如何通过ETF投资人工智能赛道?
购买专门投资人工智能主题的ETF,可以保证其投资组合尽可能覆盖多的不同公司,将漏掉某一个公司的概率降到最低。
2024年,最火热的投资赛道是哪条?恐怕大多数读者都会选择“人工智能”。从年初OpenAI公布Sora以来,我们很多人都被人工智能自动生成的各种视频和小电影刷屏。当然,人工智能究竟如何提高生产力,为相关公司带来多少营收,似乎还是一个开放式的问题,但是向人工智能掘金者“卖铁锹”的公司已经赚的盆满钵满。生成式AI所必需的GPU市场的领头羊,英伟达的市值超过了2万亿美元,位列全球第三,仅次于苹果和微软。其创始人黄仁勋的传奇故事也被各大媒体争相报道。
作为一个普通的投资者,我们如何从这股科技革命的浪潮中分到一杯羹?相信这是很多读者最关心的问题之一。
毫无疑问,最直接的方法就是在几年前买入英伟达的公司股票。但问题在于,我们不可能让时光倒流,回到过去去购买未来铁定会大涨的股票。事实上在人工智能领域,相关公司数以千计,能够在几年前就想到通过英伟达来赌人工智能赛道的投资者,可谓寥寥无几,甚至可能被认为异想天开。
因此,对于很多个人投资者而言,另一个办法是购买专门投资人工智能主题的ETF。这些ETF不会只投资一家或者两家公司,而是会选择几十家甚至更多数量的公司股票购买。这样的投资方法,可以保证其投资组合尽可能覆盖多的不同公司,将漏掉某一个公司的概率降到最低。
当然,即使是只专注于投资人工智能的主题型ETF,其数量也是很大的。这是因为,人工智能本身是一个非常宽泛的概念。由于这是最近两年最火热的投资主题,很多公司都选择向人工智能靠近,在其产品、服务或者公司宣传中加入“人工智能”的字样。2019年,英国风投公司MMC发布的一份报告显示,在欧洲有2830家初创的人工智能公司,其中只有1580家确实在做人工智能研发。换句话说,大约45%的自称人工智能的公司,做的是挂羊头卖狗肉的生意,只是来蹭“人工智能”的热度而已。其次,如果我们把人工智能这个概念深挖,其涵盖的范围还可以进一步细分为:工业自动化、非工业自动化、3D打印、语言生成、自动驾驶等。毫不夸张的说,所有这些细分行业都和人工智能高度相关,其赛道里的公司都可以归入人工智能主题。
以这些标准为出发点,截至2024年3月,我们大约可以找到50多只人工智能ETF。如果只看资金管理规模在1.5亿美元以上的ETF,那么这个数字被减少到18只左右。这些ETF的投资策略和侧重点有所不同,但都是以人工智能投资主题为核心,目的是帮助投资者获得人工智能引领的科技革命带来的投资回报。
如果我们仔细分析这些ETF的回报,会有一些有趣的发现。比如在过去12个月中,这18只人工智能ETF中,只有4只的回报超过了同期的标普500指数。其中一些人工智能ETF的回报惨不忍睹。比如有一只ETF叫做First Trust Nasdaq Artificial Intelligence and Robotics ETF(ROBT,资金规模5.5亿美元左右,从名字即可看出该ETF专门投资人工智能和机器人赛道),其过去12个月的回报比同期的标普500指数落后了19%。另一只ETF叫做WisdomTree U.S. AI Enhanced Value Fund(AIVL),其过去12个月的回报比同期的标普500指数落后了13%。
很多读者一定感到很惊奇。我都已经摸对了赛道,下注了最热门火爆的人工智能行业,为什么回报还不如股市大盘平均回报?背后的主要原因在于,人工智能类股票的回报差别是很大的。从公司股票的回报百分比来看,最大的赢家是英伟达和超微电脑(SMCI)。除此以外,像亚马逊、微软和元宇宙平台这样的大市值公司,其股价也因为人工智能的概念而大涨。
也就是说,到最后投资者是否能够获得好的投资回报,关键就在于他的投资组合中有没有包括英伟达、亚马逊、微软等股票,以及这些股票所占的比重。
截至2024年3月底,标普500指数中的英伟达、亚马逊、微软和元宇宙权重分别高达5.3%、3.72%、7.25%和2.55%。标普500指数在过去12个月(截至2024年3月底)的回报高达30%左右,其中约1/3来自于上面提到的这几家科技巨头。
而专门投资人工智能赛道的ETF,则未必如标普500指数那样,在投资权重上高度集中于头部的那些科技巨头。这主要是因为,这些ETF投资的目标是一个赛道,而不是某一两家公司。如果你要确保把整个赛道买下来,那么你就需要把子弹均匀的分一下,尽可能分散在多家公司上,而不是全部集中在少数几家公司。这就是为什么,很多人工智能的ETF,把任何一只被投资股票的最高权重限定在4%或5%。当某一只股票的市值权重超过该比例时,ETF基金经理会进行干预再平衡,把高权重的公司股票卖掉一些,并买入一些低权重的公司股票,以把投资组合的权重分布拉回到比较均匀分布的平衡状态。这种操作,能够保证投资者不错过整个赛道,但遇到像英伟达这样的“超级妖股”时,就会拖累投资者的回报。
从上面的分析中,我们学到点什么?
第一、要想通过选定赛道和行业来投资获利,其难度比很多人想象的难的多。哪怕是看对了人工智能赛道,买入了专门投资人工智能行业的基金,投资者也未必能够战胜市场,甚至可能大概率落后市场平均回报。这就提醒我们,在任何时候,在自己的投资组合中,都应该为基于指数的被动投资留有一席之地。既然很难战胜被动投资,那何不在自己的投资组合中,划出一块领域,比如总投资额的X%,专门用于被动投资。
第二、这同时也说明,主动投资的门槛是很高的。比如一些投资者得出结论:人工智能是“风口”。但如果你的认知仅限于此,去买了一些人工智能主题ETF,那其实离高质量的主动投资,获得超额回报还差得很远。聪明的投资者应该有自知之明,理解获得超额回报需要付出多少努力。
第三、真正的主动投资不需要多元分散。投资传奇巴菲特在多次场合中说过,他不认同过多分散自己的投资。一般股民,最多买8-10只股票,长期持有就够了。任何一个投资者的精力和认知都是有边界的,不可能样样精通,因此投资者应该有所选择,让自己成为某一两个领域的专家,在这些领域垂直深耕。我们不要忘记,主动投资(选股或者选行业)的出发点,就是基于自己高于市场的认知,去追求超过市场平均回报的超额回报。因此在主动投资的基础上,再去多元分散,那就等同于把自己高于市场的认知给稀释了。当然,在这里决定主动投资的前提,是投资者自己确实具有高于市场平均水平的研究和认知。如果没有,还不如回到上面第一条,老老实实买个大盘指数ETF长期持有。
第四、在现实中,更实际的操作方法,可能是同时持有主动和被动投资组合。投资者可以考虑把自己的可投资资金一分为二,一部分专门放入低成本的被动型指数ETF,长期持有;而另一部分则专门用来做主动投资,去追求自己看好的行业或者公司。这样,就既能保证自己获得市场的长期平均回报,同时又给自己一个机会去证明一下,看有没有能力战胜市场,获得更好的超额回报。
Buying a special investment in artificial intelligence can ensure that the portfolio covers as much as possible. Different companies will minimize the probability of missing a certain company. What is the hottest investment track in the year? I am afraid that most readers will choose artificial intelligence. Since the announcement at the beginning of the year, many of us have been screened by various videos and small movies automatically generated by artificial intelligence. Of course, how artificial intelligence can improve productivity and how much revenue it brings to related companies seems to be an open question, but it is still an open question to artificial intelligence. Smart gold diggers selling shovels have earned a lot of money. The market value of NVIDIA, the market leader necessary for production, has exceeded one trillion dollars, ranking third in the world, second only to Apple and Microsoft. The legendary story of its founder Huang Renxun has also been reported by major media. As an ordinary investor, how can we get a share of this wave of scientific and technological revolution? I believe this is one of the most concerned issues for many readers. Undoubtedly, the most direct way is to buy a company in NVIDIA a few years ago. Stocks, but the problem is that we can't go back in time to buy stocks that are bound to soar in the future. In fact, in the field of artificial intelligence, there are thousands of investors who can think of betting on artificial intelligence tracks through Invista a few years ago. It may even be considered whimsical, so for many individual investors, another way is to buy stocks that specialize in artificial intelligence. These companies will not only invest in one or two companies, but will choose dozens. Buying more shares of companies can ensure that the investment portfolio covers as many different companies as possible, and the probability of missing a company will be minimized. Of course, even if it is only focused on investing in artificial intelligence, the number is very large. This is because artificial intelligence itself is a very broad concept, because it is the hottest investment theme in the last two years. Many companies choose to approach artificial intelligence and add artificial intelligence to their products, services or company promotion. A report released by the British venture capital company in shows that there is a start-up artificial intelligence company in Europe, only one of which is really doing artificial intelligence research and development. In other words, about the companies that claim to be artificial intelligence are doing business of selling dog meat just to rub off the popularity of artificial intelligence. Secondly, if we dig the concept of artificial intelligence into its scope, we can further subdivide it into industrial automation, non-industrial automation, printing language generation, automatic driving and so on. It is no exaggeration to say all this. Some sub-sectors are highly related to artificial intelligence, and the companies on the track can all be classified as artificial intelligence topics. Based on these standards, as of June, we can find about many artificial intelligences. If we only look at the scale of fund management of more than 100 million US dollars, then this number will be reduced to only about one. The investment strategies and emphasis of these industries are different, but they are all based on the artificial intelligence investment theme. The purpose is to help investors get the return on investment brought by the scientific and technological revolution led by artificial intelligence. If I If we carefully analyze these returns, we will find some interesting findings. For example, in the past month, only one of this artificial intelligence has exceeded the S&P index in the same period, and some of them have terrible returns. For example, one of them is called the capital scale of about 100 million US dollars. From the name, it can be seen that the return of this special investment in artificial intelligence and robot track in the past month is behind the S&P index in the same period, and the other one is called that its return in the past month is behind the S&P index in the same period. I must be surprised that I have bet on the right track. Why is the return of the hottest artificial intelligence industry not as good as the average return of the stock market? The main reason behind it is that the return of artificial intelligence stocks is very different. From the percentage of return of company stocks, the biggest winners are NVIDIA and Ultramicro Computer. In addition, the share prices of large-cap companies like Amazon, Microsoft and Meta-Universe Platform have also soared because of the concept of artificial intelligence, which means whether investors can finally. The key to getting a good return on investment lies in whether his portfolio includes NVIDIA, Amazon, Microsoft and other stocks and the proportion of these stocks. By the end of last year, the weights of NVIDIA, Amazon, Microsoft and Metauniverse in the S&P index were as high as respectively, and the return of the S&P index in the past month by the end of last year was as high as about, which came from the above-mentioned technology giants, while those who specialize in investing in artificial intelligence tracks may not be as highly concentrated on investment weights as the S&P index. This is mainly because the target of these investments is a track, not one or two companies. If you want to ensure that the whole track is bought, then you need to distribute the bullets evenly among as many companies as possible, instead of concentrating all of them on a few companies. This is why many artificial intelligences limit the maximum weight of any invested stock to or fund managers will intervene and rebalance it when the market value weight of a stock exceeds this ratio. Sell some high-weight company stocks and buy some low-weight company stocks to bring the weight distribution of the portfolio back to a more evenly distributed equilibrium state. This operation can ensure that investors will not miss the whole track, but it will drag down investors' returns when they encounter super-monster stocks like NVIDIA. From the above analysis, we learn something. First, it is much more difficult to invest and make profits by choosing the track and industry than many people think, even if you look at the artificial intelligence track and buy it. Fund investors who specialize in artificial intelligence industry may not be able to beat the market, and may even lag behind the average return of the market with great probability, which reminds us that we should leave a place for passive investment based on index in our portfolio at any time. Since it is difficult to beat passive investment, why not set aside a field in our portfolio, such as the total investment for passive investment? Second, it also shows that the threshold for active investment is very high, for example, some investors have to It is concluded that artificial intelligence is the outlet, but if your cognition is limited to this and you buy some artificial intelligence themes, in fact, it is far from high-quality active investment to get excess returns. Smart investors should have self-knowledge and understand how much effort it takes to get excess returns. Third, real active investment does not need diversification. Legend Buffett said on many occasions that he does not agree with diversifying his investment too much. Generally, it is enough for investors to buy at most one stock for a long time. Any investor's energy and cognition are bordered and it is impossible to master everything. Therefore, investors should have a choice to make themselves a certain. 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台
注册有任何问题请添加 微信:MVIP619 拉你进入群
打开微信扫一扫
添加客服
进入交流群
1.本站遵循行业规范,任何转载的稿件都会明确标注作者和来源;2.本站的原创文章,请转载时务必注明文章作者和来源,不尊重原创的行为我们将追究责任;3.作者投稿可能会经我们编辑修改或补充。