speed of about 100 bitcoins per day, it takes genius to balance the exchange, so obviously there is still a long way to go. After the emergence of demand shocks in the commodity market, there is usually a supply response. As time goes by, suppliers will adjust their production level according to the new demand conditions. In the case of positive impact on demand, manufacturers may increase their production capacity or seek to improve efficiency to meet higher demand. However, there is one difference between bitcoin and the commodity market. The fixed and unchangeable supply mechanism model is programmed to halve the supply in each block or about every year. Eventually, the market will seek a new balance at the intersection of supply and demand. This adjustment process can be fast or slow depending on the degree of impact. In view of the inflexible supply of Bitcoin, a new balance can only be sought at the price level, which is why we have seen the price of Bitcoin rise so rapidly in recent months. The issue demand and the upcoming halving have intensified this problem. It is well known. At least in theory, the known information should have been included in the price expectation model. Some people may argue that the increase of half the price after the year is more the result of the US stimulus check measures than the half itself. Statistically speaking, we only have a sample of previous events for reference, so it is dangerous to draw any conclusions. We have provided more details in this article. However, if there are a large number of transactions related to this event, it may become a self-fulfilling prophecy, especially in At present, traders in the futures market have a low position on this event. In any case, there are several other supporting factors for the price of Bitcoin this year. The most important positive development is that the platform in the United States allows registered investment consultants to include Bitcoin in their clients' portfolios. However, we believe that these capital inflows will eventually decrease, thus reducing their impact on the price. If these funds start to decrease later this year, we expect that the price of Bitcoin will be in line with interest rate expectations again, which may become additional price support for Bitcoin because the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates later this year. 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台

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