当前美股并非真正牛市？四大风险威胁上涨
这个市场上没人知道什么时候该收手，但了解这些风险肯定对投资者没坏处。
上周美股三大股指两次集体创下历史新高，这是近三年来首次出现这种情况。所有人都希望派对不要停，但股市不会永远涨下去，目前有几个因素可能会导致派对戛然而止。
当下市场环境有些让人难以理解。利率已升至23年来高点、区域性银行危机、两场海外战争、房地产市场下滑以及对经济衰退的普遍预期都未能阻止标普500指数从疫情期间低点上涨超过一倍。
上周，美联储主席鲍威尔宣布美联储仍预计今年会降息三次，似乎没有受到最近高于预期的通胀数据的影响。在这一消息的推动下，道琼斯工业平均指数、标普500指数和纳斯达克综合指数均创下今年以来最大单周涨幅。
美股的上涨获得了人工智能热潮的推动，“七巨头”——特斯拉(TSLA)、英伟达(NVDA)、亚马逊(AMZN)、Alphabet (GOOGL)、微软(MSFT)、Meta Platforms (META)和苹果(AAPL)——今年的平均涨幅约为19%，为标普500指数贡献了很大一部分涨幅。虽然这些公司的业务很强大，但一直有策略师认为它们的上涨不具可持续性。
美国银行(Bank of America)首席投资策略师迈克尔·哈特尼特(Michael Hartnett)近日在接受彭博(Bloomberg)采访时说：“‘七巨头’的上涨越来越像泡沫。”
Wolfe Research策略师克里斯·森耶克(Chris Senyek)认为，股市最大的风险是“另一个20世纪90年代末式的科技、媒体和电信(TMT)泡沫的形成”。
另一个风险可以通过“道氏理论”(Dow Theory)看出。“道氏理论”是一个技术分析工具，该理论认为，当一只道琼斯平均指数——道琼斯工业平均指数或道琼斯运输业平均指数——突破之前的重要高点、而且另一只道琼斯平均指数也突破之前的重要高点时，才能说真正的牛市开始了。“道氏理论”认为，如果企业经营状况良好而且收入正在增长，那么运输类股票也应该会盈利。
但这种情况并没有发生。上涨了4.7%的道琼斯工业平均指数已打破了之前创下的纪录，但道琼斯运输业平均指数仍比2021年峰值低6%。
华尔街知名空头大卫·罗森博格(David Rosenberg)上周五在一篇文章中写道：“投资者尽可以享受这波投机型和动量型上涨，但这个市场还不符合真正的牛市定义。”
此外，根据FactSet的数据，预计今年标普500指数成份股公司的利润将增长11%，至242.49美元，这与1月份241.17美元的预估值相比并没有明显变化，但标普500指数上涨了9.7%，突破了5200点大关。
成分股公司的盈利预期可能会在下半年被下调，进而削弱股市的上涨势头。Ned Davis Research首席美国策略师艾德·克利索德(Ed Clissold)近日指出，目前华尔街对今年前两个季度企业利润增长率的预期为4%至6%，对第三季度企业利润增长率的预期大幅升至近20%，接下来可能有会很大的下调空间。
另外，现实一点来说，美联储也有可能破坏这场派对。股市已经“完美定价”，已经消化了美联储今年多次降息以及美国经济有望“不着陆”（即经济超预期增长）的预期。
德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)美洲区首席投资官迪帕克·普里(Deepak Puri)告诉《巴伦周刊》：“如果股市稍微被打了个措手不及，以及如果经济出现‘软着陆’（即美国GDP增长率略微低于预期），都有可能成为股市回调的催化剂。”
当然，股市仍有可能进一步上涨，像2023年那样克服重重阻力，上述风险也有可能都不会成为现实。在这个市场上，没人知道什么时候该收手，但了解这些风险对投资者肯定没坏处。
No one in this market knows when to stop, but it is certainly not bad for investors to understand these risks. Last week, the three major stock indexes of the US stock market collectively hit record highs twice, which is the first time in the past three years. Everyone hopes that the party will not stop, but the stock market will not go up forever. At present, there are several factors that may cause the party to come to an abrupt end. At present, the market environment is somewhat incomprehensible. Interest rates have risen to an all-time high, regional banking crises, two overseas wars, the decline of the real estate market and the impact on the economy. The general expectation of recession failed to prevent the S&P index from more than doubling from the low point during the epidemic. Last week, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell announced that the Fed still expects to cut interest rates three times this year, which seems to be unaffected by the recent higher-than-expected inflation data. Driven by this news, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P index and the Nasdaq composite index both hit their biggest weekly gains this year, and the rise of US stocks was promoted by the artificial intelligence boom. Seven giants Tesla, NVIDIA, Amazon, Microsoft and Apple. If this year's average increase has contributed a lot to the S&P index, although these companies have strong businesses, some strategists have always thought that their rise is unsustainable. Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist of Bank of America, said in an interview with Bloomberg recently that the rise of the Big Seven is more and more like a bubble. Chris Senyek, a strategist, thinks that the biggest risk of the stock market is the formation of another technological media and telecommunications bubble in the late 1920s, and another risk can be solved through Dow Jones. On seeing that Dow theory is a technical analysis tool, the theory holds that a real bull market can only be said when one Dow Jones average index, Dow Jones Industrial Average or Dow Jones Transportation Average breaks through the previous important high point and the other Dow Jones Average also breaks through the previous important high point. Dow theory holds that transportation stocks should also be profitable if enterprises are in good operating condition and their income is increasing, but this situation has not happened with Dow Jones Industrial Average. The average index has broken the previous record, but the Dow Jones Transportation Average is still lower than the annual peak. David Rosenberg, a well-known Wall Street bear, wrote in an article last Friday that investors can enjoy this speculative and momentum rise as much as possible, but this market does not meet the definition of a real bull market. In addition, according to the data, it is predicted that the profits of S&P index companies will increase to US dollars this year, which has not changed significantly compared with the estimated value of US dollars in January, but the S&P index has risen a little. The profit expectations of the companies that make up the stock market may be lowered in the second half of the year, thus weakening the rising momentum of the stock market. Ed Crissod, the chief American strategist, recently pointed out that the current Wall Street's expectations for the growth rate of corporate profits in the first two quarters of this year are extremely high, and the expectations for the growth rate of corporate profits in the third quarter have risen sharply in the near future. In addition, in reality, the Fed may also ruin this party. The stock market has been perfectly priced and the Fed has cut interest rates several times this year. And the expectation that the US economy is expected to grow faster than expected without landing, deepak Puri, chief investment officer of Deutsche Bank in the Americas, told Barron Weekly that if the stock market is caught off guard slightly and if the economy has a soft landing, the growth rate of the United States is slightly lower than expected, it may become a catalyst for the stock market correction. Of course, the stock market may still rise further and overcome many obstacles as in, and none of the above risks may become a reality. In this market, no one knows when to stop, but it is certainly harmless for investors to understand these risks. 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台
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