Tide Capital:比特币减半你需要知道的6个Big Ideas

币圈资讯 阅读:26 2024-04-22 04:06:37 评论:0
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在比特币区块高度 #837188,距离第四次减半还有 20天的日子,比特币在此站上 $70,000 大关,市场情绪发生了微妙的变化,面对即将到来的减半,是会重演减半行情还是引发新的叙事,多空双方正在激烈博弈。

Tide Capital 在官网发布最新研报《比特币减半你需要知道的6个Big Ideas》,阐述了推动比特币价格的六个最重要线索和判断。

本文节选研报的部分内容公开发表。全文请登录 Tide Capital 官网下载完整版研报。

比特币:即将完成第4次减半,减少年度抛压100亿美元

比特币将在2024年4月18日完成第4次减半,区块奖励将由6.25个比特币减少至3.125个,进一步减少比特币的产出和抛压。

减半前,比特币年产出约为33万个,按照65000美元的价格计算,将给市场带来超过200亿美元的抛压。减半后,比特币每年抛压也将减少一半,也就是相当于减少100亿美元,有效缓解了比特币的抛售压力。

比特币:历史上3次减半,后一年均实现大幅上涨

比特币历史上共经历了3次减半,分别在2012年11月、2016年7月、2020年5月,共同点是减半后一年都出现了大幅上涨。目前距离第4次减半的时间已不足30天,市场开始计价减半带来的影响,比特币有很大的概率继续震荡上行。

比特币:现货ETF获得资金加速流入,助推比特币持续上行

1月10日,BTC现货ETF获得批准,此后带来百亿美元场外资金流入,助推比特币持续上行。以往的牛市中,BTC通常有多次20%以上的回调,但本轮牛市的回调次数不多、回调幅度不大,正是得益于源源不断的场外资金流入。

参考黄金ETF,首个黄金ETF推出后,黄金迎来近10年的长牛,涨幅超过400%。与黄金相比,BTC储存更安全、交易更便利、转移更快速,具有更优越的价值储藏特性。当前黄金市值为14.5万亿美元,比特币市值仅为1.3万亿美元,比特币距离黄金仍有10倍的空间,而比特币ETF的推出比当年的黄金ETF更受青睐,资金流入速度遥遥领先。

铭文:比特币原生创新,减半时有望开启第三波热潮

2023年1月,比特币开发者Casey Rodarmor发布了Ordinals协议,允许用户将数据嵌入比特币区块链中,从而在比特币上创建NFT和代币类资产,开启了比特币生态的新玩法。上线至今,Ordinals总铭刻次数超过了6000万。

铭文一共经历了两波热潮,第一波始于2023年4月,龙头代币ORDI从$0.005上涨至$28,两个月涨幅超过5000倍。第二波始于2023年10月,ORDI从$3上涨至$96,OKX、Binance纷纷上线铭文交易市场,带动更多铭文资产上涨。

铭文是比特币生态的原生创新,给比特币社区带来了更多的用户和开发者,各种新型应用和玩法正在不断出现。当比特币进行下一次减半时,市场的关注点将再次回到比特币生态中,铭文也将开启第三波热潮。

符文:协议预计在减半时上线,Runestone 有望成为核心资产

符文协议 (Runes Protocol) 由Ordinals创始人Casey Rodarmor提出,作为BRC-20协议的改进升级版,旨在提供高效率、高兼容、高扩展的比特币资产发行和管理框架,预计将在比特币减半时正式上线,因此成为减半炒作的主流概念之一。

符石 (Rune Stone) 由Ordinals浏览器Ord.io创始人Leonidas推出,通过对112,383个比特币地址空投NFT完成了初始发行,当前市值超过3亿美元。符石已成为符文协议的代表性资产,越来越多的项目开始对持有符石的用户进行空投,符石拥有巨大的想象空间,未来的应用和玩法值得期待。此外,符文协议上线后,持有符石的用户可以将其转换为同质化代币。总的来说,符石Rune Stone具有「符文协议」+「空投资产」+「发币预期」的叙事,有望成为比特币减半行情的核心资产。

Meme:蓝筹NFT mfers发币,12小时从0到2亿美元市值

3月30日,蓝筹NFT项目mfers创始人sartoshi发行了代币mfercoin,在白皮书中表示mfercoin是一个没有内在价值、没有获利预期、没有规定用途的Meme coin,并将80%的代币都注入了流动性池中,其余20%的代币将空投给mfers社区。

NFT项目mfers上线于2021年,曾在加密社区掀起一股PFP热潮,属于知名的蓝筹NFT项目。mfercoin上线后,凭借社区自发的支持和传播,12个小时内实现从0到2亿美元市值。对于mfercoin的未来,用mfers社区的话来说,1$mfer=1$mfer。

完整版研报34页,阐述了比特币生态、Meme、AI、Solana、以太坊等机会,请登录 Tide Capital 官网下载完整版研报。

Tide Capital

Tide Capital是一家研究导向的数字资产投资和交易公司。我们研究宏观和基本面,捕捉从加密资产趋势到金融周期的Beta和Alpha机会。秉承价值驱动的理念,我们致力于投资具有显著增长潜力的早期项目。同时,我们评估市场周期来指导投资决策,积极参与公开市场交易以获得回报。


There are still days before the height of the bitcoin block is halved for the fourth time. The market sentiment has undergone subtle changes. Will the upcoming halving repeat the halving market or trigger a new narrative? The two sides are playing a fierce game in official website to release the latest research report on halving bitcoin. You need to know the six most important clues and judgments to promote bitcoin prices. Please visit official website to download the full version of the research report bitcoin. The second halving will be completed soon, and the annual selling pressure will be reduced by $100 million. The block reward will be reduced from $100 to $100, and the annual output of bitcoin will be about 10,000 before halving the selling pressure. After halving the selling pressure, the selling pressure of bitcoin will be reduced by half, which is equivalent to reducing the selling pressure of bitcoin by $100 million. Bitcoin has experienced a total of two halves in its history, respectively, in the year, month, year, month, and year, the common point is that it has risen sharply. At present, it is less than a day before the first halving, and the impact of the halving of the market has a great probability of continuing to fluctuate upward. Bitcoin spot gets funds to accelerate the inflow, which helps Bitcoin to continue to rise. After the spot is approved, it will bring in tens of billions of dollars of off-site funds to help Bitcoin continue to rise. In the past bull market, it was usually more than once. However, the number of pullbacks in this bull market is not large, and the pullback is not large because of the continuous inflow of off-exchange funds. After the first gold was launched, gold ushered in a long bull increase in recent years, which exceeded that of gold. Compared with gold, it is safer to store, more convenient to transfer, faster and has superior value storage characteristics. At present, the market value of gold is trillions of dollars, and the market value of bitcoin is only trillions of dollars. Bitcoin is still twice as far from gold, and the introduction of bitcoin is more popular than that of gold. Far ahead of the inscription: When the original innovation of Bitcoin is halved, it is expected to start the third wave of craze. In September, Bitcoin developers issued an agreement to allow users to embed data into the bitcoin blockchain, thus creating a new way of playing bitcoin ecology. Up to now, the total number of inscriptions has exceeded 10,000, and there have been two waves of craze. The first wave began in June, when the leading tokens rose to more than twice in two months. The second wave began in June, when they rose to online inscriptions trading market. More Inscriptions The inscription of rising assets is the original innovation of bitcoin ecology, which has brought more users and developers to the bitcoin community. Various new applications and games are constantly emerging. When bitcoin is halved for the next time, the market will focus on returning to the bitcoin ecology again. Inscriptions will also start the third wave of craze. The rune agreement is expected to become the core asset when it is halved. The rune agreement was proposed by the founder as an improved and upgraded version of the agreement, aiming at providing high efficiency, high compatibility and high expansion of bitcoin. The asset issuance and management framework is expected to be officially launched when bitcoin is halved, so it has become one of the mainstream concepts of half hype. The rune stone was launched by the founder of the browser, and the initial issuance was completed by airdropping a bitcoin address. At present, the rune stone with a market value of more than 100 million US dollars has become a representative asset of the rune agreement. More and more projects have begun to airdrop the rune stone for users, and the future application and gameplay of the rune stone are worth looking forward to. It can be converted into homogeneous tokens. Generally speaking, Fu Shi has the narrative of the rune agreement to airdrop assets and the expectation of issuing coins, which is expected to become the core asset of the bitcoin halving market. The blue chip issuing hours range from to billion dollars. The founder of the blue chip project issued tokens, which in the white paper indicated that it has no intrinsic value, no profit expectation and no specified purpose, and injected all the tokens into the liquidity pool. The rest of the tokens will be airdropped to the community project, which set off a craze in the encryption community in. After the well-known blue-chip project is launched, the market value of from to 100 million dollars will be realized within hours with the spontaneous support and dissemination of the community. For the future community, the full version of the research report page expounds opportunities such as Bitcoin Eco-Ethereum. Please visit official website to download the full version of the research report. It is a research-oriented digital asset investment and trading company. We study macro and fundamental aspects to capture opportunities from encrypted asset trends to financial cycles. Adhering to the value-driven concept, we are committed to investing in early projects with significant growth potential. At the same time, we evaluate the market cycle to guide investment decisions and actively participate in open market transactions to obtain returns. 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台

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