浅谈2024年比特币“减半”
“减半”是比特币在金融资产领域的真正独特之处。没有任何其他商品能像它一样有完全可计算的生产时间表，能让大众预先对其产能减半事件提前做出准备。
2020年的“减半”对比特币挖矿行业留下了不可磨灭的印记，而2024年的这次无疑也将带来重大的变化。为了尽可能避免其可能带来的影响，我们通过分析减半对比特币挖矿的核心指标（包括算力、难度和算力价格）以及比特币挖矿业务方面（矿机价格、托管费率和其他考虑因素）的影响做了一份报告（可在此处进行下载：https://hashrateindex.com/blog/content/files/2024/03/2024-Bitcoin-Halving-Report-Final.pdf）。
根据分析，在此提供以下要点：
1. 第四次比特币减半将在2024年4月19日大约13:30 UTC发生。
2. 如果当前币价格继续保持或适度增加，预计约3%-7%的比特币算力或将在减半后下线，矿工将在随后的难度调整中看到这些大致百分比的减少。
3. 如果币价从当前水平下降到约48000美元，那么预计将有约16%的比特币算力会下线，年底时算力将位于639EH/s-674 EH/s之间。
正如这份报告中指出，相信2024年减半与以往相比大有不同。当前正处于比特币牛市，加上受铭文和序数活动下交易费用大增，为许多矿工在区块奖励降至3.125 BTC后仍能保持积极性提供了机会。如果比特币的价格保持或上升，一小部分算力可能会下线。如果当前趋势持续，预计在接下来的一年里将看到算力缓慢增长，因为压缩的利润空间——由难度缓慢但稳定的增加所导致——将决定有多少算力能继续保持上线并盈利。
最后，尽管减半可能不会像之前想象的那样对矿工造成极大影响，但事件发生后的利润空间仍将变得十分有限。因此，矿工都应尽可能提高其挖矿效率，无论是通过固件更新还是挖矿设备更新，还是对挖矿收益、电价风险和比特币波动性实行对冲手段。
Halving is the real uniqueness of Bitcoin in the field of financial assets. No other commodity has a completely computable production schedule like it, which allows the public to prepare for the event of halving its production capacity in advance. Halving last year left an indelible mark on the bitcoin mining industry, and this year will undoubtedly bring about major changes. In order to avoid its possible impact as much as possible, we analyze the core indicators of halving bitcoin mining, including computational difficulty, computational price and ratio. In the mining business of special coins, a report was made on the influence of mining machine price, escrow rate and other considerations, which can be downloaded here. According to the analysis, the following points are provided here. The fourth bitcoin halving will take place on or about. If the current currency price continues to maintain or moderately increase the estimated bitcoin computing power, offline miners will see these approximate percentage reductions in the subsequent difficulty adjustment. If the currency price drops from the current level to about US dollars, it is expected that there will be about 10 bits. Currency computing power will go offline at the end of the year. As pointed out in this report, it is believed that halving the year is very different from the past. Currently, it is in a bitcoin bull market, and the transaction cost is greatly increased due to the activities of inscriptions and ordinal numbers, which provides an opportunity for many miners to remain motivated after the block reward is reduced. If the price of bitcoin remains or rises, a small part of the computing power may go offline. If the current trend continues, it is expected that the computing power will grow slowly in the next year because of the compressed profit margin. The slow but steady increase in difficulty will determine how much computing power can remain online and make profits. Finally, although halving may not have a great impact on miners as previously thought, the profit margin after the incident will still become very limited, so miners should try their best to improve their mining efficiency, whether through firmware update or mining equipment update or hedging the mining income, electricity price risk and bitcoin volatility. 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台
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