以太坊升级:Solana大涨

币圈资讯 阅读:35 2024-04-22 04:32:20 评论:0
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原创:刘教链

啪啪打脸。

3月13日晚间近10时(UTC+8),以太坊主网迎来重要升级:坎昆升级。其中激活一项重要协议,EIP-4844 proto-danksharding(原型阶段的数据分片)。

一如既往的,市场把成功升级视为利好出尽。3月12日ETH摸到了局部高点4090刀。升级之后两天,3月15日开盘已经回落到3845刀,距最高点跌幅已近6%。

而从逻辑上应该被以太坊扩容所阻击的“敌人”——新公链的代表——Solana,却从3月11日开盘143刀开始发动行情,向上猛攻,至15日开盘已到167刀,毫不停歇,反而进一步加速,至本文撰写时,更是日内爆拉10%,一度突破180刀近期高点,距离2021年1月历史高点259刀仅有一步之遥。从143到180,短短5天功夫,爆拉超25%。

Solana用拉盘甩了以太坊及其小弟L2(二层)们一个响亮的耳光。

耳光响亮,绕梁不绝。

于是就马上有高明的KOL(意见领袖)站出来表态了:市场永远是正确的。坎昆升级,让以太坊退化成了区块出租者,应用税转给了L2小弟们,但是无奈小弟们不争气,没有一个能打的。于是被Solana打得落花流水、丢盔弃甲。

市场定价总是有效的、正确的,这是著名的有效市场理论。市场常常出现定价错误,创造了投资机会,这是价值投资者所信奉的理论。

也许关键在于,韭菜们信哪个。

如果韭菜们相信市场永远正确,那么就给庄家拉高出货创造了收割机会。

以太坊升级,Solana大涨。背后的原因可以有三种:

一:以太坊升级已经宣告了扩容路线的失败,证明了新公链崛起和以太坊的没落。二级市场正确地发现了这一点,并通过价格反映了出来。

二:以太坊扩容路线是成功的、务实的,新公链们没有几年蹦跶的时间了,以太坊终究要统治智能链的市场。二级市场误判了这一趋势,出现了暂时性的错误定价。

三:以太坊没有失败,但是其成功仍不为人所认识,而挑战者将会失败。庄家对此有更为深刻、透彻和领先的认知,于是要赶在市场醒悟过来之前,好好利用这个窗口期,拉盘出货,在高位把项目交到韭菜们手里。这样的话,新公链在二级市场就会出现回光返照般地奇迹上涨,吸引韭菜高位接盘。

那么目前的情况,属于哪一种呢?每个人,都有每个人自己的自由心证。

在粗糙的加密市场上,宣扬己方正义的方式简单粗暴而往往有效,那就是“拉盘” —— 就像古代兴师征讨时所举起的一杆大旗。

大旗之下,民心归附。拉盘之上,蜂拥而至。

ETH的持有者一日不改其志,一日不变心,一日不割ETH换仓新公链,那就一日不停拉涨,一直拉到你信仰改变、割肉换仓、生生涨服为止。

此情此景,谁还关心什么“宕机链”?

是的,这个局早已布下。早在2023年底,“一定程度上代表了西方加密投资机构主流意见的投研机构Messari”,就“在其年终报告里”,“强烈表达了看好Solana、看空以太坊的观点”。(出处同上)

论去中心化,EOS不比Solana更去中心化?论性能,EOS不比Solana性能更高?说Solana能颠覆以太坊,EOS一百个不服气。但EOS就是败了。生不逢时也好,自作自受也罢,手里拿着从韭菜那里募集的大量BTC的Block.One,舒服躺平,混吃等死,哪里还关心EOS本身之成败?

简单观察一下当下的实际数据:

Solana网络大约3000 TPS。一笔链上tx的gas fee大概是0.000005 SOL,按现价$179计算约等于$0.0009不到$0.001。

以太坊L1网络约15 TPS。gas fee约55 Gwei,按现价$3765计算约等于$4。

以太坊L2网络,以Optimism为例,不到10 TPS。gas fee约为0.011 Gwei,折合$0.0009,不到$0.001。

以上,TPS不是网络最大设计容量,而是实际交易速率。如果链不活跃,那么不管链能够承载多大的交易量,其实际TPS都比较低。

以太坊从ETH2.0计算分片+数据分片的扩容路线,取舍而成为数据分片+L2的新扩容路线。坎昆升级,只是数据分片的前奏。真正的一层分片,还需要后续的升级,实现“大爆发”(The Surge)路线图中最终超10万TPS的目标。

路虽远,行则必至;事虽难,做则必成。

当终达目的地的一天,你也许又会怀念,蓝天白云的旧时光,耳边响起熟悉的旋律:

「那时候天总是很蓝 / 日子总过得太慢 /

你总说毕业遥遥无期 / 转眼就各奔东西 /

谁遇到多愁善感的你 / 谁安慰爱哭的你 /

谁看了我给你写的信 / 谁把它丢在风里」


Original Liu Jiaolian smacked his face in the evening of March, the main network of Ethereum ushered in an important upgrade in Cancun, in which an important agreement was activated. The data fragmentation in the prototype stage, as always, the market regarded the successful upgrade as a good thing. After the upgrade of the knife, the opening of the knife fell back to the highest point of the knife two days later, and the decline was close, but the representative of the enemy new public chain, which should be logically stopped by the expansion of Ethereum, started to launch a market attack from the opening knife on March to the opening of the day. On the contrary, it was further accelerated when this article was written. At one point, the knife broke through the recent high point, and it was only one step away from the historical high point in June. From just a few days, it took kung fu to explode and pull the plate, and dumped the Ethereum and its younger brothers on the second floor with a loud slap in the face. So there was a brilliant opinion leader who immediately stood up and stated that the market was always correct. The Cancun upgrade degenerated Ethereum into a block lessor and transferred the tax to the younger brothers, but the younger brothers failed to live up to expectations. The pricing of a market that can be beaten is always effective and correct. This is a famous effective market theory. Pricing errors often occur in the market, creating investment opportunities. This is the theory that value investors believe in. Perhaps the key lies in which leeks believe. If leeks believe that the market is always correct, they will create harvesters for ship pulled. There are three reasons behind the surge in the upgrade of Ethereum. The upgrade of Ethereum has declared the failure of the expansion route. The rise of the new public chain and the decline of Ethereum have correctly discovered this point in the secondary market, and reflected through the price that the expansion route of Ethereum is successful and pragmatic. The new public chains have not had a few years to jump around, and Ethereum will eventually dominate the market of the intelligent chain. The secondary market misjudged this trend and made a temporary mistake. The pricing of Ethereum has not failed, but its success is still unknown, and the challenger will fail. Therefore, the bookmakers have a more profound and leading understanding of this, so they have to catch up with the market. Before the market wakes up, make good use of this window period to pull the shipment and deliver the project to the leeks at a high level. In this way, the new public chain will miraculously rise in the secondary market to attract the leeks to take over at a high level. So what kind of situation does the current situation belong to? Everyone has his own free heart to prove that the way to publicize his own justice in the rough encryption market is simple, rude and often effective. That is, pulling the plate is like a flag raised by the people under the banner of ancient crusade. The holders swarming on the attached drawing board don't change their mind, change their minds and cut the new public chain, so they will keep pulling up until your belief changes. Who cares about the downtime chain? Yes, this bureau has already been laid as early as the end of the year, and the investment and research institutions, which represent the mainstream opinions of western crypto investment institutions to a certain extent, strongly expressed their views on bearish ethereum in their year-end reports. The performance is no better than the performance, saying that it can subvert a hundred people in Ethereum, but even if it is defeated, it is ill-timed or self-inflicted, and it will stop with a lot of comfort raised from leeks. Where are you still concerned about your own success or failure? Simply observe the actual data network at present. About a chain is about less than the Ethereum network at the current price. For example, it is less than the maximum design capacity of the network, but If the chain is not active, then no matter how much transaction the chain can carry, it is actually relatively low. Ethereum has become a new expansion route of data fragmentation by calculating the expansion route of data fragmentation. Cancun upgrade is only a prelude to data fragmentation, and the subsequent upgrade is needed to achieve the ultimate goal of exceeding 10,000 in the road map of big explosion. Although it is difficult to travel, it will be a day when you will eventually reach your destination. You may miss the old days when the blue sky and white clouds are ringing. Play a familiar melody. At that time, the sky was always blue, and the days always passed too slowly. You always said that graduation was far away, and then you went your separate ways. Who met you who was sentimental, who comforted you who cried, who read the letter I wrote to you and who threw it in the wind. 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台

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